Topic: Warning to the bulls... - page 5. (Read 8239 times)

It could be in part because, we have seen many instances, where the price rises, and is short lived at the higher level. We're all kind of used to this routine, or maybe expect it. When the big player(s) dump massive amounts of coins, some lose big, and we are all trying to avoid that.

As I write this, the wall at $4.30 was just breached!  

"trying" is the operative word.

I think it's obvious, especially with the data provided by mjcmurphy.  Lots of people have sold in the past few weeks and they want the price to go down so they can buy back in.  Some of them are taking to the forum to try to nudge the price in the direction they want it to go.  Simple as that.

I am curious to why there is suddenly a spike of these "price is going down" threads. My main explanation is that some people are not happy that they missed the $2-$3 buying zone which might be never coming back. They are desperately trying to get the price lower to jump in. Not necessarily the agenda of the person who started this thread, but there is another new active poster in this forum area that is a rather obvious case.

To me the fundamentals are massively strong now and Bitcoin is going to way higher prices, on a sustainable basis. There are two important aspects to this, one is that the stronger the upswing looks like, the more traders will take a long position. I managed to take a long position a while ago actually but as it is with that type of position, I'm certainly not selling now. Nor am I selling at $5 etc. In fact I will only sell if I see a clear bubble situation, the ideal would be if I never needed to sell at all. I could simply have them as savings and use them when Bitcoin becomes more widely accepted.

The second aspect is that some people, most notably Revalin, seems to base Bitcoin fundamentals on its usage as a medium of exchange. That is a flawed approach in my opinion because Bitcoin will always be used more as a store of value so it's actually possible for bitcoins to reach quite a high value based on mostly speculation. It will require a higher sustained market cap of course so that the price is more stable and people start to keep long positions in a more patient way. But I see this happening because Bitcoin is the ultimate store of value and I'm personally very tempted to increase my Bitcoin investments even further. It simply beats everything.

The best thing about it is that it's not just a store of value, it's a very convenient money transfer mechanism as well. If it were possible, I would use bitcoins for everything. But the growth of such an economy is slow, it'll take many years even in the best case to reach that point. Before we reach a market cap high enough it's necessary to constantly look for bubbles but we're not in a bubble yet, we're in the process of recovering from a massively oversold market.

What is that supposed to imply?

I guess if you have time to wait you post an offer and if you care less about price and just want asap you go to the market. So recently the sellers have been more impatient?

That's to be expected after such a huge rally, it is also natural that it took time - because people did not know when the rally stopped.  But it is about to change - too many threads trying to talk the price down with a very small effect.

If you say so. If the data scares you, or makes you doubtful and uncertain, don't blame the data.
When you try to suggest that objective and empirical data is FUD, the problem is on your end my friend...

They represent the active trades that have actually taken place on gox. I.e. if I buy 1btc, someone who has an unfulfilled ask sitting on the order book sells me the 1btc, but it is the 1btc buy that is being counted as the initiating trade not the other way around. If you post an order for a price that is not currently available, it will sit there until it is fulfilled. And it is the fulfilling order that is counted.

FUD

Interesting set of numbers.  Given every buy is matched to a sell, what are these numbers? It's not total gox depth (BTC or USD). 

For example, there are buy orders for 27 million coins ($700k) and asks for 234k coins (some stupid number of $).  Last 24 hours 43000 coins for 180,000.

Right and wrong are irrelevant. What matters is supply and demand.

I'm not really collecting much information on price movements, as my strategies are over the long term and I don't like to bet on short term price fluctuations. I am more interested in market depth and trading volumes.

I was thinking in terms of simple price volatility. 

I don't take requests!

In seriousness, my data is pretty limited at the moment - I have only been collecting since the 14th, but I do have these, which represent the daily changes in both supply and demand on mtgox's orderbook. The demand figures are in $, and the supply figures are in btc.



Again, make of it what you will.

EDIT: I will add these to the OP as well.

Can you do a chart of rolling volatility from your data? Use say a 20 day window and express it as an annualised percentage ?  

Things can be right out you qualify them with probablities.

...when it comes to markets.

2+2=4

Hyperbole is never correct .