Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 540.

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:32:55 AM

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter! There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$. I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$.

People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 (http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction". Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper. And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right? But I still wanted to read the paper myself. And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site. I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!".

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

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Enabling the maximal migration

I am going to lol if we get over 50 on a weekend.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:43:52 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:41:46 AM

(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

Great, where will you go short? I can borrow you some. Grin

Hmmm. any suggestions? Cheesy

My position is about 500. What do you think is the best way to change this to a position of -1000, (so that I profit $1000 for each dollar it loses value)?

I don't care about technicalities. What matters to me is

- Liquidity. Possible to enter and exit contract within reasonable time (after all it is 1500 BTC change in position)
- Security. I don't want to lose my BTC or profits.
- Fees. Yeah this kind of play is expensive but I am a very fee-averse person and quite skilled in maths

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:41:46 AM

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:37:07 AM

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

Yet.

(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

Great, where will you go short? I can lend you some. Grin

EDIT: Well, things suddenly moved just as we spoke.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:38:59 AM

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:32:55 AM

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

Yes, my post was to confirm what you said

Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500

I think I am actually among the luckiest ones by being forced to hold my bag during the 2011 crash, having seen the ups and downs made many of us stronger hands I believe.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:37:07 AM

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

Yet.

(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:37:07 AM

Quote from: lebing on March 09, 2013, 04:27:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:20:20 AM

Quote from: Technomage on March 08, 2013, 06:35:51 PM

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

It usually happens on Sunday or Monday - but yeah - I have the feeling that this time people just won't sell - too much good news lately.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 04:32:55 AM

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

Yes, my post was to confirm what you said

Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Lines on a chart Wink

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: lebing on March 09, 2013, 04:27:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:20:20 AM

Quote from: Technomage on March 08, 2013, 06:35:51 PM

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: lebing on March 09, 2013, 04:27:21 AM

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months.

Yes, this is what I mean. After such a spike in volume, a low volume is a dangerous sign. If either side comes back with vengeance, the volume will shoot up and price will move. It is the bulls that need to defend the current price. Until Monday, I believe there is much greater chance for a big move to the down side rather than up. But if we hold $40-$42, the bulls win, cause after this, no one will panic anymore and uptrend will be confirmed.

Rather funny, the daily chart does not even show a dip

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:27:51 AM

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 03:42:48 AM

eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ...

I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier:
- skill
- existing capital
- hard work
- luck

And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage.

I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin.

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

zby

legendary

Activity: 1594

Merit: 1001

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 03:42:48 AM

Quote from: The-Real-Link on March 09, 2013, 03:36:59 AM

Agreed. I got in early. Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall. Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy. But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price. But who's to say the same isn't true today? I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem, if the early adopters had mined a hell load of coins and hoarded and refused to sell, the economy around bitcoin would not have developed, the price would have been nowhere near what it is now, to get people to join, they must redistributed the coins by selling them, (they may have done it involuntarily, we are all pawns of the invisible hand after all) eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

In Bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter!

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: oakpacific on March 09, 2013, 03:42:48 AM

eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ...

I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier:
- skill
- existing capital
- hard work
- luck

And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage.

I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin.

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: rpietila on March 09, 2013, 04:20:20 AM

Quote from: Technomage on March 08, 2013, 06:35:51 PM

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Technomage on March 08, 2013, 06:35:51 PM

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: The-Real-Link on March 08, 2013, 09:37:05 PM

That's a $17,000+ buy... wow.

Dude, I was panic buying just about.. um... 9 days ago. Had €5000 and the rate was €25.4 per bitcoin. Hit "market order" and it shot up to €26.2something making a new all time high in the process. That felt also good

Disclaimer: I did not add to my own position. I may or may not hold bitcoins.

Wekkel

legendary

Activity: 3122

Merit: 1538

yes

Meanwhile, price isn't going anywhere. Normally, that's to the advantage of the bulls, but a correction still lures around the corner.

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Because its a wall thread:

Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 540. (Read 1811613 times)