It is possible, but I would place it at less than 50/50, and that was part of the thing that I was getting worked up about either your earlier assertion that we would go to the lower $30ks (from the correction at $49k, remember) or your later assertion that we would go to the mid to upper $30ks from the upper $60ks.. and so those were the points that I had considered to be bettable in terms of my thinking that you were expecting too much of a dip in these here kinds of times.. which also put us back to either going below the 200-WMA or getting pretty damned close to it.. which I also stick by my prediction that we are not going to get within 20% of the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025 - and yeah, those are pretty bold claims coming from my camp, but I am willing to stand behind them in terms of my thinking that they are greater than 50% odds, so that if I enter into a 50/50 bet, my odds of winning are greater than my odds of losing... at least at this point in our bitcoin journey. and if the conditions change, I may well prefer to retract my bet.. .. I don't have to stick to such bet, but if you catch me right now, those bet proposals are still on the table... and I think that either one of them would still be fun, even if they end up not being a winner for me.
Your general reasoning is a good reason to consider the bet that's for sure. I was wrong about a deeper correction from $48K, although technically I was never wrong about the idea of $30Ks at upper $60Ks, I simply pointing out that
if a top occured from there would likely lead to $30Ks (more likely than finding supporting above that level).
I don't know if you were correct or not - because for sure the level of feasibility of a correction might well have to do with the extent to which the price might be going up faster than support can keep up with it, and yeah, so if you presume it is getting out of control, but your models are not sufficiently accounting for some fundamentals (such as the exponential s-curve adoptions), then you might presume that it is going up faster than it should when in fact it might be nearly impossible to measure what it should do since we have never had an asset that is exactly like this particular asset, namely king daddy cornz.
But I never said we would top out in the $60Ks, if anything the opposite is true, but it's somewhat beside the point. I was actually more convinced we'd go higher than previous ATH once we got there, even if I still considered a 50% correction as likely (from a new ATH). The issue here is that I'm only willing to consider a bet with at minimum a top formation. Because to put it simply I'm not naive enough to make a bet based on price topping out at X.
From my perspective, you are still waffling.
The bet for me would be less about whether there will be a correction (that there already is) but how deep the correction could go.
Does that mean that you are changing the terms..? As soon as we seem to be honing in on a potential bet, you change the terms to try to make them more favorable to you? This seemingly bet negotiation is not going too well.
What I believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.
I probably was just getting worked up over the way that I was interpreting the way that you were talking about some of those lower price scenarios as if they had odds that were much greater than 50/50.. Earlier, from my perspective, you seemed to have had been talking about those lower price scenarios as if they had 70-80% odds. .. and yeah, maybe I misread you, but that was how I understood your words, even if you did not assign actual numbers, words also can carry meanings related to likelihood of happening.. .and you may well appreciate that some of us will get on the case of others who are describing fringe scenarios as if they were even close to base case scenarios.. Nothing wrong with being prepared for extremes, even though there are problems to discuss extreme scenarios as if they were base case scenarios..
Yeh probably. I'm not even 60/40 that price goes to $40K either. That would be more like 52/48 if I had to assign random numbers. Probably 55/45 that we reach $50K at least.
The more you type, the less committal you seem to get.. it is like you are working against the possibility of any bet being possible.
We need more disagreement in order to get into potentially bettable territories.
So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over given a break of $60K.
I might be willing to consider that bet.. but I find it problematic that you are not willing to enter into such bet unless we get below $60k first.. .. but I must admit it is close to bettable.. even though fuck Coinbase.. We use Bitstamp in these here parts.. why the fuck would any of us want to rely on Coinbase for figuring out our price points for any potential bet when those twats cannot even keep their fucking exchange operating during supposed high volume times. There is a reason that Buddy is coming at us with Bitstamp prices for the past 10 years or so.., even though he took a break for a few years... (went on strike)
OK Bitstamp instead, sure.
Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:
I might have to think about it. It is getting close to bettable, especially if you would be requiring a 50% correction from the current top, which is currently $73,794 on bitstamp and therefore $36,897.. so you would ONLY win if the price dropped at or below $36,897 on Bitstamp... which I am thinking that may well be bettable, even if you would require the BTC price to go below $60k before the bet would trigger otherwise I don't get shit.
which you should appreciate how that is a little bothersome...
I'm not suggesting we make a bet unless price is around $60K, or has already gone below. Sure this could mean that if price dumped to $55K and failed to recover, there would likely be no bet. But otherwise, below $61.4K I'm interested. $60K was more of a round number reference. As price is finding support again from the 200 MA on 4hr (
as anticipated) then I'm not jumping into a bet here for obvious reasons. I'd be better off re-considering around $80K. Bistamp otherwise does provide a considerably lower price requirement, though I understand and respect the desire to stick with this exchange. It's certainly one I'd have to think about, based on breaking $40K but not necessary reaching $37K either.
