Was just watching the big short. Why do the times suddenly feel similar?

Silberman

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Quote from: beerlover on September 19, 2023, 06:09:05 AM

Quote from: so98nn on September 18, 2023, 08:36:39 AM

I hope you guys are on track now and doing better. The economic crash hits the normal peeps like me and you all the time. Our financial management starts breaking apart when we see prices soaring for daily mandatory things like food, electricity, gasoline, and a few others but not limited to them.

Some might say this is just a needle in a haystack but I say things start worsening at this point itself. Our interest rates are also revised during such high tension thus it becomes complicated whether to feed the family first or pay the EMI on time. If someone is from a developing country then they will know what are the consequences of living with missed EMIs, high price tags on regular vegetables, and much more.

So I feel you mate. It can only be recovered with great attention to savings that can make us survive during high times like these.

The issue is that someone who has 50 million dollars do not have to care about the regular life spending, they do not think about buying food, they can eat whatever they want, buy any sofa they want, whenever their car breaks down they do not have to worry about the service, they just live normally without worrying about money, and they can invest easier.

People like you and me and him, we care about those things, because one bad thing and we are done, and two in a row? That almost means bankruptcy unless we get some help, I lived that recently, my wife needed operation and then our car broke down, both of them together meant financial debt that I would have to pay for 2 years, but thankfully my boss helped me out, otherwise I would have been in debt for 2 years.

While it is true the rich have an easier time than us, it is not as if they cannot be destroyed by a black swan, after all a great deal of their wealth is on their companies or other paper assets, and in the case of an economic crisis a great deal of their wealth just disappears, and if they were heavily indebted then this can easily cause them to lose everything they had in a short amount of time, something that we saw happening a lot during the last major crisis we went through.

KiaKia

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I lived through a bear market before and I know how challenging it can get, but my experience isn't like someone who is new to crypto space anymore, now I am fully prepared for whatever happens, I believe that surviving in the bear market is where many people will fail and many have failed in the past too, it's better to be prepared for gbs hard times if you want to successfully see a new bull market.

Right now I am still waiting for the final flush out and it could be the most brutal so far, but still this doesn't stop me from using my DCA strategy now and then, because I am human not a god, there is no way I can read the future.

There is still few months left before the halving and even after the halving the bull market won't start instantly, think about how you will survive for that long, make plans on buying foods and save some money aside or else your crypto assets won't see the next bull market sitting their asses in your wallet.

beerlover

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Quote from: so98nn on September 18, 2023, 08:36:39 AM

I hope you guys are on track now and doing better. The economic crash hits the normal peeps like me and you all the time. Our financial management starts breaking apart when we see prices soaring for daily mandatory things like food, electricity, gasoline, and a few others but not limited to them.

Some might say this is just a needle in a haystack but I say things start worsening at this point itself. Our interest rates are also revised during such high tension thus it becomes complicated whether to feed the family first or pay the EMI on time. If someone is from a developing country then they will know what are the consequences of living with missed EMIs, high price tags on regular vegetables, and much more.

So I feel you mate. It can only be recovered with great attention to savings that can make us survive during high times like these.

The issue is that someone who has 50 million dollars do not have to care about the regular life spending, they do not think about buying food, they can eat whatever they want, buy any sofa they want, whenever their car breaks down they do not have to worry about the service, they just live normally without worrying about money, and they can invest easier.

People like you and me and him, we care about those things, because one bad thing and we are done, and two in a row? That almost means bankruptcy unless we get some help, I lived that recently, my wife needed operation and then our car broke down, both of them together meant financial debt that I would have to pay for 2 years, but thankfully my boss helped me out, otherwise I would have been in debt for 2 years.

so98nn

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Just watching that movie gave me such chills, my family and I lost our house we lost everything in 2008 when the housing market crashed. Honestly after living through it in the worst way you can see how I would be such an advocate for bitcoin. Many other folks didn't have to go though that, and so they don't quite understand. I couldn't hell but think how strangely similar the feeling back then how it almost feels like the same type of conditions for things to happen. I said it the other day whilst playing golf to my m8 that something big was brewing, I could just feel it. Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

I hope you guys are on track now and doing better. The economic crash hits the normal peeps like me and you all the time. Our financial management starts breaking apart when we see prices soaring for daily mandatory things like food, electricity, gasoline, and a few others but not limited to them.

