Topic: Weekly RSI leaving oversold conditions (Read 1188 times)

Now that price has moved out of the trading range, it's time for an update. Firstly, a lot's changed since last time price was above $20.5K last month.

On the 4hr chart, the 50 & 200 MA have confirmed a golden cross, last seen in July, prior to the 20% increase in price towards $25K. Additionally, MAs are rising in bullish formation as price remains above it. While breaking through $21.5K previous trading range remains to be seen, price remains bullish in the short-term above $19.5K MA and volume support. Ideally bulls can form support between $20K and $20.5K, where the previous high lies and the upper end of the two month long accumulation zone, otherwise failure to do so and a return to $19K would only further confirm that the long-term bearish momentum remains.



On the Daily chart, price has managed to close consecutive candles above the flattened (neutral) 50 MA, again for the first time since July. This price level as potential support is similar to the short-term chart, as the 20 & 50 MAs are about to cross bullish. RSI price strength is otherwise at the highest level since March and remains bullish above 60. So while the trend reversal is far from confirmed on this time-frame without confirming support or moving beyond longer term accumulation levels (>$22K), to say that this time is different compared to recent dead cat bounces would be correct based on price strength and MAs.



The only potentially bearish outlook remains on the Weekly chart, as price begins to find resistance at the 20 Week MA @ $20,750 (again not seen since March), whereby price will need to close consecutive candles back above this level or risk facing rejection and finally capitulating lower. Due to the numerous weeks of consolidation, the projection for this MA is to flatten out and lose it's bearish bias in the next few weeks, providing a stronger possibility of being able to turn this into support instead of facing a sharp rejection like back in March after it had already begun trending to the downside in bearish formation.



After four months of consolidation near the lows, the Weekly RSI has finally managed to break back above 37.5, level previous identified as critical back in 2018 and 2020 in order to confirm a trend reversal. With price strength now flirting with the neutral level of 40, this would further help to confirm the long-term bearish momentum has passed, coinciding nicely with moving back above the 20 Week MA no doubt.



TL:DR

4hr bullish above it's MAs that are in bullish formation. Support is currently around $19.5K, however the momentum currently favours the bulls.
Daily is neutral with bullish potential, needs to confirm 50 Day MA as support ($19.7K) or otherwise accumulation zone around $20.2K.
Weekly is neutral with bearish potential, needs to avoid confirming 20 Week MA as resistance ($20.7K) in order to trend higher.

After closing yesterday (3rd Oct) back above the 20 Day MA price saw follow through to the 50 Day MA around $20.2K as optimism returned for the bulls after negating the immediate bearish momentum. With the 50 DMA continuing to decline in bearish formation, a correction towards volume support around $19.5K and 20 Day MA remains likely in order to turn previous resistance into support.

Price has otherwise returned back above the new volume point of control at $19.5K, signalling that price remains within the main accumulation zone as opposed to confirming it as distribution, despite resistance at current prices. So unlike previous bear market bounces to current prices in recent weeks, there is a reason to remain optimistic as price moves above key moving averages, instead of facing rejection.




In the short-term price has re-tested local resistance for the third time in order to significantly weaken it, with moving average support around $19.8K and price forming higher lows. Ideally price can consolidate within this resistance zone in order for a bullish cross-over of the 50 & 200 MAs, last seen in July and after the failed bullish re-cross last month. Otherwise an immediate continuation to the upside further into overbought territory on this time-frame would likely see a sharp rejection around $21.5K distribution zone, similar to last months rally, as opposed to a healthy and bullish consolidation in order to confirm new support.



While removing my short-term bearish bias after the close above $19.4K, price remains relatively neutral in the short-term, currently at previous resistance levels. A break above $20.5K gives an immediate target of $21.5K, with the possibility of continuing further into $23K resistance. So far, the month is otherwise showing support below $19.4K for a second consecutive month, after bears failed to break the lows.

Unlike previous "choppy" price action (sideways) in recent weeks with no clear direction, short-term speculators will likely be drawn towards the risk reward set up for a move to the upside. The target for the current rounding bottom that is close to confirming is 10% to the upside (or more with an entry <$20K), with a well established trading zone between $20K and $24K as a generic "range-bound" trade (support to resistance).

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After several weeks the Weekly RSI is otherwise close to break-out above 37.5, where price will either face resistance for the third time and remain range-bound, or otherwise push higher towards $25K.

Price has broken below the 50 MA after repeated rejection from the 200 MA. Personally, I'd say this is because these MAs are in bearish formation, as opposed to bullish. The risk now will be turning the 50 MA into new resistance, which becomes increasingly likely with price trading below all it's moving averages, unless a higher low on this short-term time-frame can be established in the near term:





The issue for me is that despite the relatively sideways market in recent weeks, price continues to respect bearish (declining) moving averages as resistance. Again today price is getting rejected by the 20 Day MA for the third consecutive day, which generally I find not very useful as an MA unless it's accurately highlighting bearish momentum which appears to be the case. The optimism left for me would be closing back back this MA (currently at $19.4K) that continues to decline, but otherwise if price is to return to $18.8K lower level of support, this support is only going to become weaker until it eventually breaks imo.



The Weekly chart is additionally highlighting selling pressure from previous support level around $20K for the second week in a row, confirming it as new resistance. So without reclaiming this level in the near future, consolidating at the lows below resistance and moving averages remains bearish to me. At least the target for closing above the 20 Day MA has declined considerably in order to neutralise the immediate bearish momentum, but otherwise without reclaiming above around $20.5K, to me price would only be neutral at best in the short-term, and at worst awaiting further bearish correction.

Im optimistic any time we can stay above the 50 MA on 4hr bars, thats roughly a week of price action and we are capped by the 200 MA as you say a larger time frame keeps us confined in any ambitions yet BTC refuses to resolve downwards so far.
  Rising lows I think we have to stay optimistic still though the range is squished flat until one day we break out violently quite unpredictably.  Alot of news and volume externally is perhaps why the chart is hard to read with no reliable trend ?



My general view is Im impressed BTC continues to do 'well' in a multi year view during a harsh environment with alot of pullback and sell offs occurring across the full range of sectors especially speculative assets.

While price remains the same since previous update, Bitcoin continues to get rejected by local resistance as well as\ the 200 MA. Focusing simply on moving averages, price is currently stuck between the 50 & 200 MA, with the longer-term MA trending downwards in bearish formation and the 50 relatively flat and therefore neutral. The only upside is that the 50 has been temporarily flipped into support.




Similarly on the Daily chart price is facing strong MA resistance, on this time-frame from the 20 Day MA. The bearish outlook is that after a couple of weeks of consolidation the bearish momentum remains strong (20 Day MA being a momentum indicator), while the bullish outlook would be a close above around $19.6K that could help to reverse this bearish momentum, now that this MA has declined considerably.



While the Month closed "only" -3% to the downside, it none the less became the lowest close since late 2020. Furthermore, it became the first ever rejection from the 50 Month MA, signalling weakness in Bitcoin's long-term uptrend. The only real positive is that so far the June lows haven't been broken, but given yesterday's close it's looking increasingly likely unless price can soon reverse to the upside.

Personally, I don't think I'm being too bearish here. More realistically bearish in the immediate term as price consolidates at the lows below local resistance. As I said, there is long-term bullish divergence at present, so I'm not ruling out bullish consolidation between $20K and $24K levels in the coming months, which from current prices would be at higher prices. However until price can move convincingly above $20.5K, and back into more of a neutral zone, then the consolidation remains bearish despite the bullish potential on long-term time-frames.

In general I still see the low as being in given the capitulation that has already occurred, and since then we've had 1 month sideways, 1 months upwards, 1 month downwards - more or less. So I see the likelihood of a month or so sideways (currently we've had about 10 days), then a month increase, another month correction maybe. Slowly grinding back to the upside but remaining range bound within the accumulation range. The opportunity to "quickly" re-test $30K seems long gone now unless there is some fundamental change that takes place, which is far from a bad thing as if price can remain within broader accumulation zone of $20K to $24K in the coming weeks/months then this certainly favours the bulls as moving averages decline and momentum can build for a much more significant break to the upside, rather than just $30K.


My general bearish sentiment is simply that since $20K was lost, we have been making lower lows, so unless this previous support level can be reclaimed, then the likelihood is continued further downside towards the lows as we've seen in the last month, even if not by that much as well as bears failing to break the lows. The pushes to the downside do appear to be less and less each time at least, but in itself bears losing momentum doesn't exactly imply the bulls are gaining any either - only neutralising the bearish momentum at best, hence price as been consolidating in recent weeks rather than recovering. As I said, I'll quite happily change my tune once $20.5K resistance is reclaimed, because this will help confirm that the current short-term consolidation is over and price is ready to move back to the upside, even if not by much.

I question the extent of your seeming bearishness here.

Sure, you may well be right that 1-3 months of consolidation in these $18k-ish to $21.5k-ish price territories may end up playing out, yet at the same time, I see no reason that king daddy might not end up doing one or two step ups and consolidate at higher points, because it is already pretty damned bearish to have BTC prices  spending so much time below the 200-week moving average (which is currently at almost $23,800), so largely we have been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average for a decently long period of time of more than 3 months already..

And yeah there have been quite a few negative happenings in bitcoinland and even lack of confidence in respect to macro-factors and their potential additional influences to continue to push negatively on prices, as well as the fact that once the rationale for getting down to these low price points has been understood, then there has been justification in which the momentum stays down and fails/refuses to go up until sufficient satisfaction has been achieved in regards to the vast majority of weak hands being shaken out.. including the fact that miners re still being pressured in such a way to make sure that the ones who have been shaken out are all of those that are going to be shaken out.

