Topic: We are still early in this bull run. Retails have yet come back massively! - page 2. (Read 537 times)

It looks like it, and you only have to look at the price trend to see where we are going.

Graph for past month:




Graph for past 6 months:





The graphs look very, very good. I think it won't be long before we cross the coveted $70,000 mark, and from there, to the moon.

Bitcoin has touched that milestone and is ready to create a new record by crossing $70k before the halving event. That isn't guaranteed but that is what we can expect after what has been happening lately, first Bitcoin went from $28k to $38k, then from there it went to $45k, and now it has crossed the previous all-time high even before the halving event. We are having a great year so far, let's hope it isn't ruined later on.

Before this happened, I and a lot of other speculators and general users were expecting that Bitcoin would hit $100k this bull run, but after what happened and how Bitcoin crossed its previous all-time high way before time, it feels like it is going to go way above that point now.

A few days back the coinbase app went to number 44 which appeared to be accelerating at a fast pace which would indicate the retail entering the market.

However it topped at 44 and has dropped to >100 right now. Seems like it was just a small bump and it’s trending down again. Which implies that most of the retail is not here yet but should be soon, especially if on Monday we cross into $70K again.

Of course we are still early, crossing ATH is typically just the starting point of a bull run, and the halvening still hasn't happened. The real big questions is how long will the bull run last and how high will it get. Will it repeat the pattern of the previous bull runs, or would this play out much faster now that we touched the ATH sooner than expected.

We are just entering the bull run; to be honest, we are not even 1/4 of the bull run, but we are already inside the entrance of this bull run. And if there are other altcoins that are pumping in their coins, I think this is the reason for the upcoming ETH spot.

So when the ETH spot is approved, it is certain that many altcoins will hit the market at the same time as bitcoin rallies. And if it is not approved, many altcoins will also dump their prices in the market for sure, and only a few will be able to keep up with Bitcoin's rally for sure too.

But these altcoins that just pumped hundreds of percent might now drop by 50% lol.

The point is altcoins are inhernetly extremely risky and extremely bad investments. And anyone can make a new altcoin so there is no way to know WHICH altcoins are going to pump. A few months from now there could be an entire new set of popular altcoins and the current ones could go down a lot from here on out.

To make the point more obvious. A lot of altcoins still haven't reached the local tops they hit a year ago on the market enthusiasm of bitcoin breaking out of the bear market the first few months of last year. So Bitcoin has 3x'd while many altcoins have gone down since then.


The investment strategy of buying altcoins is literally: "do you feel lucky today".

The chance of altcoins being dump is never "very low", as you say. The chance of altcoins dumping is always very high, even in bull markets. Because unlike Bitcoin, theres tons of altcoins to choose from. At any point some will dump and some will pump. Some will never go higher than they are today. No way to know which ones will be which. A few altcoins happened to just pump very hard, for some of them that very well might be as high as they go this market cycle, or ever. While others may 10x by end of the year. No way to know which will be which. Literally all it takes to replace any of them is for someone to make a funny sounding meme coin name and have it go viral and suddenly that's the new thing and all the altcoins that just pumped hard are yesterday's news.

I don't see how it feels like a top haha. Feels like the start to me.

Yeah the most useless coins have been pumping, because the little bit of retail that jumped back in went straight to the useless stuff haha. The stuff they think will make them rich quick. Meanwhile Bitcoin is just chilling around the ATH high no problem, Ethereum isn't even close to ATH yet, and most of the major altcoins are still tiny fractions of their ATHs.

A handful of meme coins and useless forks (literally where the absolutely dumbest money goes) says nothing about a top being here. It suggests a tiny fraction of retail probably jumped back in to the dumbest stuff.

Bull market is just starting. We aren't even at the halving yet!!

Also. I'm not sure what you think people making ludicrous claims about the bull market has to do with the timeline of the bull market. Anyone talking about crazy prices way up in the six digits happening this cycle are just clueless people. Says absolutely nothing about where we are in the bull run. Price is at the old ATH, bull run is just starting. That's how this works. Feels like we are at the start of the bull run with about a year to go until a peak. Retail market will probably take months to really start coming back in. TradFi is going to be putting tens of billions of dollars more into Bitcoin this bull run. Corporations haven't even started getting back into it this bull run yet. This thing is just starting. Dumb people buying the most usless cryptos and a few people talking about a million dollars doesn't mean anything.

But one thing you left out, you yourself said that bitcoin triggered the bull run and many altcoins are still at -90%, which means the chances of them being dumped or falling more is very low. So, buying altcoins now will not be as risky as when we are in the 2022 bear season. Also, look at what's been going on in the past few days, shiba is up 3x since the bottom, pepe is up 7x since the bottom...and many other altcoins.

We need to admit that during the bull season, altcoins will perform much better than bitcoin in terms of returns. But when the bear market begins, it's time to stay away from altcoins.

Newbies in this market will learn their lessons by falling in love with altcoins soon.