Some might say this is just a needle in a haystack but I say things start worsening at this point itself. Our interest rates are also revised during such high tension thus it becomes complicated whether to feed the family first or pay the EMI on time. If someone is from a developing country then they will know what are the consequences of living with missed EMIs, high price tags on regular vegetables, and much more.

So I feel you mate. It can only be recovered with great attention to savings that can make us survive during high times like these.

Yamane_Keto

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

The good thing about the economy is that we benefit from the past. It is true that we repeat the same mistakes, but the development of the economy and the return from the disaster is rapid and faster than what happened in 2008. Therefore, even if a disaster occurs, know to ignore all your investments (no matter their losses) and to wait an average of four years and things will return to normal. Trying to reduce losses by short selling or selling assets, regardless of the losses, is a mistake, and in all cases it is better to diversify your investment portfolio as long as you believe that the economy is in trouble or that something bad will happen.

Jatiluhung

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I read a news story in March this year. And the content of the news is about a tweet from Robert Kiyosaki which says about the world economy being on the verge of collapse and he suggests people buy some kind of silver coin as a preparatory step. When I read the news, I immediately looked for more information. But to be honest, there is lots of other news that is almost similar. And I actually feel that the news media is starting to scare readers. So I decided not to read too much news at that time. And I would rather push myself to focus more on work and earn more money to make preparations for myself and my family.

Estimating the future sometimes only makes us panic. And it would be better to focus on work now and make more money. it's better to be prepared than just busy reading future predictions. Because an economic crisis could happen without us expecting it, like what happened when the Corona pandemic came suddenly. We don't know what will happen tomorrow. So don't worry about it. What we have to think about is the life we are living right now. While making more thorough preparations calmly.

Sourch: https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/robert-kiyosaki-ekonomi-dunia-di-ambang-kehancuran-beli-perak-sekarang?page=all

Latviand

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I'm not that updated on what's happening on the housing market on the US but iirc in the movie, the cause of the collapse was because companies are accepting mortgages no matter how bad the credit is of the person that wants to buy the house because the real estate sellers gets the cash quickly so they just accept everyone with background checks. So I don't know how it can be the same because last time, I think the land price in the US is just going higher which is kind of the opposite in the movie.

BitcoinTurk

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Quote

Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

History always repeats itself and although it isn't exactly the same. All these scenes that repeat each other cause similar scenes to occur. The economic crisis experienced all over the world in 2008 caused many individuals to fall under a serious debt burden, businesses to stop their activities and the economic balance to deteriorate. Considering the economic conditions we're in today I think we're in a much worse economic crisis and the consequences will be worse.

Although today's economic conditions seem to be better compared to the 2008 crisis. When many data are examined in detail it will not be difficult to determine that we're actually in a much worse scenario. Individuals who constantly live their lives in debt, companies that are experiencing serious financial difficulties and whose profit margins are decreasing, living costs that are increasing day by day and the property sector that has reached a bubble status again actually indicate that a very bad economic crisis period has begun. Basic reasons such as higher debt amounts and unresolved inflation compared to the 2008 crisis will cause us to go through a much worse crisis period.

Kakmakr

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I get a even worst feeling, when I see what are happening on the military side. We know that when we are on the brink of an economical collapse, countries tend to go to war, to deflect the attention away from what is happening in the economy. (When it eventually collapse, they blame the war)

We have North Korea visiting Putin in Russia and we have the war in the Ukraine that are being funded by other nations... and we have the BRICS countries moving away from the "West".

There are wheels that are set in motion for a WWIII to happen.... and I think we are passed the stage, where this can be stopped.

Porfirii

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In my opinion, what really happened to the OP can be explained by the theory of availability heuristics: the images about a financial crisis are so vivid after watching the movie that you think the probability of that happening is high.

So you can feel a hunch, by comparing both situations: the present one reminds me 2008. But this is the kind of intuition one should rethink. Remember "Exit all cryptomarkets!"? if you are right by chance you will be remembered as a genius, but it would be just luck, and most times you'll be wrong, so you'll make an ass of yourself, like the author of that claim.

adaseb

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Another thing that I just remembered from that movie is that they were all early to short the housing market. I remember there was a scene when they finally were into their short trade but the markets still kept going up. Every day they were going up. They were confused and upset. They called the markets being manipulated.

