Was $17.5K the low? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: STT on July 15, 2022, 06:58:15 PM

Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression. I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.

I agree price is looking positive in the short-term. What happens around $23K (top of the bear flag channel) if it get's there again will be another story I think. This would be the second proper re-test of the 200WMA as well as the 50 Day MA that is now around this price. Last time price saw the 50 Day MA was during the rejection in April around $42.5K, so this will be a key barrier to break for longer-term upwards price movements.

So far price is following the bear flag fractal that I drew a couple of days ago, while naturally facing some short-term rejection from the mid-level of the bear channel:

Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 14, 2022, 09:55:36 AM

Quote from: STT on July 15, 2022, 06:58:15 PM

Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

I think a bit sideways would be ok, but too much would see price lose momentum and return to support levels imo. Failure to break $21K would only confirm a lower high and confirm weakness.

STT

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Very good action today to indicate positive BTC price progression. I would hope at least we continue with positive trajectory for this weekend and build some leeway for any sell occurring next week.
There was some hesitation starting more frequently at 20.5k and around the MA, note the pins and sideways drift but resolving above the week and monthly moving averages is worth taking as a positive vs the quite severe swerve off course of 17.5k It helps that Dollar weakened today but also thats why I expect further tests in future before the OP idea 'the low' is answered.

Sideways from here would be fine and then later hope price is also able to beat the prior recent high and build higher on a regular basis.

BitcoinPanther

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 05:23:02 AM

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

TA is very important in trading. Just as you stated, just like a compass to sailors, TA directs traders and pinpoint entry point and exit point in trading. It is really essential knowledge to acquire. It is best to partner with fundamental analysis since there is no perfect system but complementing methods do exist.

About the Bitcoin market, some analyst states that it is highly unlikely for BTC to fall below $17.5k as long as the resistance @ $19k is not broken, but if it did, we have a possibility of witnessing a $14k below BTC.

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: wxa7115 on July 15, 2022, 08:56:52 AM

Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 05:23:02 AM

~

but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.

That's true. It's the reason traders are advised to stick to a system that works for them. Don't jump from one trading system to another. Find a system and then hone it and get something close to a perfect handling of it, bearing in mind that there's no holy grail anywhere when it comes to trading. Stick to that system. Consistency breeds confidence and that should be a watch word for every trader. By being consistent, traders can easily have a handle on their trades.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 05:23:02 AM

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

This is a nice way to put it, people get obsessed about the idea of the perfect system in which they never lose a single trade and they are always earning money, TA is just a guiding tool and nothing more, and just as in the example you give sailors used very rudimentary tools back in the day to find their way over a journey that lasted for months and they still got to their desired destination.

And TA is the same, maybe we will have some false signals along the way but if you follow your strategy close enough then it is just a matter of time until you will be able to make profits even during this bear market.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 13, 2022, 08:41:51 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 09, 2022, 04:15:29 PM

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Despite dropping -6% within an hour (as you put it, CPI wasn't fully priced in it seems), we're now only -2% down on the 4hr and holding $19K level support for now, so the news doesn't look that bad to me:

Obviously in the mid to long-term it doesn't look good what so ever, we're now establishing a bear flag targeting much lower levels if it confirms with a breakdown below support, but considering how this is supposed to be very bearish for Bitcoin, currently it looks mildly bearish as support levels are holding (to reiterate, for now at least). -2% within 4 hours isn't that bad for Bitcoin given the bear trend imo.

Quote from: buwaytress on July 13, 2022, 08:41:51 AM

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

This seems like it will be the more relevant news, and what many are waiting for (as opposed to CPI numbers). Agree strapping in may very well be required in the very near future.

Quote from: buwaytress on July 13, 2022, 08:41:51 AM

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

To me, in the short-term, still looks like we can re-test $21K, even $23K, before eventually breaking down much lower. But alas we'll see.

(Since typing we are now only -1% on the 4hr)

buwaytress

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 09, 2022, 04:15:29 PM

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

Know I already responded to this but seems like the pricing in for US CPI fell short of actual results. 9.1% was the official figure an hour ago, highest in 40 years, and most of the market priced in 8.8% so of course BTC lost quite a bit immediately. A bit frustrating to take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, and the key is that they actually seemed to have fudged the figures as much as possible and still ended up with a higher than expected rate.