So I am still thinking that even if BTC prices do a little bit of a step up to just below the 200-week moving average or even just above the 200-week moving average, it is still a pretty negative place for BTC prices to be, even though it is more in line with historical longer term bottoms of the 200-week moving average, even though arguments can be made in regards to our living through more challenging times than usual with some more challenging macro-factors than usual, too.

In other words, I don't really have very many clues except to just want to chime into to say that I have my doubts about whether either staying down or even correcting more down (as some of the even more bearish than you predictors are wanting to say) is any kind of necessity that is any more justified than some scenarios that might still be reasonable, still feel sufficiently bearish even with one or two steps higher up in our consolidation arena... and still be enough of negative to keep everyone happy (or not happy) and feeling impending doom for the next 1-3 months or even longer before the consolidation can work itself out and perhaps resolve to the upside at some point soon thereafter, whether that would be in the next 1-3 months or if it might even take additional 3 months or more. 

None of these consolidation areas are guaranteed, because it is quite possible that we could get some kind of a false bounce up to $35k or some other unrealistically high number (like our 2019 period) that might take a decent time to get up there, and then correct back down over the following month to bring us more or less back down to somewhere around the 200-week moving average starting point.. again not any kind of necessary condition, but something that could end up playing out that involved a bounce first before consolidating back down in a lower level (somewhere around the 200-week moving average area.. or whatever ends up being then plausible).

Long time no update. Since breaking down below $20K price has remained bearish while consolidating at the lows. While price has been more or less stagnant for over a week, there has been some changes.

Price remains within clear cut horizontal support and resistance levels, as indicated by the volume profile. While rejection from $20.2K and failure of prices to move higher further confirms resistance, the failure of the bears to finally push prices below $18.7K shows bearish momentum is weaker than expected. While the trend remains bearish, bulls have at least negated bearish follow through for now. The target for an upside move would be around $21.5K if resistance can be cleared, where previous distribution occurred that remains an un-tested resistance level, while to the downside more likely much lower prices.



More relevant than the short-term noise of the 4hr chart is the Daily however. The volume point of control from the past 9+ months has now officially lowered from $20.8K to $19.5K, specifically due to the increased trading between $19K and $20K in recent days which is now additionally in line with the past 2+ years of trading point of control. While price remains bearish below this level, if price is able to continue consolidating at this support range rather than break down then not all hope is lost for a recovery. The current accumulation/distribution zone therefore is now more accurately between $19K and $21.5K, as opposed to $20K and $22K.



There is additionally strong bullish divergence on the Daily RSI as the price strength returns to neutral territory. This indicates room to re-test bullish conditions >60 given the divergence, as well as room for further downside towards/into oversold territory given the current long-term bear market structure. Not forgetting potentially the obviousness of both scenarios such as a re-test of $21.5K followed by further downside.



Notably despite bearish fed news in recent days, price has rallied to the upside as well as remained above $18.5K since the announcement. This is quite obviously because this news was already priced in, therefore instead of a further dump, price instead attempted a rally back to the upside. This is somewhat reminiscent of the "super bearish" July 13th CPI news at the lows whereby Bitcoin rallied 20% to the upside afterwards. This isn't to imply that a 20% pump is incoming, only that the same short-term fake-out bear trap to the downside occurred in both scenarios, followed by price rallying to the upside.



Overall, after 3 months of consolidation at the lows, it's likely price will need to consolidate for a further 1-3 months before being able to move significantly back to the upside, rather than any immediate rally back towards $30K, ie a breakout towards the end of the year if the current yearly lows hold. During this period it would create easier stepping stones for forming a bottom as moving averages continue to decline and long-term bullish divergences confirm, such as the CMF and RSI (as well as no doubt others), that so far have formed 3 months of bullish divergence, but clearly lack any confirmation of price follow through.

After a sharp 12% correction yesterday, price clearly failed to turn $21.5K previous resistance into support, thus falling back down to longer-term support range around $20K. With the 50 MA still rising but price below and the 200 MA continuing to decline, price remains bearish on this time-frame below both moving averages. However returning to the norm in between these two MAs around $21K would be a likely outcome.



While falling below the local support around $19.5K would again increase the chance or making new lows, price is currently holding the 0.382 fib (expected) retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high, so for now a re-test back towards $21.1K (0.618 retracement) at minimum becomes more likely in the short-term, even if it turns into a dead cat bounce before lower lows.




Despite anticipating some form of correction or consolidation, the selling became aggressive with the RSI returning not to bullish territory, but back to bearish territory. The positive outcome has been that price strength remains in it's month long uptrend, the longest seeen since the capitulation to $17.5K. The previously established bullish divergence support trend-line therefore remains in tact for now.





On the Daily chart price is back to the neutral 20 Day MA after failing to turn the 50 Day MA into support, as well as the RSI getting rejected from bullish territory, somewhat as anticipated. Arguably not a lot has changed compared to market structure a week or two ago as price remains within the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K, only that the 50 Day MA has returned to a bearish decline after failure of price holding higher levels. Therefore while the mid-term MA provides a bearish bias, the structure remains neutral within the accumulation zone, only really being rejected from leaving this zone to the upside.



TL:DR

Despite the bearish Daily candle yesterday, in reality it only managed to engulf 3 days worth of price action which isn't substantial, not even the +10% from 5 days ago. Most importantly price has found buyers again from $20K, the level which previously failed to hold as support prior to to the move to $18.5K. Without bearish follow through, it doesn't amount to that much apart from the obvious decline in price, as well as negating any immediate bullish outlook of higher price targets towards $23K to $24K, as well as successfully leaving the accumulation zone between $20K and $22K.

With Bitcoin now reaching as high as $22.6K, the buying pressure has started to decrease as price attempts to consolidate at higher levels. The immediate support to the downside remains at $21.5K local volume point of control, where the 200 MA is priced and beginning to shed it's bearish bias. Ideally price can consolidate here until the 50 MA reaches this level for a golden cross. To the upside the upper target would be around $24K, where there was previous distribution as well as the previous wedge support trend-line now confirmed as resistance (as of $25K swing high). The arrows represent the new found trading range.




While remaining bullish on the 4hr with price above the 50 & 200 MAs, the 4hr has since returned to bullish territory from overbought, after spending the longest time oversold on this time-frame since February. If price can find support from this level then further upside is to be expected, but otherwise as previously referenced the 4hr still needs to cool off with further consolidation at minimum.




The available trading range on the Daily chart is similar to the 4hr, however with a bullish close back above the 50 Day MA price could find support from ~$22K as opposed to $21.5K.



More relevant in this time-frame however is the RSI which is again attempting to enter bullish territory after previous failed attempts to maintain these levels in July & August. Hence despite the bullish close back above the 50 Day MA, it's likely price will struggle to maintain this higher price strength level, given the current conditions of the long-term bear market. If price is able to maintain bullish territory >60 on the RSI there remains further room to the upside on this time-frame towards $24K in order to reach overbought territory at 70. This will likely be determined by whether price can immediately turn the 50 Day MA into support.

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TL:DR


Price structure has otherwise met the conditions of being bullish on most time-frames that I outlined last week and can now be summarised as follows:

4hr: Bullish above it's MAs but likely needs more time to cool-off (consolidate or correct) towards nearby support of $21.5K
Daily: Returned to bullish above the flattened 50 Day MA as well as above the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K
Weekly: Remains bearish based on MAs but otherwise confirmed a macro higher low with a bullish close
Monthly: Remains neutral in between previous opening and closing prices of $20K to $23.3K

Just saw your comment, thanks for your input, and yes please don't   The market remains very fragile so could easily go either way right now

I otherwise mainly do it for myself as helps to formalise my opinions, but also so I can look back at things I said or anticipated and see where I was right or wrong. It's a lot easier to be wrong than right in this market, so it's useful to identify where mistakes are made etc. A lot of it is simply trying to identify levels of support and resistance, as this is the main stepping stone for successful trading.


You did well with that short earlier in the year catching most of the capitulation, so I believe you when you say this! I was too busy looking for price to find support  


It certainly is an interesting time. Many have already considered Bitcoin dead this year because it hasn't risen in price over the wave of inflation, but really in hindsight it just seems like it was due a bear market (time wise) that coincidentally timed in with inflation. For example, if there was no recession right now, price would probably be around the same price imo, just with some differing short-term price action to get there.

If it wasn't for the recession, I'm sure others would find another excuse for why Bitcoin is dead this year. Another way to look at this is that if high inflation arrived in 2020, when price was around $10K, then Bitcoin goes to $60K, many would have attributed that to the macro economic climate, as opposed to Bitcoin's own individual monetary policy and 4-year cycles for example.

My rambling point is many want/need to attribute "reasons" for price going up or down, rather than just accept it's the natural order of markets to go up and down, rather than in straight lines.


Indeed, I try and stick with the technicals rather than any fundamentals when analysing price. I like to think that the TA should at least reflect that, as well as the reality that a lot of the macro climate is already "priced in", so trying to trade of this is a backwards strategy imo. I'll never forget the super bearish CPI numbers in July causing price to pump 20% to the upside, completely against all so-called fundamental TA.

As I've said elsewhere, people don't capitulate because the recession is at it's worst - they sell because they are anticipating the worst before it happens.

Now the price shift from $21K+ to $22K+ is already happening in the market and I think it's definitely possible to go even higher in the near future if it's only for $24K+. Because realistically that number is very close to the amount of prices currently circulating in the market. I also have no doubts about the increase in the price of Bitcoin which could happen in an unexpected time, because Bitcoin has been trusted by many investors, companies, state governments and also daily crypto traders who always see Bitcoin as their main option in seeking profit.