Then eventually it all came crashing down. It was easy to predict when it would happen. So even if the bubble will pop, it will be very difficult to predict the exact moment. Look at the Canadian housing bubble we got for like 2 decades pretty much.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: mindrust on September 13, 2023, 11:02:53 PM

people used to talk about the 87 crash a lot but nobody remembers it now so it is not famous anymore.

That was almost a flash crash, because the stock market recovered fairly quickly (though I can't remember what the economy in general was like afterward--but it was nowhere near as bad as what came after the events in The Big Short). I'd also say that the '87 crash might not be "famous" with younger folks because they probably weren't even born yet, but I'm sure a lot of business execs and Wall Street people won't ever forget it.

Anyway, you guys do realize that the bull market in stocks that started when things began to recover back in 2009 or so is still going on now, right? While I don't get the same vibe tread93 gets about the economy (or housing market), stocks just don't keep going up forever. That's almost as reliable as any law you'll find in a physics textbook, and that's saying something for such a soft 'science' as economics. So I'd say a crash is coming eventually, but I don't see anything that might precipitate it immediately.

Maybe Michael Burry knows what's up.

Mauser

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Just watching that movie gave me such chills, my family and I lost our house we lost everything in 2008 when the housing market crashed. Honestly after living through it in the worst way you can see how I would be such an advocate for bitcoin. Many other folks didn't have to go though that, and so they don't quite understand. I couldn't hell but think how strangely similar the feeling back then how it almost feels like the same type of conditions for things to happen. I said it the other day whilst playing golf to my m8 that something big was brewing, I could just feel it. Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

Sorry to hear that you lost everything in 2008, hopefully your family managed to recover in the rebound. I am a huge fan of Michael Lewis and read the book and watched the movie. Listening to traders and their views it surprises me that not more people were finding out the huge mess the financial system was in. Having multiple homes and mortgages that you can't really afford and only relying on rising house prices to get out of your misery seems so wrong on multiple levels. Having now people doing the same scheme nationwide is going to lead to disaster. The issue back then was that many people knew about the problems, but nobody knew exactly when the bubble was going to burst. It was more profitable to ride the wave for a year or two in 2005, then to starting to bet against. Just look at Michael Burry, he was too early with his trades and lost a lot of money before the crisis hit. It's not enough to be right, we also need to be right at the correct time. While the economy is not doing great at the moment, I don't think we are heading to such bad times like in 2008. We don't have so many bad financial assets like the CDO madness from those times that were spread around the world

xSkylarx

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I've heard multiple times about speculation about the crash ever since but it hasn't happened yet so we should be glad for it but for sure in the future it will happen. Our feelings and instincts are almost the same. Your feelings right now are that you are scared or have a phobia about what will happen to you when the crash happens and you don't want to experience what you've experienced before that is why you are feeling it. The best thing to do right now is accumulate enough Bitcoin to prepare. This is like those people investing tons of money for a bomb shelter even though it ain't happening soon but still they are ready in case and we should as well do in Bitcoin.

Porfirii

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Quote from: poodle63 on September 16, 2023, 06:32:33 PM

I don't think its similar, the big short was caused by shitty mortgages being betted around its completely different because these big institutions and banks have learned their mistakes and definitely have already
watched the cause of the big short in the past and analysis current economic condition based on that. considering the fact that I think the main reason economic was collapsing due to the subprime mortgage and borrowers having many loans at the same time.
I don't think this time around things like that will occur honestly, maybe im wrong but honestly current economic condition better than in the past.

But it seems that people haven't learnt from the crash when many still spend over their possibilities, ask for student loans that won't be able to pay (some of them) and mortgages to buy expensive houses instead of buying cheaper ones and save for a better future. We live in a world where we want it all and we want it now (like the song).