Already seeing the half rate interest hike due in 2 weeks now upgraded to 0.75... so expect more of that buying the rumour to happen now. And if the Fed gets even more aggressive (CPI will certainly tempt them) we have to strap in for worse.

Seem to keep reaching bottom but the actual news just keeps getting worse. Fully expecting to test 18k again. Of course, all this is short term. Just wish it wasn't so painful =)

tygeade

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Quote from: Oshosondy on July 11, 2022, 09:56:48 AM

Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 05:23:02 AM

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

The sailor and compass is a great analogy. If you have a compass, it shows you where the north is, but it doesn't show if you if there is an island between where you need to sail and your ship. It means that if you go straight north, where you need to go, then you will hit another island, which means you will need to make so all adjustments to avoid hitting it. That is how the compass mindset works.

Definitely the TA will help you see the direction you should take, but there will always be adjustments that you will need to make in order to avoid crashing down. It won't be easy, it will take some time to get there, but it will always be possible and I believe you will make a good profit if you get used to it.

Oshosondy

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 05:23:02 AM

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

As well for me, but in short term. The short term analyses and the daily prices of bitcoin that I often check can help me to speculate what the price of bitcoin can be in the a year or 2 years to come. What I am just saying is that I do not use indicator to hold, just to trade. To hold, I prefer to use Glassnode information like exchange inflow and outflow, bitcoin halving and other related things about long term speculation. Indicators are essential to traders, not holders, that is what I am saying.

Mpamaegbu

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Oshosondy; yes, quite alright we both know this is a speculative market and no one should be taken to have an accurate prediction until it goes into hindsight and then we reconcile what was said and what actually happened. The reason I asked you that question was to find out if you took your assessment based on TA because you showed an element of certainty as captured in your few words in the quoted part below 👇

Quote from: Oshosondy on June 19, 2022, 06:39:55 PM

I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Despite my conviction that we are in a pure speculative market, I still believe in the use of indicators to aid my navigation of the market like sailors their compasses. TA is still a vital part of trading for me.

Oshosondy

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Quote from: Mpamaegbu on July 11, 2022, 03:25:58 AM

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

TA for bitcoin in long term prediction? Even if I have it and most professional, that does not mean it will be correct, even I can not believe in what analysts will say about the price of bitcoin in long term, some of them even said bitcoin will hit $100000, some can overestimate, some can underestimate. Bitcoin may fall below $12000, it may not fall below, but just saying that if bitcoin falled below $14000, the volatile it has in 2016 to 2020 will be lower than the present 4 years volatility, the reason I said it can not fall below $14000. It is possible bitcoin price fall below but my sentiment is around $14000 to $15000.

buwaytress

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 09, 2022, 04:15:29 PM

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

Yup, and we saw that the last rate hike too, all that nosediving happened an entire week before the actual announcement, and as soon as the 0.75 rate was confirmed, we actually saw a recovery. Not sure now how it'll all look like as we look headed down to test 20k again before US Monday arrives, but I suspect we'll see a repeat recovery IF rate is the same. Job numbers actually was surprisingly good so if the rate hike is a little lower than expected then we could very well see a strong surge out of oversold area.

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: Oshosondy on June 19, 2022, 06:39:55 PM

I do not think bitcoin price can decrease down to $12000, people are predicting $14000 or $15000 to be the lowest price or that means bitcoin becomes more volatile after this halving than 2016 halving to 2020 before the last halving.

The market is bullish presently as bitcoin increased back to $20000 and moving towards $21000, but if the bear market continues, I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

Do you've any TA handle on this to strengthen your position or it's just another guts feeling? I asked this because I've gone through comments online of market analysts who put it around $12,500. While I admit that we are in a highly speculative market where no one truly can say what direction price is headed, I've to point out that some of these analysts predicted that Bitcoin would crash this heavy when it was still on high above $50k. So, we can't say it will never get to that low point. Recently, before this surge, price was around $18k then, one of those analysts mentioned that Bitcoin would get to $23k but that it would be a bull trap before it went down again. I think that's where we currently are at.

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Quote from: STT on July 09, 2022, 01:56:53 PM

Quote from: boltz on July 07, 2022, 10:55:17 AM

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective. Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term. After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength. I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

We are still trying to break that resistance level, its very critical for Bitcoin because we see another failed attempt, most probably many will sell again since the next scenario could be Bitcoin hitting the support level again. We’ve seen this before, a strong comeback will usually happen after another drop, we might still see red candles but hopefully the $17k mark was already the bottom price for this bear market.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 09, 2022, 01:33:48 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 09, 2022, 08:35:24 AM

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

With everyone expecting this negative effect, there's a good chance it's already been priced in imo. In the same context of "buy the rumour, sell the news", then bears appear to have already "sold the rumour", the question is whether they will then "buy the news" as it were. It would be very bullish if when this negative news arrives Bitcoin doesn't dump afterwards, that much is sure.

