Topic: Watching amateur finance types flail (Read 35334 times)
PLEASE let this thread die people!
I cant believe you helped this TROLL this much.
I cant believe you helped this TROLL this much.
As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doom monger, it proves nothing.
Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive. I have a verifiable track record. Do you?One example:
2003-06-26 - The bottom is still a long way down
This was clearly a start of cyclical bull market (in a secular bear market), it was completely off.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive. I have a verifiable track record. Do you?
Quote
4.14.2000 - Today begins the Second Great Depression
All bubbles burst. This one just did. The great Internet bubble is over.
First we had Internet companies with no profits. Then we had Internet companies with no revenue. Towards the end, we saw attempts to take public Internet companies with no operations. It had to end, and it just did.
This is healthy. It's not the end of the Internet, just the end of the stupidity. Now we have to get through a return to reality. "Reality", in this context, is a return to historical P/E ratios, in the 6 to 20 range. What about the companies with no earnings? Uh oh. Losing money on every sale and making it up on volume is a joke, not a business plan.
All bubbles burst. This one just did. The great Internet bubble is over.
First we had Internet companies with no profits. Then we had Internet companies with no revenue. Towards the end, we saw attempts to take public Internet companies with no operations. It had to end, and it just did.
This is healthy. It's not the end of the Internet, just the end of the stupidity. Now we have to get through a return to reality. "Reality", in this context, is a return to historical P/E ratios, in the 6 to 20 range. What about the companies with no earnings? Uh oh. Losing money on every sale and making it up on volume is a joke, not a business plan.
Funny, the Second Great Depression didn't begin on 4.14.2000. Missed that one.
Also, stupidity ended on 4.14.2000? Ever hear of the Option ARM. They were popular til about 2007 - and in most cases were stupid. Heck, ever hear of the housing bubble in general? Plenty of stupidity on display there too.
Returning to historical PE ratios? Apple Inc, quite possibly the most successful company since 4.14.2000 didn't have a P/E ratio below 20 until September 2008 (due to the GFC). Microsoft, who has done only Ok since 4.14.2000 didn't cross below a 20 PE until Jun 2006. IBM (one of the heaviest weighted companies on the DJIA) didn't have a PE <20 until Jun 2005. And it was only in June of 2010 that Google briefly touched below a 20 PE. So why was 4.14.2000 the magical date to return to PE Ratios in the 6-20 range? One would have missed some of the most profitable, fastest growing companies of the decade if they took to heart your view of what "Reality" should look like.
Thankfully, everything you've written on Downside is still in the Internet Archive. It enables people to verify your track record.
And then ignore you.
Is this thread long enough yet to include an anology to Nazis and/or Hitler? 
But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.
But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.
Close but not yet. Maybe I'll sell my radioactive asbestos for BTC.
Aren't those investing in silver and gold (moreso gold) counting on it's future utility value (currency)? Or is that bullshit too? I suppose you'll say next that BTC is not a store of value like silver and gold is? True but only because a proper amount of time has passed. Silver and gold are largely recognized as they are due to the fact that they were the best alternative.
Silver and gold are quite similar to Bitcoins in that sense (the only thing keeping the price high is because of demand, the speculative and/or "store of value" price is far higher than it's utility price, and as others have said in terms of a convenient 21st century currency Bitcoin is far, far more suitable than gold is), however the key thing that pro-BTC people miss when they compare Bitcoins to precious metals is that we've been conditioned for generations to covet precious metals. As I said in another thread (or perhaps earlier in this thread), despite it having absolutely no utilitarian purpose, rich dictators routinely gold plate firearms, because the gold is a symbol of wealth.
Bitcoins do not share these traits - there is no years of conditioning fostering the belief that everyone will want them in the future so you should want them now - the project itself is what, two years old? For that reason, the flimsy promise of "it has nowhere to go but up!" is not really enough to keep people interested. I can see the idea that a store of wealth that can be securely, pseudo-anonymously, and quickly moved around the world is useful, but many outsiders simply see it as a game of hot potato that'll eventually leave someone holding the bag. Why should they volunteer to be a part of the chain, taking the risk they might be the end of it?
A growing economy will start to sway people's minds that maybe the chain doesn't have to end, and do wonders to sure up it's value.
Quote
Real work does need to be done and time needs to pass. The fact that it's a speculative vehicle doesn't invalidate it. Au contraire, it demonstrates that there's a demand for it. Patience is the key, grasshopper. Trying to rush this into the mainstream is also delusional.
I agree with you in that respect, and I realize it'll take time - I would just like to see more people outside of this forum focusing on building the economy rather than roping in more investors. While it being a speculative vehicle has helped to an extent (giving it a dollar-value people can relate to), it's also hobbled adoption by varying the "value" wildly and been a PR-nightmare because there are many who view it as nothing more than a geek ponzi scheme.
It's my humble opinion the better thing to do to shut those people up is to show them we can build a sustainable economy, rather than telling them "see I told you it would break silver parity".