And banks didn't learn too much either, because for many of them the lesson was cheap, when not for free.

poodle63

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I don't think its similar, the big short was caused by shitty mortgages being betted around its completely different because these big institutions and banks have learned their mistakes and definitely have already
watched the cause of the big short in the past and analysis current economic condition based on that. considering the fact that I think the main reason economic was collapsing due to the subprime mortgage and borrowers having many loans at the same time.
I don't think this time around things like that will occur honestly, maybe im wrong but honestly current economic condition better than in the past.

usekevin

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Just watching that movie gave me such chills, my family and I lost our house we lost everything in 2008 when the housing market crashed. Honestly after living through it in the worst way you can see how I would be such an advocate for bitcoin. Many other folks didn't have to go though that, and so they don't quite understand. I couldn't hell but think how strangely similar the feeling back then how it almost feels like the same type of conditions for things to happen. I said it the other day whilst playing golf to my m8 that something big was brewing, I could just feel it. Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

The market crash of 2008 had affected many countries because of the economical crash of United States.This was the one of the story,many people had loss the house during the 2008 and after a decade they start to recover from the economy.But unfortunately the Covid had come in 2020 and again affected the people who had was in huge economic depression.After the Covid effect now some people trying to get away the poor position in the society.We hope the upcoming bitcoin halves in 2024 will help those people.

Silberman

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Just watching that movie gave me such chills, my family and I lost our house we lost everything in 2008 when the housing market crashed. Honestly after living through it in the worst way you can see how I would be such an advocate for bitcoin. Many other folks didn't have to go though that, and so they don't quite understand. I couldn't hell but think how strangely similar the feeling back then how it almost feels like the same type of conditions for things to happen. I said it the other day whilst playing golf to my m8 that something big was brewing, I could just feel it. Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

Just as this market moves in cycles, the same is true for the stock market as well, however people have a very short memory so even if many suffered during the 2008 crisis as soon as things got back to normal they forgot about everything that happened back then, however even those that suffered greatly act as if it could not happen again and get surprised when it does and then they lose everything again, so without a doubt a crisis is coming, we do not know when and how big it will be but we need to be prepared, and holding some bitcoin is a nice way to try to resist it.

Huppercase

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Quote from: tread93 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:49 PM

Just watching that movie gave me such chills, my family and I lost our house we lost everything in 2008 when the housing market crashed. Honestly after living through it in the worst way you can see how I would be such an advocate for bitcoin. Many other folks didn't have to go though that, and so they don't quite understand. I couldn't hell but think how strangely similar the feeling back then how it almost feels like the same type of conditions for things to happen. I said it the other day whilst playing golf to my m8 that something big was brewing, I could just feel it. Could we be on the verge of some crazy market crashes like in 2008?

I think you are just one the few that fall in the wrong side of financial investment, there are more people that have seen more than what you have experience in the past and there are more to happen, it might not be now but in the future, anything can happen because even the life you breath isn't guarantee for the next day, so trade everything you are doing carefully. If you ask people that fell for Luna collapse, they will tell you that they have seen the worse, there were multiple reports of some investors that even took their life after the collapse of their investments but here you are still strong and elegant.

I was watching some YouTube videos when Covid19 had so intense effect on the market and everyone were all predicting how everything in that point in time will wlbe worse than what we have seen in 2008 but all of them failed and you know why that happened? When covid19 crash the market, nobody see it coming and when the market was bouncing back, no market focaster was able to tell fully because they were all afraid. I believe your assertions are not different from those ones. If the market is going to crash, not even you will be able to tell.

jaberwock

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Quote from: sesterceshop on September 14, 2023, 01:09:55 AM

I completely resonate with your sentiments. Having experienced the 2008 crash firsthand, it's hard not to draw parallels with the current state of affairs. It's a reminder of why I believe in Bitcoin. Some might not fully grasp it, but our past experiences give us a unique perspective. I mentioned to a friend recently that something significant seems to be brewing. Let's stay vigilant, and as always, keep an eye on our financials. Accumulating Bitcoin might just be the safeguard we need.

Ah so you guys are like having a trauma. Maybe you need to seek for a professional first before venturing another investment (even bitcoin). In fact, Bitcoin is much brutal because it was highly volatile and then we don't know what can come ahead, but I think if one will just be calm and continue HODL'ing his assets, he can always survive a crash.

If we are ready and we already have a Bitcoin, don't worry about the others if they didn't grasp it yet. We should only focus on our own because our own ability can dictate if we are going to be successful here or not (not the others). Accumulating Bitcoin can safeguard our money, as long as you won't do the wrong things.

Topic: Was just watching the big short. Why do the times suddenly feel similar? (Read 494 times)