For now in the short-term, price seems relatively strong despite impending bad news on it's way. That much is a positive sign for now.

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Quote from: STT on July 09, 2022, 01:56:53 PM

Quote from: boltz on July 07, 2022, 10:55:17 AM

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective. Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term. After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength. I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

we are not supposed to be cashing out due to speculation of cryptocurrency. I know that people who is inquisitive of disvalue of bitcoin are the ones that will be desperate of withdrawing attention for more investment. The fraction of bitcoin values is dependable due to what you observe and your notification about cryptocurrency, if we follow speculation we can end up by making a huge mistake.

STT

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Quote from: boltz on July 07, 2022, 10:55:17 AM

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again

Its more regularity then the absolute price objective. Its almost certain we get a sell off from whatever price we reach, every price gain in BTC is quite massive in percent terms and subject to speculators who want to cash out for that day, week or whatever term. After it falls back, thats the true measure of strength. I would say most certainty will come from averaging above the 50 day average, then its a regularly positive set of price action and we can easily move into positive trends rather fighting the tide on every attempt.

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 09, 2022, 08:35:24 AM

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Can't help but feel all bets are off with the next macro event (Fed rate hike) in about 2 weeks though but if that situation does happen before then, should be firmer ground since it'd mean the buying is still able to nullify the bears pricing in for the rate hike. Either way, pleased to see determination from the bulls before Monday.

wxa7115

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Quote from: Minecache on July 07, 2022, 04:53:03 AM

The prediction of the bottom of bitcoin is useless, and in the worst case scenario bitcoin will probably fall to 10k during this bear season, but what is important is to not give up and not to sell, even if the price of our assets is dropping dramatically. As a general rule, bullish and bearish markets are immutable laws of the financial markets and the greater the decline in a market, the greater the increase in the market. Holding is the only key to success.

Without a doubt the most important skill right now we could have is our ability to hold our coins no matter what, people always get mad when the price of the assets in which they invested begins to go down, but this is natural as it is impossible for any asset to always keep going up in value.

However we must recognize that holding can be extremely difficult for those which bought close the new all time high as right now they are experimenting huge losses, and not only that I doubt they had any desire to hold their coins for so long and they were only interested in getting some quick profits, and as such the chances they will be able to hold until the next bull run are quite low.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 09, 2022, 06:50:13 AM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on July 08, 2022, 10:41:55 AM

Quote from: boltz on July 07, 2022, 10:55:17 AM

It Bitcoin breaks the 22.5k$ , then we have a pretty decent chance to move towards 30k again but personally I have big doubts that this sudden small rise in price could be another bear trap that won't break even the 22k range and it just go back under 20k$. Besides this , Bitcoin should break 21.7$ mark that happened in June 26th and yet again , the charts looking more like bearish than bullish...

Very true, for many waiting for a Weekly close above 200WMA will be the better long-term confirmation, whether this be at $23K or $25K becomes irrelevant. While price did get rejected by $22.5K in the short-term, the bullish momentum remains in tact and there are definitely buyers continuing to push prices higher right now. Temporary rejection between the 200WMA and 50 Month MA was to be expected.

Saw your RSI chart, definitely looks promising if Bitcoin does leave oversold area but it does need to close AND conclude consecutive weekly closes above that 200wma for confidence to pour back in. The volume, which is usually what helps me see the light, is actually the more encouraging point. However, there are enough warnings for a fakeout as well... Not least the exchange inflows preceding.

I also don't think it requires consecutive weekly closes above the 200WMA either, just one would do for confidence to return to the market, but leaving oversold conditions with a close is a must imo. If price drops this weekend, and the RSI returns to oversold (which would be easily done) and closes there, it would confirm that bears are selling as soon as longer-term price strength is leaving oversold conditions. It could easily be a confirmation of a fake-out, so I'd consider it a warning. Though naturally unless disastrous and price break support, then bulls can give it another go next week for price to leave oversold conditions.

Topic: Was $17.5K the low? - page 2. (Read 979 times)