I am ONLY half way through this thread, but I felt I should chime in.
As an early adopter I don't think halvings and FUD are connected in any way. The "black swan" event normally happens months or even years before halving. Normally, the price right before or after halving has gone up significantly already. I think we have witnessed the lowest point this cycle already.
If we are often at The "black swan" event, surely we don't panic, but that effect does not apply for the weak hand which makes "the often people" sooner or later it will follow that fear, the talkative like this often happens following fud. this ever happened with me last year ago when ftx exchange collapsed which make Bitcoin price dump. Even I know this is the black swan, but I can't not hear screaming fud on everywhere which make me sold also my treasury. I am affected, even I know it will happen.
You need to toughen up!!!!!!
I think we have witnessed the lowest point this cycle already.
I also think so.
As far as drama is concerned, I think there will be little. The only thing is that until after halving and even when we are in the bull market there will be ups and downs, small dramas I would say. But the real drama would be for example that next cycle we do not have a bull market, that the price does not exceed the $69K of this cycle. Things like that, which are very unlikely to happen, but if they did happen they would be a real drama.
Yes..
Each of us who holds bitcoin need to be prepared for a variety of scenarios, and if we are not prepared for a variety of scenarios besides "my stash is going to at least double and perhaps 5x or more), then we are gambling rather than investing.
But hey do whatever, you like. I prefer to prepare for either direction, and sure I am better off if the BTC price goes up, but I am also psychologically and financially prepared for more bearish scenarios, including downity scenarios.. or maybe whimpy sideways scenarios like you suggest could happen but you consider them to be low likely events.. which I would also think that sideways happens to be low likely because we are in a bit of a war.. that likely involves the largest peaceful transfer of wealth in history, so who of us should be expecting anything like that to happen without a bit of violence and perhaps some broken eggs along the way?
Without black swans like FTX or Luna, how can we buy bitcoin for $15k, and without drama between Binance and SEC, how can we buy bitcoin for $26k?
So, is this a good thing? I don't agree with you, the drama shouldn't happen, if this keeps happening, they will continue to create drama in the future to try dump Bitcoin again. If they are late to buy, they have to be fair to buy Bitcoin at a high price, don't dump it to make panic the weak hand.
In free markets there is no reason to expect anyone to be fair or not to pull as many tricks in order to shake you from your bitcoins.
I just hope it would be fine. Fine enought to have less stress
You have to go to therapy to learn how to control it
Those who allowed the crypto drama consume them would eventually blame themselves for allowing the FUD news to manipulate their emotions.
The whales create FUD to control weak hand emotions, The whales know how to control their emotion. Because of that, the beginner before turning to the trading world must have knowledge of how to control emotions. This is an important thing before, So if they know that, they don't need again trading knowledge, candle, chart or technical trading.
Sure whales likely have more experience than smaller players, but even whales make mistakes, and we saw quite a few examples of that in 2022. In the future we are likely to have some countries getting rug pulled because they failed/refused to exercise enough due diligence.