We are back to not yet bettable, then. Ok..
Another issue is that there are limited ways that I would win the bet, but what about a timeline for the bet or other ways to invalidate the bet? The bet becomes invalid if the BTC price goes back above $69k? or you just seem to have too many ways out of not losing the bet.
2024 would be fine for me. Depends on the bet, if it were $40K or $80K that's clear cut I think (even if takes a while).
If we do which one comes first ($40k or $80k), then there would not be any need for a timeline on that. It is a pretty narrow range, and I am pretty sure such bet would be resolved in 2024, and if it were to not be resolved in 2024, then so be it... I would be o.k. with just allowing it to keep riding.. It surely would be strange if BTC were not to break out of such range within the next 9 months or even within a year. I would probably be shocked if that were to occur.
Otherwise 2024 would be fine for me. Assuming I'd lose either way by 2025 that is. As a summary, this is the bet I'd be more willing to take, and I think is fairer for the both of us, based on my previous reasoning that the % difference would be the same going to $40K or $80K from approx $60K.
But you are not even agreeing to it. Don't you need to the price to drop first before entering into such bet? It should already be bettable or pretty damned close to being bettable, or if the BTC price got back down to $61k-ish..
I am willing to go along with some of your extra demands, since I am continuing to presume that we are still in no man's land within the ballpark of $55k to $82k so even if there are some unfavorable movements within that range, I think that there is an extra bonus of UPpity price pressure that is caused by being in what I still believe to be no man's land.
And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.
Well yeah. you would not be getting quite 50%, and it could be true that the BTC price could barely break below $40k and then not go any further... that is pretty low.. so I am having my doubts, and I think that the bet needs to be that the BTC price has to break $40k it cannot just touch on $40k in order for you to win...especially since you are already making several conditions, but it is still seeming bettable. even if I am barely feeling much greater than 50% odds in terms of the current framing... it is not like a slam dunk, but it still seems to be within my parameters of a potentially acceptable bet.. despite your lack of commitment to enter right now and you have some additional condition prior to feeling strong enough to enter such bet.
That would be fair, I'd only consider the bet as lower than $40K (even if only by a cent and based on a wick). Given that's ultimately the level you seem
convinced confident price won't break. I'm otherwise not considering this a slam dunk bet either, and I wouldn't be willing to bet much on it.
I am thinking something in territory of 0.001BTC or 0.002 BTC. For me, it would be more about the principle of the commitment of the bet rather than the amount of the bet... yet at the same time, it should be enough so that it makes sense in regards to managing UTXOs.
It's be more for the lolz and fun rather than any potential satoshi gain. There'd be more fun to be had with offering double or nothing odds to such scenarios as reaching $50K or $70K once the bet is applied (from both sides). Even if it'd mainly be taunting, it's all fun and games.
We might have to see if any taunting scenarios might come about.
(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)
If the BTC price reached $80k first, and then it later corrected down to sub $40k then you would feel that you should have had been the rightful winner of the bet. You are trying to make sure you win no matter what? hahahahaha
I'm just pointing out ways in which I could lose the bet and should consider my options here. Ideally the bet would be reaching $40K in 2024 or not, but I realise even with your confidence in that not happening, that this wouldn't be a favourable bet you, without winning the bet if price reached $80K for example. So just trying to compromise here, even if it's not necessarily in my best interests at all.
I had not thought about it like that... and yeah, which one comes first ($40k or $80k) might be more favorable to me, but still we have to break a further $6,206 additional price appreciation for me to win the bet, and are we conceding that reaching $80k is enough or does it have to break above $80k? You know that Bitstamp no longer permits the placing of orders in fractions of a dollar so there is no winning of bets based on cents... and for me.. I think actually reaching $80k first before breaking below $40k, which means going above $79,999 should be enough for me to win the bet.
I did already suggest that I don't think that the BTC price is going to ever go below $40k again (at least not in 2024 and/or 2025).. which surely I did make a pretty bold claim, but if we bet on something like that, then it may well take some time for the bet to play out, so now you are wanting to change it to some higher number rather than $80k.. so I would not win.. until it got above some higher number and you are finally willing to give up on sub $40k ever being reachable in 2024 or 2025..
2024 would be fine. We can take 2025 off the table here. I wouldn't even feel hard done by if it reached there in 2025, I'd probably have a lot more to be concerned about if that happened.
Setting a date would not be a necessary component of the bet if we have the breaking range of $40k to $80k - and the only other bet propositions that I recall making were that 1) the BTC spot price will not go below 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025, and the other one was that the BTC spot price high would be higher in 2025 than in 2024, because you were suggesting that we might peak in 2024, and I think that is also bettable.
another dumpy weekend ahead..?
Personally, I am not going to presume a failure to go up merely because there has been a failure to go up over the last week and the previous weekend..
At this point, I believe that there is no presumption in either price direction.
