Topic: Warning to the bulls... - page 4. (Read 8219 times)

Thank you.  It may  or may not be a relevant metric, but interesting that you have captured the data.  Time series analysis can be fun, but it also might be random, or a sentiment of the general movement of the trading.

thats actually great news.  congratulations.

you forgot, that by definition a bitcoin mining person is a bitcoin bull. why sell if prices continue to grow? 

The divergence is back to being huge again:



@old_engineer: I don't think the money was necessarily new, it could have just as easily come have come from off the order books on mtgox, or from bitcoinica. There is no way to know for sure if it is new money or not.

@Blitzboom: I don't know about you, but I know that I am making a decent income from my bitcoin business.

Before this most recent spike a single 60k BTC sell would not have taken the price to $2.  It wouldn't have even broken $3.  Perhaps subsequent selling would have broken $3, but even that's not certain.

There is no Bitcoin economy. Bitcoin is currently nothing but a USD middleman USD => BTC => USD and a speculative investment.

Or have you seen people earning Bitcoin wages yet?

I saw the same high possibility of a drop as you did, and I also sold out before today's rally.  It's not really being "wrong": no one can forecast one big player buying $250k worth of bitcoins. The bid side didn't budge, either, so it was all new money - very unexpected.

If that had been a 60k btc sell, the price would have hit $2, no question about it.  It's still a small and unpredictable market.

I don't get the joke...

HAHAHAHA

I'll wait a few days and eat my hat if I am wrong. I don't have a problem with being proved wrong. Anything that strengthens the bitcoin economy is good, even if I have made a balls of my trading decisions. There is nothing stopping me from buying back in, but I still think my data will be proved correct at least to some extent. This could well be the last push. The only thing I wish is that I had waited a little longer.

i dare say an apology is coming from somewhere!

i forgot to mention that the Bitcoinica users were hit especially hard as Zhou's algorithm took the price to 4.95 at the time, LOL!

so many ppl got liquidated in that one and he even had to reverse some trades.  i don't think he should have done that b/c once you capitulate to clients like that, you're doomed to having to do it again.  he is creating a problem for himself.

I know. That was my poll thread actually.

Thank you for clarifying! That's what I was thinking, but wasn't too sure. I've got caught in those a couple times, in fact, the one you're referring to. Luckily, I managed to get back on with a slight gain.

about 10d ago we had one of enormous proportions.  the strategy circulating around here at the time was sell or short into all spikes since they inevitably come back down.

at the time the price had been stuck @ 3.2 and the MCO had decreased to unsustainable levels.  i could see that a big move was imminent and indeed it spiked to 3.7.  as the sellers and shorts stepped back in and brought the price back down to 3.5, a second ramp occurred taking the price to 4.5. 

the sellers/shorts were essentially assed raped.  as i'm typing this we're seeing it again...

What is this "double ramp" you speak of?

I disagree. According to a fairly recent poll, most people in this forum are mainly trading for more BTC. But that is sort of too black and white, at the end of the day what I care about is my purchasing power and the value of my investment in general. I see it as only temporary that we need to think so much about the fiat value of our BTC, if Bitcoin continues to grow we won't have to, eventually.

The correct way to think about it is that the value of your BTC increases, in general. It increases in relation to everything. Not only in relation to dollars or euro. Bitcoin still has very limited usability as a medium of exchange so it's clear that we need to compare it to fiat, at least somewhat, but that's something I hope will continue to become a smaller issue in the years to come.

As far as who's bear and who's not, it depends. I'm of course a long term bull, always have been, but I did revert to bear in the short term in the time between September and November. Now I've been a bull on all levels for a while again because I see that the trends are changing. And my long term view is actually more bullish than it has ever been, my confidence that Bitcoin will actually amount to something, has increased.

I'm not trying to imply anything. That post was in response to PatrickHarnett's question.

@tehnomage: I'm not curious why there has been a recent increase in the number of bearish threads, isn't it pretty obvious? For the same reason that the bulls are constantly posting threads about the 'rocket taking off'. We have reached the peak of this rally according to some, and they are trying to get their arguments across.

What I have done is try to be as neutral as I could with this thread (as much as I can, it is impossible to eliminate bias) and let the data speak for itself. It's limited I'll grant you, but certainly should give even the most ardent and blinkered bull pause for thought.

After an increase of almost 100% over the past month, there is naturally going to be a price correction back to lower levels, and if this is true growth it will continue up again from there. This has absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin's suitability as a currency, it is as a result of market speculation. The price has to be tested in both directions if growth to continue.

I don't think any of the bears here believe that bitcoin is doomed. I certainly don't, and I know that I am only temporarily a bear. I am a long term bull, but also a realist. I think in fact that the bears actually believe more firmly in the future success of bitcoin than the bulls, because they want more btc, while the bulls only care about their fiat profits! Kind of ironic, eh?

seriously guys; watch out for the Double Ramp...

LOL, Spring is here!