As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doom monger, it proves nothing.
Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive. I have a verifiable track record. Do you?
Is this thread long enough yet to include an anology to Nazis and/or Hitler?
But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.
But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.
This Nagel is a grade A prick. He comes here and within the first few posts he is countered with several arguments. He addresses barely any of them but spews his own drivel.
As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doommonger, it proves nothing.
I've seen far more credible anti-BitCoin arguments elsewhere on this board. This guy just shows his lack of understanding. And I say that as someone who is impartial on it, not a miner and actually considered here my most to be anti-bitcoin and/or troll.
As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doommonger, it proves nothing.
I've seen far more credible anti-BitCoin arguments elsewhere on this board. This guy just shows his lack of understanding. And I say that as someone who is impartial on it, not a miner and actually considered here my most to be anti-bitcoin and/or troll.
sorry but bitcoins have a use. Because of bitcoins I have a capability I did not have before. I can easily send money to someone in a random location on earth with NO logistics troubles other than getting their address. If you don't think that this marks a major turning point you are simply small minded.
Bitcoin is still an infant, there are big things to come.
Bitcoin is still an infant, there are big things to come.
Amen brother!
This is a market and like any other market it goes in cycles. There will be booms and busts based on people's speculations on where the market is going to go. Some will be right, some will be wrong, some will profit, some will lose. Yes, it is a zero sum game and the first step to being successful is to realize that.
Buy low, sell high, and don't get emotional. Very few people can take that to a market. Those can can are called "successful traders."
Quote
Aren't those investing in silver and gold (moreso gold) counting on it's future utility value (currency)? Or is that bullshit too? I suppose you'll say next that BTC is not a store of value like silver and gold is? True but only because a proper amount of time has passed. Silver and gold are largely recognized as they are due to the fact that they were the best alternative.
You have an apt comparison. These commodities are not at their present value because of their uses in electronics or astronaut visors. The demand for these industrial uses is not high enough to represent the price. The excess demand comes from people hedging their capital due to lack of faith in the dollar, equities, and other investments. These commodities cannot be traded virtually thus are inferior to Bitcoins. They are only superior in that they have been around for... a couple of years more than Bitcoin
This is a bit silly to anyone who's ever lived in a country outside of the G8... there are entire areas of the world where the local currency, while strictly used for local, small scale transactions, is not the de facto currency. In much of the world, when people assign value to anything of substance (a house, a car, the monthly rent), they do so in USD, because their local currency is ineffective.
In that sense, the only thing preventing BTC from being "as good" is a lack of exposure.
In that sense, the only thing preventing BTC from being "as good" is a lack of exposure.
Touché... but I never said (I don't think?) that BTC can never be as good, or anything like that - I simply said it isn't now. Which is the crux of my argument - that real work needs to be done before BTC will become anything other than a geek toy and a speculative vehicle, and the majority of the community don't appear to want to do it. It's massively inconvenient to buy things with Bitcoin at the moment (beyond small person to person trades, particularly for digital goods, at which it's terribly convenient) and the only other argument for Bitcoin's utility is that it's a "good store of wealth" which is bullshit because the only reason it's keeping it's value hinges on it's possible future utility.
I guess the root of my point is that if you've invested in Bitcoins and you aren't actively working to make the Bitcoin economy better, you're actively sabotaging your own investment (or delusional, there seems to be a fuckton of that going around these forums).
Aren't those investing in silver and gold (moreso gold) counting on it's future utility value (currency)? Or is that bullshit too? I suppose you'll say next that BTC is not a store of value like silver and gold is? True but only because a proper amount of time has passed. Silver and gold are largely recognized as they are due to the fact that they were the best alternative.
We are in a digital age now. BTC may develop to have it's value in a niche for certain types of transactions. Currency for others. Silver and gold yet for others.
I have no problem right now selling my metals if I need cash bad enough. I have to convert that into currency. Did I error in my ways when I bought silver at $9.00 and sold it for currency and then bought stuff with it? Trust me, I wasn't complaining.
Real work does need to be done and time needs to pass. The fact that it's a speculative vehicle doesn't invalidate it. Au contraire, it demonstrates that there's a demand for it. Patience is the key, grasshopper. Trying to rush this into the mainstream is also delusional.
You make it sound like we are all just sitting on our asses, waiting for the value to go up. Have a look in the project dvelopement board, lots of people are working on ways to raise the value of the community, infrastructure, etc. There is value in the future of bitcoins because alot of smart people are *working* on adding value.
My apologies, I didn't mean to imply that no one is doing the heavy-lifting - simply that if you step outside those boards and go look at what Bitcoin evangelists are saying elsewhere on the web, the majority of it boils down to: "invest in Bitcoins, nowhere to but up" and "we need to figure out a way to attract more investors", intermixed with the occasional "you should be mining Bitcoins too, it's the new gold rush".
I wholeheartedly agree that Bitcoin has value because of it's potentially bright future. I have, however, witnessed at least two people on this very forum say things like "who cares if the Bitcoin economy never takes off, it's still a great store of value" which is idiotic because that value hinges on the assumption of the bright economic future.