On the 4hr, price has now confirmed $21.5K volume point of control into new support after moving above the 200 MA. This makes a drop back down to the support level of $20K less likely in the immediate term, unless this new support is broken. The RSI has otherwise remained overbought for 3 days since the move to $20.6K, further highlighting the strong buying pressure right now. Immediate targets for the current upswing would be around $23K to $24K where there was some distribution from sellers, otherwise further confirming the new support for the RSI to cool off remains quite likely.




Today price is attempting to move out of the "neutral zone" between $20K and $22K, otherwise considered the long-term accumulation range. Additionally price is testing the relatively flat (neutral) 50 Day MA at $20.2K that will be a key level to close above on the Daily time-frame in order for bullish continuation, that additionally lines up with the RSI entering bullish territory >60. With the 200 Day MA fast declining and now priced around $30K, where previous support failed, this becomes the next likely target on this time-frame based on the current potential for the Daily chart to become bullish.




More interestingly yesterday the Weekly closed strong at $21.8K helping to confirm a double bottom / higher macro low. Using the 260 Week MA as a 5 Year MA, it becomes clearer that price is finding support from it's macro long-term uptrend. The next test will be the 200 Week MA around $23.3K, while also the 20 Week MA is fast declining now at $24.8K that will need to be cleared for a full blown price reversal.



While based on price action it's still early days to be confirming this local low as a macro low (especially based on the Monthly time-frame that remains very neutral), with the Weekly RSI continuing to trend higher it's certainly looking more likely as price moves back above $22K. Based on the 2019 bottom and relevant MAs, we could still only be 60% towards forming this bottom, ie another couple of months before finally clearing the $25K hurdle, rather than an immediate reversal now that $20K has again held as support on longer time-frames, which could therefore lead to further consolidation between $21K and $24K.

Keep going.  You analysis is legendary in my opinion.  Hope I did not just jinx you.

I find this an extremely interesting market currently.  Not only is this action inside this particular bitcoin "cycle" somewhat unique, but we are in a very unusual macro environment for the entire Earth currently.  I am not well versed in TA at ALL.  But I am good at predicting the future.  Had I acted on all the things I have seen I would be muuch richer. Lol.  In fact I just filled up the tank of my little 4 cyl diesel truck because... diesel?  We are going to see that go up soon. See if I am not right.

That said, I know your tech analysis has nothing to do with those variables... but seeing what is happening technically with BTC against that backdrop is an engine for thought.  Like I said... keep it up.

After some antipcated resistance from the 200 MA at $21.6K, as well as short-term volume point of control, price has since closed above these levels on the 4hr after consolidation highlighting the strength of buying pressure. Despite the 4hr reaching oversold levels close to 80 on the RSI, the bulls remain fully in control on this time-frame. The short-term question is whether the $21.5K level of old resistance can become new support, or whether price will correct further in order for the RSI to cool off. Needless to say, betting against such a strong uptrend at present is only asking for further short liquidations.




With price now clearing the bearish trending 200 MA on the 4hr with ease, moving above the 50 Day MA around $22K that has since lost it's bearish bias as it moves sideways can't be ruled out, I'm therefore not anticipating this level to act as resistance, despite the need for a short-term correction in order for the 4hr to return to bullish territory from oversold, which could instead come from sideways consolidation. I had previously considered a re-test of $20K support after the strong move to the upside, but after today's consolidation it seems the bulls have other ideas, even if this level remains possible.




With only 24 hours to go until the Weekly close, a strong bullish candle looks increasingly likely, possibly around $21.5K rather than simply $20K given the current short-term price strength. While this won't rule out a correction next towards $20K, it will help to further confirm a macro higher low on the weekly time-frame that remains crucial for further confirmation of the $17.5K low being in.

The similarity with the 2019 bottom is becoming increasingly clear; that of a bear trap higher low 2 months after the initial low, followed by reclaiming the 50 Day MA and grinding higher. Key dates next week will be the 15th when MtGox finalises coin distribution as well as Ethereum merge date, followed by the 18th - whereby it will be officially be 3 months since the $17.5K (enough time for a bottom to form).

Price had a strong bullish move today, not only ripping through the $20K level that was previous support with no resistance, but also reaching $21K levels where price previously faced resistance. While my outlook has naturally changed from bearish to bullish as price increases by 10%, it's worth noting the bearish trending 200 MA is at $21.6K that is likely to act as resistance, despite $20K failing to do so.




The bullish divergence on the 4hr most certainly played out with the RSI reaching and currently maintaining overbought conditions, the highest levels since May this year (over 3 months):



On the Daily chart, price is back within the $20K to $22K accumulation zone, as well as above the volume point of control from the past year at $20.8K after confirming a double bottom reversal. While not a fan of double bottoms, I am a believer in high buying pressure. Clearing the 50 Day MA around $22K will be the last signal to confirm a full reversal and bullish trend on the Daily time-frame.

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Referencing yesterday's analysis of price, it seems clear the 4hr is providing bullish potential (between the 50 & 200 MAs) while the Daily chart has returned to neutral (back in accumulation and in between the 20 & 50 Day MAs). More relevant right now is the bullish wick on the Weekly chart that if confirms with a close above $20K, would confirm a higher low, approximately 3 months after the yearly low. With the 4hr due for a pull-back towards $20K near to the 50 MA, finding support from this level will be the required bullish confirmation in order to close the week strong after a 15% rally from the recent lows.




Ironically, this is exactly what happened. The bulls took advantage of how fragile the short-term bear trend was, and have turned the market to their advantage with a strong break above $20K. To be clear, this isn't just a short-term reversal of price, this is additionally signalling a macro higher low as a confirmation of a bear market bottom. Only the Daily chart remains neutral while short to long-term looks very bullish.


This will be the most important weekly close for the past few months. With the 4hr and Weekly chart looking bullish while the Daily chart remains relatively neutral in between moving average and the accumulation zone, closing the week above $20K will confirm the bullish wick. Ideally a close above $21K would avoid the indecisive doji candle now price has already reached +6% from the candle open.

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No, most people will consider this a dead cat bounce until price reaches >$25K. But already it's looking like the higher low on a macro scale (weekly) that will likely confirm by the end of the week. I was very sceptical once $20K was lost and price became increasingly bearish, but otherwise this is type of price movement was exactly what was required to help confirm that the low is already in.

^^That "sudden change" is the thing that looks the most realistic to me. I get that not many people feels the same way but I feel like if we could end up seeing it change like that, then we could go up way too high without any trouble. People do not see how easy it could be to reach 24k+ prices again, yes it's not happening right now, but if we were to try to go up, it would be super simple and that's the point.

This is why I am not scared as a bitcoin holder, I trust that we are going to have that easily and it is going to end up with a success for sure. I know that it is going to be taking a while, but it is going to get back there for sure without a doubt.

Rather than do another full analysis of price today, while price remains bearish under $20K, I thought it'd be worth correcting myself on the general theory that there is nothing bullish in the short-term chart right now. Currently there is strong bullish divergence on the RSI that is holding on the 4hr chart after the drop to $18.5K, so it wouldn't be accurate to say there is nothing bullish in the short-term right now:



While this bullish divergence does leave room to re-test the downside, probably around similar prices, it none the less does show that each downside move since August 19th has become weaker and weaker, with selling pressure (volume) also confirming this theory. Given price remains in a bear market, the confirmation of this bullish divergence would be an RSI move back to bullish territory above 60 (that remains elusive).


Despite the bearish outlook on all time-frames, with a new yearly closing low on the Daily chart, as well as general bearish price action on the 4hr, it remains possible for the bulls to neutralise this bearish sentiment without much increase in price. To summarise this theory, it would be as follows based on a close at the end of the week:

>$20K: Weekly chart creates a bullish wick to the downside in order to create a macro higher low, 4hr further confirms bullish divergence theory (bullish potential)
>$21K: Daily chart becomes less bearish, almost neutral, price returns to the volume point of control of the accumulation/distribution zone (mid-term neutral)
>$22K: Price confirms $20K to $22K trading range as accumulation again, as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA (bullish on most time-frames)

While it might seem unrealistic for price to reclaim all of these levels if any, the point is that if this does happen it can swiftly change the immediate bearish outlook on the charts right now. Based on the Bitcoin's volatility at present, which is at considerable lows, a return of volatility (even if only short-term) is to be expected, either with a break-down to new lows or a reclamation of previous accumulation zone.

I'm not even suggesting that any of these bullish-based scenarios will play-out, only that the bearish outlook right now remains fragile, as it wouldn't take much of a move to the upside to change the outlook.

With yesterday's break-down, price has reached the measured move target of the descending triangle but remains increasingly bearish. The bears are threatening to break the final higher low from June that would likely see a re-test of $17.5K yearly low. Furthermore the local volume point of control has now lowered to around $20K, which will likely act as new resistance if price is able to move higher.




With price now confirming $20K to $22K trading zone as distribution from the past years worth of trading volume, after initially confirming it as accumulation, all hope for bullish continuation has been lost for now in the mid-term unless $20K is reclaimed. If the bulls are able to achieve this, then it would neutralise the bearish outlook for now until $22K is reclaimed which would provide a bullish bias.




With price closing a new yearly low on the Daily time-frame ($18.8K), price has found some buyers at oversold levels (<30) which remains the only hope for a relief rally. There is an argument for hidden bullish divergence given the double bottom closing lows and price strength at higher levels, but this also means price can fall lower while maintain regular bullish divergence before seeing an upswing in price.



It could be argued that price remains in an accumulation/distribution level based on the past two years of trading volume with a point of control around $20K, that therefore includes trading from late 2020, but ultimately the main concern is the large volume gap between $18K and $14K, and therefore a collapse to considerably lower levels would be highly likely if the yearly lows are lost.