Even altcoins pumped hard recent months, because Bitcoin triggered the market bull run, many of them are still -80 %, -90% of their all time highs. I believe this screenshot can help newbies to see risk of altcoins if they find this post.

Read and study, The Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness of Crowds by Charles McKay and The Devil Takes The Hindmost by Edward Chancellor.

 


That's understandable. I have the same "feelings" too, but it shouldn't truly matter if you're a mere HODLer without any profit targets during the current bull cycle.

Plus those altcoins are pumping? Because Bitcoin is pumping. If Bitcoin crashes, I'm very confident that they will also crash and the crash will be heavier up to -90%.

Sure the bull run hasn't begun as all what we are seeing is pre-halving signals of which anyone that has a foresight would know that what is gonna occur after the bull market would be explosive, and buying and hodling at this point that some people are making exaggeration that we are already at the halving would still be a nice decision.

One thing that affects most investors is FOMO because they feel that it's too late already to accumulate more Bitcoins due to the fact that the recent price is almost near the previous ATH but regardless, for a long term holdler, it is never too late to buy at any price in time.

One thing is clear: we can beat the ATH of 69,000 soon, perhaps today. If it happens it would be the first time it has been beaten at this point in the cycle, before halving, which would bode very well for the rest of 2024. Perhaps the price performance next cycle can make up for how disappointing this one was? It won't take long to see.

I am feeling like we are at that stage right now. If we look at the chart then I would say that we are at a stage where the chart shows as "belief", because we are already quite high, we are like 4x higher from the bottom of cycle, so we can't call it just the start, we are already quite high. I am guessing that the maximum it can ever do is another 4x increase, nothing more, and that means we are at belief stage already.

We need to make sure that we know where we are so that we know when to get out, I can guarantee you that, not that I will wait that long, I may get out early, but if I ever see 200k price, I am out. Not because I think it can't get any higher, but after that it's all just a countdown, I can get out earlier than that too but I am not staying after 200k for sure.

Distribution phase will start when the retail crowd begin to FOMO and FOMO for a while.

Psychology of market cycles.

Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria are all phases we need to go through before the distribution phase of whales will be kicked off.

They will join as fresh newbies or rejoin after leaving 2 or 3 years. For newbies they will be tested by the market during the bull run with corrections and in a next bear market. As natural reactions of human, very few newbies will stay in this market after tested by tough months.

Retail might not be in but wherever I go I am not getting calls for $100K, i am getting calls for $200K or $1M or something crazy and we didn’t even make the ATH yet.

Seems people are aping into crypto like crazy at the moment. Look at all the useless meme tokens are pumping. We got wif, shib, Pepe and of course Doge. Also some old coins like bitcoin cash, bitcoin sv, and Litecoin are pumping.

Not saying we are near the top but it sure feels like one.

I think we are past the initial bullish phase in 2023, so I think we are already in the continuation phase even though we have not yet reached the new ATH. Price recently almost touched the old ATH, but then failed and corrected slightly. The upcoming halving is likely to sway anyone's interest in buying bitcoin and taking advantage of the opportunity, but experienced investors seem to have got entry in early so it's likely only retail traders will force themselves to capitalize on the hype.

Over time demand for bitcoin will increase and I don't think this is only influenced by the halving. Institutional investors have opened many people's eyes to their own doubts about bitcoin, so I think the hype this time will probably be bigger than the previous halving period.

Wait until the halving and we'd for sure going to have that sequence about these trends where all of the people at all ages will start searching on google about "how to buy bitcoin", "is bitcoin a good investment". You'd see that but we already have some signs already and that's the Coinbase having a glitch on the very first few days of the skyrocket.

It's true that we're still early and there's a need to wait until the bull run comes. Stack for yourselves and we all have been doing that for so long but for the people outside the forum, I just hope that most of them have their own plans and time to buy soon.

The peak of this cycle will be the most interesting thing on this history for this cycle.

We are really far from the peak of the market, although no one knows what the peak price will be before the bear market starts again but as it stands now, no one has yet missed any party. We are still preparing for the huge party to come because this initial stage is just like a price warm-up to make investors aware that it's going to be a crazy bull run. 

Bitcoin price trajectory have left us with so much uncertainties with the only thing certain being that we will see higher prices after the halving and going forward. So I agree with you that we are still early in this bull run. I don't know if what happened with the Bitcoin ETF will also happen with he halving, a case where everyone expected that Bitcoin was going to the moon immediately the ETF was approved. What we saw was just a minor push up before a deep retracement. Now we are also expecting serious price rise after the halving, will it happen like the ETF or not?

If I may understand correctly is only those that doesn't enter the market at a very low price that is why you see such noise and panic all over about people saying they have missed the bull trend, if I may get it well we have never achieved the previous ATH even though we are nearly to the price but we can't say the bull run has started and ended. What matters is we are looking at halving for the main bull market to start and of course when halving is over we might see some hard time over the market because after halving bull run doesn't start immediately so probably by 2025 that is when we might fully enjoys the bull run, but who knows if the narratives has change from its previous states to another new dimension who knows but historically I have never seen such.