This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
Don't be too sure.
If this continues beyond $19, bears will be wary to dump in large amount lest they may fall into bear trap.
Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - page 754. (Read 1811605 times)
Don't be too sure.
If this continues beyond $19, bears will be wary to dump in large amount lest they may fall into bear trap.
This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
Don't be too sure.
Speculation is the main factor driving the price, so bitcoin will always be overvalued.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's.
OK, now I see how that can make sense though I don't see how realistic nor how practical it is to take speculation about the future of Bitcoin out of the over/under-value assessment. I think we can all agree demand for Bitcoin for the purposes of immediate purchases or immediate transfer overseas etc. is speculation-free. How about those buying it as a store of value? Those who believe there is no future to Bitcoin obviously will not buy for that purpose so are only those hoping it holds its value included as non-speculators or do you also include those who hope it may raise in value? What about those who are buying for ideological reasons, because they believe in the principles underlying Bitcoin? Do they need to be hoping it will succeed but not hoping for the value of their holding to increase to count? However you get to your figure I guess we're talking about tiny numbers and yes, the available formulae for this kind of thing would then lead us to an extremely low valuation.
But I suspect the vast majority are buying for ideological, speculation (for-long-term-gain or short-term trading) or any combination of those, and that these dwarf the influence of 'pure' non-speculation demand on the price. These I guess are mostly people who are enthused about Bitcoin not so much because of what it is doing today but because of its immense potential. To me it just doesn't make sense to discard these considerations in establishing whether the Bitcoin at today's price is under or over-valued (excepting of course those who trade exclusively on the basis of technicals).
"Speculation is the main factor driving the price, so bitcoin will always be overvalued.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's".
This I have to put on my all in a frame!
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's".
This I have to put on my all in a frame!
there are just as many speculators who disbelieve as there as those who do believe.
Adam, seriously dude cut your losses. The bull is not leaving the party for quite some time.
"Speculation is the main factor driving the price, so bitcoin will always be overvalued.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's".
This I have to put on my all in a frame!
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's".
This I have to put on my all in a frame!
This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
On what basis do you conclude that? My take is that Bitcoin is still undervalued* and that the only reason we had the shakeout is because enough people believe growth that fast shouldn't be sustainable. If it really is as undervalued as I believe then the an increase in price closer to a realistic evaluation is only waiting on enough people realising how undervalued it still is.Sometimes such things are easier for people on the outside to see than those who may be over-familiar with previous patterns. Given that so many here are not comfortable with fast growth and may be looking at things from the perspective of their purchase price it is not surprising every now and again that we have a good shake out.
However there are as far as I can see and as far as others have pointed out quite eloquently, plenty of fundamentals pointing to an exponential growth (at least for some time) which eventually, despite the pressure of those refusing to believe it, is bound to be reflected in the shape of the growth chart.
* This whole post is based on the undervalued assumption which is the assumption upon which my trading decisions are made. This is not to say that I deny I may be wrong. It's not what I'm arguing. What I'm questioning is why others who are bullish in the bigger picture are seeing an unlikelihood of buying pressure continuing after the weekend?
Speculation is the main factor driving the price, so bitcoin will always be overvalued.
If bitcoin was worth 17$ due to supply and demand, speculation would drive the price in the 100's.
This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
On what basis do you conclude that? My take is that Bitcoin is still undervalued* and that the only reason we had the shakeout is because enough people believe growth that fast shouldn't be sustainable. If it really is as undervalued as I believe then the an increase in price closer to a realistic evaluation is only waiting on enough people realising how undervalued it still is.Sometimes such things are easier for people on the outside to see than those who may be over-familiar with previous patterns. Given that so many here are not comfortable with fast growth and may be looking at things from the perspective of their purchase price it is not surprising every now and again that we have a good shake out.
However there are as far as I can see and as far as others have pointed out quite eloquently, plenty of fundamentals pointing to an exponential growth (at least for some time) which eventually, despite the pressure of those refusing to believe it, is bound to be reflected in the shape of the growth chart.
* This whole post is based on the undervalued assumption which is the assumption upon which my trading decisions are made. This is not to say that I deny I may be wrong. It's not what I'm arguing. What I'm questioning is why others who are bullish in the bigger picture are seeing an unlikelihood of buying pressure continuing after the weekend?
This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
Adam you know how this works.
This rally is pointless, if we hit 19 again we'll just get another smack down.
To me it looks like the market reacted very calmly to the "dumps". We've seen no large drop, price is over 17 and even the timing of the dumps was perfect (weekend coming up).
Based on that I would say that there is a good possibility that the rally continues next week. It's not certain of course but the reaction of the market has been bullish constantly so maybe there is still plenty of upside left.
Based on that I would say that there is a good possibility that the rally continues next week. It's not certain of course but the reaction of the market has been bullish constantly so maybe there is still plenty of upside left.
I am more surprised to see so much liquidity. People, it seems, sold because they wanted to buy back cheaper rather than move the money from the exchange. If that is true, then the bull market will continue for a while.
The timing does strongly imply an intention to buy back during the dump+dip. And that is what we are seeing. Additionally, buying interest above 5 is > 200000 BTC, a condition which is rarely seen before tuesday and never on the weekend as long as I've been tracking it (a few months). However it seems obvious (but not formally tested by me) that some portion of the change in this metric is simply due to the greater space between 5 and 17 vs 5 and 10 or 13...
me thinks the upward pressure is stronger then we have previously suspected...
Yehhh, I did a panic buy and feel good about it.
This time, I didn't panic sell and also feel good about it.
me thinks the upward pressure is stronger then we have previously suspected...
Yehhh, I did a panic buy and feel good about it.
To me it looks like the market reacted very calmly to the "dumps". We've seen no large drop, price is over 17 and even the timing of the dumps was perfect (weekend coming up).
Based on that I would say that there is a good possibility that the rally continues next week. It's not certain of course but the reaction of the market has been bullish constantly so maybe there is still plenty of upside left.
Based on that I would say that there is a good possibility that the rally continues next week. It's not certain of course but the reaction of the market has been bullish constantly so maybe there is still plenty of upside left.
I am more surprised to see so much liquidity. People, it seems, sold because they wanted to buy back cheaper rather than move the money from the exchange. If that is true, then the bull market will continue for a while.
me thinks the upward pressure is stronger then we have previously suspected...
What is going on with those week-end rally?
Wow, a spike to 18.
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