On the Weekly time-frame, a close back above $20K (the weeks opening price) would provide the sort of bullish wick to the downside that would help confirmation a higher low after 3 months of consolidation at the lows (enough time to form a macro bottom). Price would therefore first have to breach this resistance level which has been proven to be a high volume selling area, so won't be easy.

Fortunately price only needs to increase by 6% and close the week at this level (~$20K) in order to return some bullish bias on the Weekly time-frame, but this will be against the tide of sellers in the short to mid-term time-frame that have shown strength in recent days and weeks. With the fear around MtGox distribution finalising next week, this is also unlikely to inspire many buyers right now.

Firstly, I personally wouldn't trading using the monthly RSI. That'd be for investing at best, as it's based on the longest time-frame possible: the monthly time-frame. Or otherwise just completely ignoring as it's historically never been bearish (<40) so doesn't really tell you much, only when price is overbought on this time-frame. It's therefore a "one-purpose indicator" for selling too early, not much else imo. Only this year did it first become relevant when it signalled bearish divergence at $69K, but otherwise has never signalled any bullish divergence, which is one of the main uses of the RSI generally speaking.

It also doesn't suggest price hasn't bottomed, only that there isn't confirmation of a bottom. The confirmation on the monthly wouldn't come until >$30K at least if $17.5K were the bottom. For example the RSI rebounding in 2019 and back above the mid-level was only by the end of April, when price was at $5.2K. Sure that price was a good entry for the long-term, but also far away both time & price from the $3.2K low four months prior to that. Similar to 2015 the break-out of the RSI was in October 2015, 10 months after the low with a close of $300, +100% from the lows of $150. Neither time did it signal any useful bullish divergence. Meanwhile, there were a handful of indicators that were able to confirm a bottom prior to that.

TL:DR: You're highlighting an indicator that's currently neutral (between 40-60) to highlight that we're in a bear market and the bottom isn't in, makes no sense. Maybe wait until it turns bearish first?

This is otherwise why investors use the Weekly RSI, rarely ever the Monthly. The Monthly RSI would be useful for confirming a bottom out of a decade long bear market, like for example with Gold in the 90s where it finally formed strong bullish divergence in order to confirm a bottom in the market after being in a downtrend for 19 years. This also remain the only relevant example I can actually think of!

Definitely, we need the TA to look at where the market could possibly go.  We tend to play this game to make money. Just like you, we trade oftentimes when there is an opportunity.



This is a monthly chart where RSI had not yet bottomed. We might be able to see this likely going to happen because of the panic due to the economy falling down actually and we are still early in this winter.

Well put. I do otherwise think news can effect price short-term, but that usually it's "priced in". For example recession and war, these factors have already been priced in and have been a factor for months already. Markets usually bottoms 3-6 months before the worst is over. People don't sell at the point where the economic climate is at it's worst, they sell because they are anticipating the worst. It's a lagging indicator at best.


I guess I've always been expecting a 3-6 month bottom, similar to 2019 as well as 2015 to some degree, as well as ironically like right now, rather than 2020 re-test of the lows. But you raise a valid point that a low below $17.5K could well be like 2020 with a quick wick and price recovering back to a sensible level shortly after. It also makes sense if price is coming down to around an 8-10 year average for an asset that's 12 years old, as it would be considered by many who believe in the fundamentals rather than the macro climate fears that price is at an enormous discount never seen before, roughly 50% more than usual.

To be fair with March 2020 however, there wasn't any fear in December 2019, it was the spread and when lock-downs were being considered or happening in March that the fear set in, or otherwise fears of immediate recession. So in this sense, for the short-term price action, I can see how it affected everything. But also the swift recovery was based on the fact that the news wasn't that relevant after all (hence bear trap). Some would say that price was destined to re-test the 200 Week MA one year later, and therefore it presented a great buying opportunity, regardless of the macro environment.

---

Also worth pointing out that despite the short-term, as well as now mid-term bearish outlook, not all hope is lost in the long-term, based on the original title of this thread at least:



While it seems unlikely, as well as to myself, if price does rebound next week after closing this week near to oversold conditions (which is looking likely) it would be a bullish re-test of oversold conditions. Price could then be trading back in the $20K to $22K accumulation zone, but with the bullish factor of finding buyers prior to becoming oversold again. Call it hopium, but that's how it'd look to me if it occurs.

Because people believe in news. They don't actually believe in White paper, core concept, power of the network, effect of finite controlled supply, possibly lost Bitcoin, etc.

Additionally, they believe in news as the reasons of all falls or rises of Bitcoin. When they have a few years in the market, they will realize news are not real reasons of market movement.

Trap or not, if it happens, it will be actually a lower low or a final bottom. Like the crash in March 2020 (as some believed it is because of Covid19), then price soared to the moon after washing out all weak hands. In fact, Covid-19 outbreak was in December 2019 and after 3 months, we knew that it was already a pandemic but just lack of the official announcement from WHO. After WHO made a press conference to announce it as a pandemic, namely Covid-19, all markets collapsed.

Do people believe the announcement is the cause of market crashes? It's not!

Whether related to "fundamental news" or not, the technical analysis not only suggested the likelihood of this exact this scenario, but it also happened: a drop to around $18K to $19K depending on how you measure the move of the descending triangle. I've never understood the concept of not being able to use technical analysis, as regardless of the news, this was the most likely scenario at play.

The only times I do find "fundamental news" relevant is when TA suggests the likelihood of a scenario happening, and instead the opposite occurs, then it can be attributed more to such a news event. Given that (imo) there are enough TA & fundamental factors to confirm the low is already in at $17.5K, if price breaks below this, then it'd be fair to attribute to the macro climate. Especially if a bear trap low occurs.

I don't mean to sound rude or disregard your argument, but merely that one doesn't need to follow the news to see what was most likely to happen in this case, or attribute the news to such predictable price movements.

This plunge I think is more related to the fundamental news we see today with the war getting more brutal when it comes to sanctions which Russia had retaliated thru the gas pipe. I'm not sure if we can use the technical analysis anymore for this. If it breaks that last support on $17K, I'm not hoping it will happen but there is a possibility for $14k.

There is no way out of this if the economy is not rolling especially if this war prolongs. We can already see people burning thier electricity bill and demand not to pay their taxes. Looks like an apocalyptic scenario as they protest on the streets.

As an update, price now appears to be forming a bearish descending triangle, with similar target as referenced previously. Price is continuing to get rejected by the 50 MA despite flattening out (shedding it's bearish bias) while the week-long horizontal support continues to weaken. While price has barely changed since previous update, the short-term bearish price structure has grown considerably, despite bullish divergence.

The neutral outlook would be reclaiming $20.5K and invalidating the short-term lower highs structure, but without returning to ~$21K distribution zone the short-term bullish would still be lacking.




Despite price remaining within the accumulation/distribution zone ($19.8K to $22K specifically), price is failing to find support from this lower level. As previously referenced, the RSI remains bearish and threatening to return to oversold levels if $21K (volume point of control) isn't reclaimed. The 50 Day MA is soon to start declining rapidly, returning the bearish confirmation in the mid-term as price remains below.




This still remains the case, that a higher low is still more than possible, similar to 2019 price structure which also at the time had a considerable bearish short-term outlook. Additionally until the long-term trading range is confirmed as distribution, it remains an accumulation zone with price within it off the lows. The Weekly close yesterday above $20K was almost promising, but still lacks any bullish follow through.

Despite avoiding a new monthly low close below $20K yesterday, price is failing to confirm this level as support, instead creating lower highs in bearish fashion. If current price action is again within a bear flag structure, then the target would be around $18K to $19K, between the recent lows and lowest 4hr close. At present, this looks increasingly likely rather than re-testing $21K previous support.




The bullish divergence on the 4hr remains in tact, but this doesn't rule out a move towards $18K in order to further confirm. With further rejection from the neutral level of 50, this also looks increasingly likely.


Finding support from the lower band of the accumulation around $20K still remains to be seen, with instead the Daily RSI getting rejected from neutral territory (40-60) and remaining bearish. After the initial bounce from oversold territory last week, price is threatening to return to oversold territory unless $21K is reclaimed in the coming days, followed by moving above $22K in order to return a bullish bias.



The only realistic hope is that price is now at the 0.236 fib retracement from $17.5K low to $25K, which is the same retracement level that price formed a higher low in 2019 to confirm the bear market low after moving from $3.2K to $4.2K and back down to $3.4K, so not all hope is lost quite yet. $20K is therefore the "line in the sand" for the bulls to confirm $17.5K as the bear market low, which remains entirely possible.


Outlook now changed to short-term bearish, but still mid-term neutral as price remains within the accumulation zone.

Price action today remains promising, despite the bearish looking double bottom in the short-term. Overall the bulls are continuing to defend $20K levels with a desire to push prices back to volume point of control around $21.4K in order to try and neutralise the current short-term bearish momentum. If it weren't for the bullish divergence referenced below, I'd be a lot more bearish at current prices.




With price re-testing $19.5K level and swiftly rebounding back above $20K, this has helped to further confirm the bullish divergence on the RSI as currently on the 4hr price strength remains neutral around 50, despite the high volume selling yesterday. It remains to be seen whether there will be a short-term relief rally to the upside before breaking the lows, but for now bears are struggling to push prices lower.




Long-term accumulators are continuing to defend the $20K level as the lower band of this long-term trading range for the third day now which again is promising, but without a move back above $22K in order to re-confirm it as an accumulation zone, it remains a trading range. Similar to the 4hr, price will need to move back to $21K in order to neutralise the immediate bearish outlook of lower prices.