This is a bit silly to anyone who's ever lived in a country outside of the G8... there are entire areas of the world where the local currency, while strictly used for local, small scale transactions, is not the de facto currency. In much of the world, when people assign value to anything of substance (a house, a car, the monthly rent), they do so in USD, because their local currency is ineffective.
In that sense, the only thing preventing BTC from being "as good" is a lack of exposure.
In that sense, the only thing preventing BTC from being "as good" is a lack of exposure.
Touché... but I never said (I don't think?) that BTC can never be as good, or anything like that - I simply said it isn't now. Which is the crux of my argument - that real work needs to be done before BTC will become anything other than a geek toy and a speculative vehicle, and the majority of the community don't appear to want to do it. It's massively inconvenient to buy things with Bitcoin at the moment (beyond small person to person trades, particularly for digital goods, at which it's terribly convenient) and the only other argument for Bitcoin's utility is that it's a "good store of wealth" which is bullshit because the only reason it's keeping it's value hinges on it's possible future utility.
I guess the root of my point is that if you've invested in Bitcoins and you aren't actively working to make the Bitcoin economy better, you're actively sabotaging your own investment (or delusional, there seems to be a fuckton of that going around these forums).
Uhm... it is just as good now. I've bought the exact same things I would normally buy with dollars. I've exchanged them for dollars. Right now they have the identical utility as far as I can tell. I can't use them as collateral for a loan but so what? You don't get rich being in debt.
When you've lived 12 months as an adult* without touching your local currency, post a thread reporting on it. Until then, they're not "as good" unless you take an extremely narrow definition of "as good". Anecdotal stories of "I bought Widget X with it" aren't helpful. If you are being paid in USD then every year the buying power of one year's income drops a little bit, so hopefully you got raises to counteract that. If you are being paid in BTC, your buying power fluctuates wildly.
* Are you able to pay your rent in BTC? Living with your parents and surviving off beef jerky and whatever your friends will sell you for BTC doesn't count. A functional adult must be able to conduct 99% of their day to day business in Bitcoin before it'll be "as good" as $LOCALCURRENCY.
This is a bit silly to anyone who's ever lived in a country outside of the G8... there are entire areas of the world where the local currency, while strictly used for local, small scale transactions, is not the de facto currency. In much of the world, when people assign value to anything of substance (a house, a car, the monthly rent), they do so in USD, because their local currency is ineffective.
In that sense, the only thing preventing BTC from being "as good" is a lack of exposure.
Uhm... it is just as good now. I've bought the exact same things I would normally buy with dollars. I've exchanged them for dollars. Right now they have the identical utility as far as I can tell. I can't use them as collateral for a loan but so what? You don't get rich being in debt.
When you've lived 12 months as an adult* without touching your local currency, post a thread reporting on it. Until then, they're not "as good" unless you take an extremely narrow definition of "as good". Anecdotal stories of "I bought Widget X with it" aren't helpful. If you are being paid in USD then every year the buying power of one year's income drops a little bit, so hopefully you got raises to counteract that. If you are being paid in BTC, your buying power fluctuates wildly.
* Are you able to pay your rent in BTC? Living with your parents and surviving off beef jerky and whatever your friends will sell you for BTC doesn't count. A functional adult must be able to conduct 99% of their day to day business in Bitcoin before it'll be "as good" as $LOCALCURRENCY.
Edit: Note that I don't think it's required that Bitcoin be "as good" as any other given currency for it's survival, it just needs to be better than it is now - we need a functioning economy that is a major player so that speculation doesn't give it 99% of it's value. I'm only arguing this point because the claim that Bitcoin is "as good as" the USD is complete bullshit if you are an adult living independently in the USA.
Hey guys, send me your BTC's and I'll buy whatever you want from Walmart.
WOOHOO! Wal-Mart accepting BitCoins now!!! Sam would definitely be a BitCoin fan!!!
You can buy anything on Amazon.com with bitcoins.
This is highly misleading. Amazon.com does not accept bitcoins, an UNAFFILIATED entity conducts the transactions.
Hey guys, send me your BTC's and I'll buy whatever you want from Walmart. Does Walmart accept Bitcoins now?
Uhm... it is just as good now. I've bought the exact same things I would normally buy with dollars. I've exchanged them for dollars. Right now they have the identical utility as far as I can tell. I can't use them as collateral for a loan but so what? You don't get rich being in debt.
Okay well whether it's by law or merely convention, and right or wrong, the USD currently has value in the USA. Pretending that Bitcoin is just as good now is folly - as I've said in multiple threads, the value of BTC right now is in what could be, not what is.
We agree for the most part. My point was there is more intrinsic value in bitcoins (even though they are digital) than there are in paper USD. That's more of an indictment of US currency than anything else. However, USD does not have to be accepted at all by anyone. FRN's are not the only legal tender. The gov't just like you to believe it is.
Jump to: