Topic: We All Know, The halving time will be full of drama - page 9. (Read 1568 times)

3 halvings, so N=2 (number of pattern repetitions). It is far from enough to proceed with such certainty and ignorance of all other factors. In a cointoss game the probability of calling 3x heads in a row (or tails three times) is 1:4 and yet to the inattentive observer the conclusions may be: 'so far it has always come up heads, so I assume that tails can never occur and I'll bet on that all my money ignoring the fact that another side of a coin exist".
it should also be noted that correlation does not imply causality and it is impossible to judge causality on such a young and volatile financial instrument with such a small sample.

Returning to the halvings, each subsequent halving is different and from a fundamental point of view it is advisable to expect an increasingly weaker impact on the valuation because:


Also the characteristics of the average investor in 2012 are completely different than in 2023.

The best course of action at the moment is to exercise patience because, as a result of recent news reports about hacks at other exchanges and the SEC, many newcomers to the market are terrified and are selling off their Bitcoin out of panic and FUD. I don't blame them for doing this because they are aware of how long this bear market has lasted.

As a Bitcoiner, I have never personally experienced Bitcoin halving; instead, I only hear that the Bitcoin price do go above its all-time high. Since I've learned a lot from this forum and am actively looking for ways to acquire more Bitcoin before the price starts to rise, nothing can make me consider selling my current Bitcoin holdings.

So far we have had three halvings, and the fourth is fast approaching, and funny enough, we always do have some sort of crisis, or will I say some price dump, on or before the Bitcoin halving, which usually drops the price of Bitcoin drastically to its lowest level compared to its ATH.
 
1. As we know, the first halving happened in 2012, and during this time, the price dump happened just a year before the halving, which was In 2011, when the price fell from $30 to $2. And this was as a result of the Mt. Gox exchange hack incident, in which a total of about 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen.
 
2. The second one was 2016, and the price dump was in 2014. After the price pumped in December 2013 and reached a new all-time high of $1200, the next month, January 2014, the price fell below $550, and this was as a result of the Announcement made by China, who have always been against crypto, which states "Bitcoin was not a currency and could not be used as a form of payment."
 
3. The most recent halving occurred in 2020, which was the one I experienced, but before the halving, the price had already reduced from its all-time high, which it achieved in December 2017, which was about $20k+, but within a period of a year, there was a global regulatory attack on ICOs (Initial coin offerings), just as the SEC is attacking Security tokens. Back then, the regulators requested exchanges comply with what they called "Anti-money laundering (AML). This, I believe, was when AML and KYC became mandatory for most of the centralized exchanges out there. The pressure that came with this resulted in the price crash from $20k+ to its lowest of $3,500 in December 2018.

Yes, like the title above, we all know the halving time is will always full of drama, this always happens at that time, but I don't know why many people forget and still spread FUD everywhere. If they understand that and know it always happens on every 4 years, they shall be calm and relaxed to face SEC, Binance, or anything drama.

I hope this lesson gives you an important point. They create this to dump Bitcoin, they do this to scare you, they do this to buy Bitcoin at a cheap price, and After buying with a lot of money, you already know that today Bitcoin price is pumped like crazy, right?

So, I just want to say; Don't forget, The drama could happen again and repeat until the halving time. you must be strong and patient. you will definitely win if you face it with a quiet and strong hand if happen again in the near future.

Cheers