Outlook remains the same, short-term slightly bullish, mid-term neutral as price consolidates within an accumulation zone and long-term optimistic that the low is already in.

Has been a few days without analysing the price, as it fell from the volume point of control from $21K down to $20K. Price today is attempting to bounce back from the lower level of the accumulation zone which is promising, but remains far from convincing for a reversal. Resistance to the upside will come from $21.4K local distribution level, followed by $23K levels where price initially fell from. The break-down target from the bear flag remains at around $19K, but given price has already reached $19.5K as bulls begin to defend $20K, it seems price has already fallen far enough, as the bearish momentum short-term begins to subside.




There is some hope on the 4hr as the RSI has confirmed strong bullish divergence after re-testing oversold conditions, similar to the previous lows in May and June, this time at a higher price than yearly low. However given the resistance over-head, it's difficult to confirm this as a local low until price moves above $22K and outside of the current accumulation/distribution zone, in order to confirm it again as accumulation.



On the Daily chart price remains within the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K after briefly dipping below to $19.5K. As previously referenced, convincingly moving below $20K would return the bearish momentum long-term, but fortunately the bears have yet to achieve this, hence despite the bearish posture of price structure, I'm remaining neutral within this accumulation/distribution zone.



On the Weekly chart price closed at the second lowest level this year at $19.5K, just above the 2017 ATH closing weekly price of $19.3K. While the low close is certainly concerning long-term after failing to turn the 200 WMA into support, the RSI hasn't yet returned to oversold conditions, while price bouncing back this week would help to further confirm $17.5K as a low.



While not expecting a quick reversal back above $22K this week, I am anticipating further accumulation and distribution between $20K and $22K, specifically long-term buyers against short-term sellers, that now includes buyers from the previous two months who initially intended to be long-term holders but have changed their minds. Until then, price remains neutral within this zone until further confirmation.

Price is continuing to defend the long-term and shorter-term volume point of control (accumulation level) around $21K. Yesterday closed with another wick to the downside, showing that buyers remain present, despite being unable to push prices higher. While remaining bearish short-term, my bias is beginning to shift back to neutral as bears fail to push prices lower for yet another day, despite the bear flag pattern.

 


Despite anticipating a re-test of the lower level around $20K based on RSI previous fractals, it seems that for now that the 4hr has avoided this re-test, instead comfortably returning to neutral RSI levels instead of being rejected and re-testing oversold conditions, as per previous times when the RSI reached deeply oversold levels <20. The notable difference being that this time around, it hasn't been with a new bear market low.



Price otherwise remains within a bear flag structure, that if broken targets around $19K (even if those prices are short lived). Personally I think the bart pattern back to the upside now remains just as likely given the bearish pressure is subsiding, as noted by the RSI as well as the CMF, that has returned to positive after 2-month lows. Although low volume, the buying pressure has reached similar levels to previous peaks in price last month at $24K as well as $22.5K, despite being at relative lows, which is a positive sign as well as difference compared to previous lows.


Although still anticipating a move in either direction as opposed to further consolidation at relative lows, based on the current bear flag structure the measured move target would be around $19K, even with $20K holding as support, so wicks below the accumulation level can't be ruled out at this point. Despite last week closing bearish, the bears have so far failed to follow through this week it's worth noting.

I believe that bearish closing mainly happened because of the fear index situation. I mean people are scared a ton because of the bad news coming from mt.gox trustee considering to sell their tens of thousands of bitcoins and that’s mainly the reason why it’s like this. People need to realize that there isn't a situation where we are doing something wrong right now, it’s doing fine and we shouldn't be worried about it.

This is what the world is all about and the problem is that crypto could have bearish moments that is "fabricated" basically and not data backed, all because of some news. This doesn't mean that it is really bearish, it is just looking like that.

Not much has changed on the Daily chart today, only that as time passes without $22K level being reclaimed price looks increasingly bearish in the short-term while under the 50 Day MA. Hence re-testing the lower boundary of the accumulation zone around $20K becomes increasingly likely, however if this occurs I do still think this will hold in the long-term, based on the long-term accumulation so far. While $20K to $22K remains a good level for long-term accumulation, it looks far from a good trading opportunity, with either returning back above $22K or re-testing $20K looking like a better risk/reward entry price for long positions.




As with the Daily chart, the 4hr remains bearish with the bearish crossover of the 50 & 200 MAs that are now both declining, despite the bulls continuing to defend $21K. As with the daily chart, reclaiming $22K would help to confirm a higher low, but otherwise based on recent RSI fractals, it looks likely for price to re-test around $20K in order to form a higher low and re-test oversold conditions, similar to previous bottoms.




With the V-shaped recovery very much off the table, a swift recovery would be more likely in the form of a bart pattern (green fractal) if the bulls fail to push prices back down to $20K. After a few days of consolidation within a tight trading range since the weekend, the market looks ready to make a move either down to $20K or back to $23K recent local distribution level, whith bearish price action favouring the former level for now (blue fractal). Somewhat optimistically, in the mid-term (next couple of weeks), I do see the 200 WMA being reclaimed again, despite remaining neutral at current prices within the $20K to $22K accumulation zone.

On the Daily chart the bulls continue to defend $21K, however there remains low buying pressure as well as low volume as price struggles to move higher. With the week closing bearish yesterday (-11%), price risks falling lower to the lower range of accumulation around $20K if the volume point of control can't be maintained as support. Mid-term I remain neutral as price consolidates within this critical accumulation zone.




On the 4hr price is looking more bearish than bullish as price struggles to leave the accumulation zone around $22K, only to be rejected and return to $21K. While continuing to hold $20.8K remains positive, this support is only weakening as bears continue to re-test this level as support. As previously stated, price needs to move above $22K in order to return some bullish bias, that so far remains elusive.




While still possible to see a swift recovery this week from support levels, the V-shaped recovery is looking increasingly unlikely as price consolidates sideways for the past two days, with neither the bulls nor the bears able to move the price in either significant direction. Avoiding an early week correction (as has been the case in previous weeks), after a bearish weekly close, would be a positive sign however.

TL:DR: Short term bearish, mid-term neutral, long-term optimistic.

After reaching the break-down target of $20.8K, price has since found some buyers. Although far from a convincing higher low and support level, bulls have managed to avoid catastrophe by managing to hold this key level as support for now. With price only 2.5% away from $22K levels, re-confirming the $20K to $22K level as accumulation would return the bias in favour of the bulls for the mid-term.




With the 50 & 200 MAs crossing bearish, the 4hr chart isn't looking as hopeful as the Daily chart with price now in a range between local accumulation and distribution levels $21K and $23K, with the latter likely to act as new resistance where the 200 MA lies. After the RSI reached sub 15 levels, price has now returned to bearish territory, indicating a local low could have been formed for now.




The fractal for a V-shaped recovery remains in tact so far, but price will have to rally in the coming hours and days in order for this to confirm, otherwise re-testing lower in the accumulation zone around $20K becomes increasingly likely. With the Hash Ribbons indicator now signalling a buy on the Daily time-frame, there is now understandably increased optimism that price will continue to move higher, as network growth returns.

33 means it's bearish, not oversold. <30 is oversold, 30-40 is bearish. For sure it could return to oversold conditions <30 which could provide another good buying opportunity.

Bitcoin's Weekly RSI has never reached 20, only 25 at lowest (this year), but sure you could wait for 20 and it'd be a good buying opportunity if it happens, even if unlikely imo.

The RSI indicator is indeed very helpful for predicting or analyzing the trend of a price,
here indeed the RSI of Bitcoin on a weekly time frame is still at 33, meaning it is already oversold,
but I think the trend will still fall below 30, and if the RSI is already at number 20 then that's the time for us to buy!

As for a Weekly RSI update, last week price strength failed to close above 37.5, that remains relevant in the context of 2019 bear market. The RSI was initially rejected from this level and price saw a correction, with the trend reversal then confirmed above it. Currently this bear market has taken a similar path, that of being rejected by 37.5, with the hope of finding support around 34 this week, or risk falling lower to re-test oversold conditions, such as in 2015. Although far from an exact science, given in 2015 the re-test of price strength was much lower prior to a trend reversal (at 32), the patterns remain relevant today.



I still very much consider the bottom to be in, but as explained the RSI leaving oversold conditions doesn't confirm a trend reversal, only that the bottom is currently forming.

After high volume selling yesterday, the highest since the capitulation to $17.5K, price has now reached the break-down target of $20.8K volume point of control. Within the overall accumulation zone of $20K to $22K, price remains relatively neutral (but within a bear market) at this support level, despite being under the 50 Day MA that will now begin start to flatten out in order lose it's mid-term bullish bias.




On the 4hr, price is now between the local accumulation zone of $21K and the distribution zone of $23K. The 50 & 200 MAs are about to bear cross, confirming the end of bullish momentum on this time-frame, with the RSI reaching the lowest oversold conditions since June 13th. The possibility of continuing to the downside towards $20K remains high, unless bulls can recover the price back above $22K.




As previously mentioned regarding this fractal, there remains a strong possibility of a V-shaped recovery, based on the previous fractal of a sort of rising triple top, before breaking resistance to the upside, however falling any lower than the current support level would negate this type of immediate recovery. Price has now corrected -17% from the swing high, similar to the early July correction of -16% from $22K strong resistance to $19K.

As emphasised throughout the week, breaking below the $23K level local accumulation level would most likely bring prices down to $22K previous resistance levels, with a target of long-term accumulation level around $21K. Now that this has happened relatively quickly, as expected with such break-down patterns and trend reversals, we can confirm the short-term bias favours the bears again. But for how long?




