I noticed that
recently on @bitcoin twitter most users thought that price would reach $15K prior to $25K in the next few months (out of 28.7K votes), with 60% believing price will close the month of June below $20K (40.9K votes). It seems that most Bitcoiners and those following the cryptocurrency are thinking the worse is yet to come. Do bitcointalk users feel the same, who have been in the space for a little longer?
My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.
Price is currently at the 0.236 retracement level "line in the sand" since the 2020 lows to the 2021 highs. This is where we saw consolidation in late 2020, so not unsurprising to see a bounce from this previous resistance zone. The positive here is the same as the negative imo. There is a big volume gap between $20K and $30K. Likewise, there is a big gap between $17.5K and $12K. Even zooming out further, there isn't much more volume until $12K.
[...]Based on volume alone, it won't be difficult for price to re-test $30K if $20K is reclaimed. Likewise, it wouldn't be difficult to reach $12K if $17.5K support is lost, despite how oversold price currently is. I personally don't understand much fixation with the $14K or $15K level, to me they appear to be of little trading interest. More relevantly, a so-called "typical" 83% correction would be $12K, not $14K or $15K.
I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.