Despite failing to find any buyers around the 50 Day MA, priced at $22.2K, there still remains the long-term accumulation level around $21K that will likely act as the "last line in the sand" for the bulls. Though the lower level of the accumulation zone around $20K can't be ruled out for any quick dips/wicks to the downside, failing to hold the volume point of control as support would turn my mid-term bias from bullish to bearish.



The current short-term positive outlook would be that price has already fallen enough to the downside in order to find support, despite not quite reaching the target of $21K. Similar to the move from $24K to $21K, as well as $22.5K to $19K prior to that, price has since corrected -14% from the swing high. Therefore it remains more than possible for price to quickly find support before continuing to rally to the upside.


 
While this may seem like a hopeful outlook now that $25K has been confirmed as a strong resistance level, similar price action occurred last month from the $22K resistance level, whereby after two -15% corrections, price quickly rallied back to the upside. I otherwise realise that for many it's a time to panic, but personally I see it as a time to remain cautious and wait for buyers to step in rather than catching a failing knife.

On the weekly chart, after 6 weeks of bullish looking candles, this week looks set for bearish candle unless $23K can be reclaimed as support (where the 200 WMA lies). While unlikely it does remain possible, though I'm more inclined to think any immediate bullish price action would return next week, after what I believe will be a fake-out to the downside before returning to the $22K to $24K range.

Today price is attempting to hold trend-line support of the bearish rising wedge close to the rising 200 MA. A break-down from the wedge remains around $21K, although there remains an argument for further consolidation around $23K as well as support from $22K, as shown on the daily chart. A volume point of control has now moved to $24K now confirming more distribution above than accumulation below.




On the daily chart, price remains between $24.5K resistance (bearish down-trending 100 Day MA) and $22.2K (bullish rising 50 Day MA). Reclaiming a closing above $24.5K (+5%) would return the immediate bullish bias on this time-frame, while a break below $23K local accumulation would continue the bearish trend towards $22K with long-term accumulation average priced at $21K.




It's so far worth noting that price is currently following the previous corrective/consolidation pattern of -9% to $23K which is hopeful, as opposed to more aggressive bearish corrective fractals of -14% that would take prices below $22K. Either way, the type of correction will likely confirm itself in the coming days, dependant on holding $23K support level.

As the immediate accumulation/distribution zone has become weaker, bulls have so far failed to turn $24K into new support as price moves below the 50 MA on the 4hr. With the 200 MA priced around $23K, this remains the area of support price will need to hold in order to continue to the upside, or maintain higher prices. Otherwise a re-test of lower levels previously mentioned becomes increasingly likely.




With the highest daily close just below $24.5K, the bears have now turned this into new resistance, close to the bearish trending 100 Day MA as price again forms another doji reversal candle near the highs. While the support trend-line remains in tact, breaking below $23K local accumulation increases the chances of a move back down to the 50 Day MA around $22K in order to re-test it as support.



The original outlook therefore remains the same as price continues to correct, that of consolidation around $23K in order to invalidate the bearish rising wedge pattern which remains possible, or otherwise a break-down below the support trend-line of the wedge in order to re-test the long-term accumulation zone between $20K and $22K, where the the volume point of control lies around 21K,

 

Today bulls are again attempting to defend $24K on the 4hr chart, in order to turn previous resistance into new support, but otherwise struggling to bounce back to the upside from the 50 MA. Immediate support remains at previous accumulation zone of $23K, where the 200 MA as well as 200 WMA are priced. Failure to hold this level will likely see price re-test long-term accumulation zone of $20K to $22K.




Yesterday confirmed another doji reversal candle, indicating the price is yet again getting rejected from higher levels. While the bears are struggling to push prices below $24K, the support level is none the less becoming weaker as $23K becomes more likely in the near future, in order to confirm this accumulation level as new support with a higher low. Failing that, a return to the 50 Day MA @ $22.1K becomes likely.

With price again getting rejected from $25K today, the bearish rising wedge is further confirming itself with the previously mentioned target of around $20.8K (previous support and volume point of control). Breaking below $24K will further invalidate the bullish ascending triangle break-out with a target of +20% to $29K while price currently holds onto to the 50 MA in the hope of continued upside (or re-tests of resistance).



 
On the daily chart the situation becomes a a bit clearer. Price has failed to close above $24.5K for the third consecutive day while today is forming another doji reversal candle, indicating a further correction. Price is also now finding resistance from the 100 Day MA (that I haven't previously been charting), but appears relevant when looking at price action back in March around this level, that of rejection before finding support at lower levels. Additionally the rejection comes where the long-term support trend-line of the previous wedge pattern remains, suggesting it has become new resistance for now.



With similar price movement to that of March around the 100 Day MA would look like this, there are some alternative fractals in the immediate term to consider, if in fact the bottom is in and this isn't bearish consolidation before lower lows. Typically rejection from a bearish trending MA will bring prices down to the lower time-frame rising MA, such as the 50 Day  around $22K, there still remains a reasonable possibility of holding the 200 WMA as immediate support and instead consolidating around $23K local accumulation zone. While keeping open-minded, breaking the support trend-line to the downside would more likely see $22K prices than further consolidation around $23K, even if the latter would be very bullish (negating the bearish rising wedge pattern).




Despite the short-term bearish outlook on shorter-term time-frames, the Weekly closed it's third consecutive week above the 200 WMA by +5% further confirming it as support for now. Hence holding $23K this week remains more than possible, even with prices falling to $21K or $22K levels given the shorter-term bearish patterns in play.  
 

TL:DR

As an update from the original analysis of the RSI leaving oversold conditions. Despite initial rejection in early July, the weekly RSI did confirm a break-out outside of oversold territory (<30) a couple of weeks later at the same price of $22.5K. This level was then turned into new support a few weeks later. For reference sake, the RSI this week is now at 38.4 (though not confirmed with a close at this level yet).



I referenced it elsewhere (can't remember where), other than leaving oversold territory, that 37.5 was arguably another critical level of the RSI in order to confirm a trend reversal (red line). This is a level where further upside has occurred once this level has beeen breached such as in 2019 as well as 2015 (after initially entering oversold conditions). This could arguably also be around 35, the mid-point of bearish price strength.

It's also worth noting that despite the relatively tame price action in recent weeks, between $22K and $25K, the RSI is increasing fast and close to crossing into neutral territory (40 - green line). This would officially confirm the bearish momentum as passed, even if not necessarily confirming bullish momentum either, as the likelihood of further consolidation at higher levels remains strong (and has yet to be seen).

On the 4hr price remains bullish, however there is an argument forming for a bearish rising wedge, given price has broken through the $24K resistance level but failed to move higher and formed bearish divergence. While this could just be weekend price action and lack of momentum, the target for a break-down would be around $20.8K long-term volume point of control if $23K local accumulation level and support trend-line is lost as support. It's worth noting the support trend-line can be easily modified to still include three touch-points at candle closes as low as $23K if necessary, excluding the most recent wick.




Not much change on the daily chart though price has closed a second consecutive candle above the $24K resistance level, even if only to get rejected by $24.5K. Ideally this is a slow break-out of an ascending triangle with a target around $29K, but there remains a lack of volume and higher prices (>$25K) to confirm such a break-out at present. Fortunately the 50 Day MA now lies at $22K level for support. Realistically price will need to hold $24K break-out level and previous resistance level and turn it into support for the ascending triangle to remain in tact which remains possible if bears fail to push prices lower.  




The weekly chart is otherwise due to close strong today at a new higher close again above the 200 WMA, though re-testing the 200 WMA for a third week around $23K remains likely if price consolidates further.
 

While still remaining bullish short to mid-term now $24K resistance levels have been broken, I'm remaining sceptical of the breakout that lacks volume and price confirmation. With the pattern of early in the week corrections before higher prices in recent weeks, I'm inclined to think a correction back to $23K support levels and 200 WMA before higher prices is in order. Unfortunately this would likely negative the break-out of the ascending triangle and further confirm a bearish rising wedge pattern, therefore re-testing the main accumulation zone between $21K and $22K can't be ruled out at this point if $23K is lost as support.

In summary, despite only really being bullish these past two weeks since the 200 WMA has been reclaimed, for the first time this month I see an argument for a deeper price correction around ~15% to $21K to $22K accumulation zone, if critical support is broken. Despite this, I still think price will rebound to upside relatively quickly finding support from the accumulation zone as well as 50 Day MA.

Despite the doji reversal candle on Thursday with price following through to the downside, yesterday closed at the highest price in 2 months, most notably above $24K, after finding support from just above the local accumulation zone. While this has yet to confirm a break-out to higher levels, price is looking bullish again short-term even without much volume during the weekend period.



With price finding support from the 20 MA on the 4hr, and all it's MAs rising in bullish formation, the short-term time-frame is equally as bullish as the daily chart. Support remains the same around $23K accumulation zone (volume point of control) where the current support trend-line lies, as price is now attempting to confirm a break-out of the ascending triangle with a +20% target to the upside to around $29K.



With the weekly chart due to close it's third consecutive week above the 200 WMA (~$23K), the immediate target next week would be the 20 Week MA that is fast declining and will be priced around $28K, though based on previous bear market comparisons, I'm not expecting this to act as strong resistance, but more so slow down the price from immediately moving higher with some consolidation.


 
Many saw continued rejection from $24K levels as bearish for some strange reason, but after 4 rejections, it seems price has finally broken through this resistance level as it became weaker over the past few weeks. While in the short-term price has formed a double top around $24.9K, as sellers front-run $25K, this simply (at best) gives another dip buying opportunity before further upside it seems.

Looking at the daily chart first, as appears more relevant, price was again rejected by $24K with a doji reversal candle and has returned to the $22K to $24K trading range. As can be seen by previous doji reversal candles, this suggests continued correction on this time-frame to support. At the moment this is around $23K where the volume point of control lies, the 21 Day MA as well as a support trend-line. While previous corrections have been significantly deeper (-14%), there has additionally been a trend in recent weeks of these corrections becoming shallower and more sideways rather than downwards.



Zooming out on this time-frame, the bullish argument is far from lost if $23K fails to continue to hold as support. The 50 Day MA continues to rise, now at $21,840, while significant volume support remains in the $20K to $22K range with long-term volume point of control at $20,850. While not yet expecting these lower levels to be tested, failure to hold $23K would merely mean a pause of immediate bullish momentum, rather than continued bearish momentum. The measured move target for a break-out to the upside of this bullish ascending triangle remains +20% to around $30K, despite not many believing this is possible.




On the 4hr chart, things looks similar but slightly more bullish as price remains above all it's short and long-term MAs (20/50/200) as they continue to rise in bullish formation. However based on the doji reversal candle yesterday, I think price will struggle to hold the immediate bullish momentum and a continued correction to support is much more likely. Holding $24K as new support would be very bullish however.

Quick heads up on the 4hr. The volume point of control (local accumulation zone) has now shifted from around $21K (where price previously found support) to $23K (more recent support) after bulls spent the past two weeks defending the 200 WMA around this level. While there has still been more volume between $20K and $22K (long-term accumulation zone) than $22K to $24K trading range, any quick dips will very likely continue to be defended around this level. If this support is tested again, this would additionally continue to confirm the bullish ascending triangle with a 20% measured move to the upside with the target of approximately $30K.



There's therefore a good reason why bulls in the short to mid-term are feeling bulish, even if remain bearish long-term, due to still being in a bear market. As price continues to knock at the $24K door and wicks above the previous high, the bulls remain fully in control on this time-frame as the dead cat bounce to higher levels looks imminent. My gut feeling is telling me there will be a bit more consolidation before the break-out around $23K, but this is simply based on the amount of consolidation that price has already seen for the past 2 months, and isn't really based on any logic or reason other than what we've become accustomed to seeing.

At some point soon enough the consolidation will be over and the break-out towards $30K will eventually take place. Might be fast, or might be similar to the stepping stones price has taken so far.

Big bounce on the 4hr today with decent volume. Despite anticipating some further consolidation in the short-term, price bounced back to the upside swiftly from the 200 WMA continuing to act as support. MAs have returned to fully bullish formation on this time-frame as price now tests $24K resistance for the 4th time. If it doesn't break this time around, the support remains the same around $23K.



The daily chart looks just as bullish as the 4hr in the mid-term. Price again found support from the 20 Day MA that is rising again, while the 50 Day MA continues to rise now priced at $21.8K. Failing to hold $23K as support would likely see the eventual re-test of $22K, but otherwise the volume gap between $24K and $28K remains the same and looks like it will soon be filled, while $20K to $22K remains strong support.



While many are still waiting for rejection from $25K and much lower prices to buy the dip, it's becoming apparent that a significant correction may not occur until $30K resistance level is tested if $25K is broken to the upside. With price finding support for the 3rd week in a row from the 200 WMA, it seems longer-term investors aren't willing to wait around for a dip that may or may not occur.

Price on the 4hr has returned to $23K short-term accumulation-distribution level, so remaining neutral in the short-term in order to see what direction price takes and whether this support holds while keep an eye on the rising 200 MA around $22.3K. The structure looks very similar to last weeks consolidation, that of being in a trading range of $22K to $24K, suggesting further consolidation to come.




With short-term and mid-term MAs (20 & 50) beginning to flatten out but in bullish formation, the daily chart remains relatively neutral in the immediate term with a bullish bias as price remains above the 50 Day MA at $21.7K. After failed continuation of bullish momentum early in the week, this week may well be another (boring) week of consolidation, rather than continued upside or re-tests of $24K.



As stated before, I'm not seeing any bearish signs with price above $22K given the support that has been built in the $20K to $22K accumulation zone, but otherwise not ruling out a fake-out below $22K towards $21K (even $20K) that would likely be swiftly bought up. I'm not seeing any immediate price trajectory in the short to mid-term apart from consolidation and testing support levels.

Having touchpad trouble so no charts for a while  

I otherwise remain bullish above $22K and otherwise think $23K levels is likely to hold as support this week, even if temporarily lost in the coming days. Some selling again from $24K resistance level that's unsurprising and not really that concerning with price make higher highs, even though it'd be more bullish to be consolidating around these prices. With the current horizontal resistance being confirmed, it'd be a great time to form a bullish ascending triangle with a third support point around current prices, this would then have a nice 4-5% measured move target to aim for.

Price otherwise made a lower high yesterday which is bearish, but as resistance weakens I'm not putting too much thought into short-term bearish outcomes.

In order to cover this 1hr symmetrical triangle, price met the bullish target of $24K relatively quickly after the weekly close, confirming that the bulls are still in control in short to mid-term time-frames.




With another bullish close above the 200 WMA for the second consecutive week, the 4hr chart has now returned to fully bullish (MAs in bullish formation and rising). Key support has been moved up from $22K to $23K where the 50 MA lies as well as new dense volume trading area, now considered accumulation as price remains above it. As price re-tests $24K for the third time, this will either be the moment for a break-out to higher prices or otherwise a pull-back to support at $23K. Given recent early week price movements recently, a pull-back to re-confirm as support is far from out the question, as has been the norm.



On the daily chart, price found support from the 20 Day MA ($23K) after a pull-back, for the first time since March. The 50 Day MA continues to rise, now priced at $21.6K. The more $24K resistance level is tested, the weaker this resistance becomes, therefore a break-out to higher levels is becoming imminent, even if a correction back to the 20 Day MA comes first, as in the mid-term price remains bullish.




For the 6th consecutive week now, price has printed a bullish weekly close, of continuation or consolidation. Despite the 0.5% move to the downside, last week was one of bullish consolidation as price rallied 3.5% from the lows, confirming $23K levels as support (as well as the 200 WMA). With the RSI at 36.5, still in bearish territory, there remains a lot of room to the upside, especially given the large volume gap overhead.



In summary, there is a good reason for bullish sentiment in the market right now, as the 4hr returns to fully bullish, the daily chart is bullish in the mid-term (above short and mid-term MAs that are rising) and the weekly chart is shedding it's bearish bias since the 200 Week MA has been reclaimed, with a lot of room to the upside. This is why there has been good reason to be bullish in the short to mid-term in recent weeks as price continues to move higher, hence I'm remaining bullish until significant resistance levels are reached such as $30K to $40K prices. Until then, the trend is your friend.

Quick 1hr view for the day, price has been consolidating in form of symmetrical triangle (neutral/continuation) for the past few days that looks like it's due to break already, also can be seen as a diamond pattern.



The measured move target is roughly $22K or $24K depending on the direction. With price currently above the volume point of control around $23K, as well as 200 WMA at $22.9K, it looks to favour the bulls, though the continuation looks to favour the bears (continued correction). With price in a tight trading range of $22.5K to $23.5K for the past week, a break of this range would likely see price continue in the direction it breaks.

As price continue to consolidate today currently above the 20 Day MA, this moving average has since flattened out indicating that bullish momentum in the short-term has subsided, more or less confirming the consolidation in recent days. While many wait for a weekly close above or below the 200 WMA, the trend remains bullish as bears fail to push prices below $23K towards the rising 50 Day MA at $21.5K.




Support from the 200 MA is now above $22K, so any quick dips to this level will likely be bought up quickly after confirming the accumulation range of $20K to $22K. For example if price closes just below the 200 WMA and bears attempt to push prices lower. Another close above the 200 WMA this week would likely see further upside, or at least a re-test of $24K, after a week of bullish consolidation.




As a reminder, there remains a big volume gap between $24K and $28.4K, while the 20 Week MA will be priced at $29.1K next week. Another bullish close above the 200 WMA could certainly see this gap filled quickly as price retraces the capitulation from $30K levels down to $20K. This would therefore return price to a denser trading range between $30K and $40K, that realistically remains a distribution level.



It's also possible price continues to consolidate between $22K and $24K in the coming weeks before testing the 20 WMA at lower prices, similar to the 2019 rounding bottom, that would be just as bullish for price, if not more bullish in order to build more bullish momentum. Based on this MAs current trajectory it would take around a month before reaching $24K levels.

Usually don't bother with an update more than once per day, but one thing I noticed is this correction is considerably different from the previous 3 so far. The following are the three previous corrections over-layed to the current correction from $24.6K. Note how the previous 3 were all very similar at approximately -14% taking between 6 to 9 days. It's now been more than 10 days and bears have failed to take prices more than 10% lower.



I also usually wouldn't consider comparing this as that relevant, but based on how similar the previous 3 corrections were and how this one is considerably different, it does appear quite relevant. It's also possible that this correction will take longer, as the most recent one was 9 days, and prior to that 7.5 and 6, so there is an argument for corrections taking longer and reaching similar targets of -14%, but I'm not convinced.

As notable, the break to $22.5K should have meant that price went lower, to $22K support, but instead after a new 4hr low close, price swiftly rallied back above the 200 WMA. This is why despite remaining neutral in the short-term during this bullish consolidation period, I am none the less leaning bullish, especially if the week can close above the 200 WMA again for a second consecutive week.

Here is otherwise why sentiment outlook for anyone interested. Not intended to be accurate, but more reflective of past and future market sentiment for July/August:

Again, not much as changed in the past few days as price continues to consolidate. Hence remaining neutral at $23K level in the short-term, while the consolidation remains bullish as the 50 Day MA continues to rise. Finding further support from the 21 Day MA at $23K could otherwise help provide further upside momentum, but that's all I see right now (not a lot). The weekly close should provide better insight.




With the 200 MA now priced at $21,950, this makes the $22K support level stronger after the recent re-test of this MA at $21.1K. It seems likely that a break above $23.5K will generate a re-test of $24K, since the former has already been tested twice already so this resistance is weakening. Likewise, a break below $22.5K will likely create a re-test of $22K support, hence price remains range bound between $22K to $24K.




The following levels are the ones I'm continuing to watch for confirmation of support:

After printing a 7th red candle in a row, price rallied back to it's support level but is still struggling to reclaim the weekly open around $23.3K, while the consolidation remains bullish due to the rising 50 Day MA.


Despite a more convincing break below $23K support level, price has since rallied back to it after finding support around last weeks opening price around $22.5K, hence not much has changed.




On the 4hr chart, price has since re-tested both of these levels on the 4hr chart but is failing to reclaim them due to significant selling pressure as trading volume builds in the $23K range. With the 200 MA now priced close to $21.9K and continuing to rise, similar to the daily chart the correction remains bullish even if re-testing $22K support is becoming more likely in the short-term.



On the weekly scale, price has re-tested it's first two support levels finding buyers at both these prices which is a promising sign, even if resistance remains relatively strong at higher prices.


While initially anticipating bullish continuation this week, it's starting to look like a week for bullish consolidation instead, as buyers attempt to defend the 200 WMA instead.

Not much has changed today with price continuing to re-test around the 200 WMA ($22,875) this week. After 6 days of red candles on the daily time-frame price could otherwise be due a turn-around with yesterday price printing a gravestone doji reversal candle, that although shows buying pressure is being rejected at higher levels, a reversal of the short-term downtrend could come next.





After continued rejection from the weekly open at $23.3K, price is struggling to bounce from current support levels after failing to hold the 50 MA as support. Despite the daily chart indicating there could be a reversal back to the upside, the 4hr chart is starting to look bearish as the 200 WMA support level begins to weaken. Hence the need to remain neutral at current levels as price chooses a direction to take.





With the 50 Day MA ($21.3K) now beginning to rise, price action above this level remains bullish in the mid-term, even if the 200 WMA is lost as support this week. As a reminder this daily MA is generally considered a trend momentum indicator, therefore after flattening out and losing it's bearish bias (trending downwards), this indicator now favours the bulls as price remains above it.

With buyers continuing to step in at the 200 WMA today, price is attempting to reclaim the weekly open at $23.3K, while otherwise attempting to find support from the 21 Day MA. I'm remaining relatively neutral short-term here as $24K has yet to breached for a third time while $23K has yet to be convincingly broken to the downside. Regardless of this, the trend remains bullish on the daily chart with room to the upside.




The 4hr chart is painting a similar picture of the daily, that of being bullish after reclaiming the 50 MA. Price is now back above all it's MAs so it's difficult to be bearish at this level, but additionally without reclaiming $24K it's also difficult to be fully bullish that price will continue to the upside. Either way the 200 MA continues to rise and will soon be priced around the $22K level in order to act as strong support if necessary.




Whether price corrects further towards $22K or breaks through $24K again remains to be seen, but otherwise I remain bullish for the week as the bearish momentum has passed for now.

Despite some buyers already stepping in at the 200WMA, price continues to decline today putting $22K as the next realistic level of support (previous resistance and 50 month MA). With the 50 Day MA now priced at $21.3K and flattened out, after initially acting as resistance, price could return to this level to confirm it as support, which in turn would further confirm a trend reversal, similar to the 2019 rounding bottom. While this suggests the consolidation could take longer than expected if it occurs, the 50 Day MA has already failed to act as strong resistance, suggesting the longer-term bearish trend has already lost momentum.




With price struggling to hold the 50 MA as support on the 4hr, a correction towards the rising and therefore bullish 200 MA currently priced at $21.5K becomes more likely. With this long-term MA already confirmed as support last week, I'm not expecting price to return to it for some time, even with the daily chart suggesting a re-test of the 50 Day MA could be on the table around similar levels.




Despite the continued correction this week so far, similar to last week, I'm still anticipating bullish continuation to the upside for the week now the RSI has left oversold conditions and 200 WMA initially reclaimed. With this weeks open currently priced at $23.3K and a correction already taking place so far, it's likely price will find buyers above this level without needing to return to $24K (as it would create a bullish wick to the downside).


Key support levels remain the same, although it'd only be fair to add the neutral trending 50 Day MA, instead of assuming that (another) break below $22K will invalidate the current bull trend:

50 Day MA @ $21,310

With price already reaching $22,950 today, $75 from the 200 WMA lies ($22,875), this does already look like a "far enough correction", especially after yesterday's weekly and monthly close. Tomorrow the 50 Day MA will begin rising again for the first time since March before the +20% move to $48K, confirming a trend reversal in the mid-term with a target of the 200 Day MA currently priced at $34K but fast declining.




On the 4hr, price is now finding some buyers close to the 50 MA ($22,850). Reclaiming as well as re-testing $24K could well see the immediate continuation of bullish momentum. Otherwise the lower levels of support will likely be re-tested if reclaiming $24K fails, approximately around $22.5K (last weeks opening price) as well as previous resistance level $22K where the 50 Month MA is based.




Yesterday's weekly close at $23.3K, crucially back above the 200 WMA, is certainly bullish. Despite the week only closing +3%, price otherwise rallied +13% from the weekly lows. With a correction already taking prices down to re-test close to the 200 WMA just below $23K, this week looks set for bullish continuation to the upside with further confirmation of a low being formed. After closing 6 weekly candles below the 200 WMA, it could take a similar amount of time to establish this important MA as support, but in previous bear markets the confirmation of support usually occurs much faster.




With first level of support now more or less tested, there could be more levels to re-test this week or next if resistance around $24K remains strong.

Yesterday printed another doji reversal candle, confirming selling pressure above $24K and therefore increasing the likelihood of a correction to $22K to $23K levels. While the RSI has returned to the border of bullish territory from neutral, the 50 Day MA is beginning to flatten out and will start rising in the next few days (if price remains above it), suggesting a more mid-term trend reversal is underway.




Buyers have continued to defend $23.5K after rejection from $24.6K. Despite the 4hr RSI cooling off to neutral territory, the current support level looks relatively weak unless price can reclaim $24K. The trend remains bullish with the 50 & 200 MAs rising and in bullish formation, but there is some bearish divergence on shorter time-frames, additionally suggesting a pull-back is increasingly likely.




Price remains at +5% for the week and up 15% from the lows, as well as crucially above the 200 Week MA at $22.8K. A close today above this level would likely signal continuation of bullish momentum, even if first a dip to $22K to $23K levels at the start or the week remains likely, in order to re-confirm the 200 WMA as well as possibly the 50 Month MA as support, which would increase bullish confidence.

Key support levels to watch for a pull-back next week will be the following:

200 Week MA @ $22,880 (+$85)
Weekly open @ $22,580
50 Month MA @ $21,990 (+$350)

After printing a doji reversal candle yesterday price continues to re-test $24K+ today highlighting strength in the current rally, despite also the lack of correction. With the market entering the weekend, it seems an unlikely time for a breakout to the upside (due to lack of volume), but dip buying remains likely with the weekly open at $22.5K and 200 WMA at $22.8K, as the week looks likely to close above these levels.




Despite anticipating a short-term correction in order for price to cool off, the 4hr today remains at higher levels so far as buyers have stepped in at $23.5K, while price otherwise consolidates sideways.


The moving averages (50 & 200) have otherwise started increasing again, again confirming the bullish momentum in play, with support now likely to be found around $22.6K (50 MA).



With the week due to close tomorrow, as well as the month, price remains strong with at present a +7% weekly after a 17% rally from recent lows. Despite anticipating a 10-20% weekly candle earlier in the week, price has none the less increased by 10-20% this week. Tomorrow therefore looks likely to reclaim the 200 Week MA ($22.8K) as well as the 50 Month MA ($21,650), in order to further confirm a trend reversal.


The short-term target for a continued to break-out as well as trend reversal would initially be around $30K levels, where previous volume from the past 18 months is based, as well as the 21 Month MA that is fast declining to these levels. While likely to act as strong resistance (after being strong support), it may not hold as resistance for long if the bullish momentum continues.

Yesterday price closed at $23,850, the highest level since the capitulation on June 13th. As previously referenced, this rally is different than previous ones as RSI re-tests bullish territory. However the 50 Day MA continues to decline and will continue to do so for the next few days, so re-testing this level in the coming days (around $21.5K to $22K) can't be ruled out, despite the bullish rally.




The RSI is now testing overbought territory on the 4hr as price begins to face selling pressure after creating a higher high, as well as likely profit taking from shorter-term traders.


With the 50 MA around $22.5K and 200 WMA at $22.8K, this range could act as support for a quick correction in price, in order to additionally create another higher low.




Despite considerations for a correction on shorter time-frames in order for price to cool off, this could well be short lived as price remains +5% on the weekly chart after creating a bullish wick to the downside. The weekly open is otherwise at $22.5K, similar to the 50 MA on the 4hr, so there is a strong reason why price would find support from this price level, as well as the 200 WMA that could now begin to act as support.



It's worth noting that the month will also come to close at the end of the week, and price remains above the 50 Month MA at $21,640.

Price closed yesterday back above $22K as now the 21 & 50 Day MA are bull-crossing, thus confirming $20.8K volume point of control as support as well as V-shaped recovery fractal. There is now an argument for "this rally is different" after the short & mid-term MAs have crossed bullish, as this hasn't been seen since $40K levels. The target would therefore be a re-test of the 200 Day MA currently around $34K.




On the 4hr price remains bullish. The RSI has returned to bullish territory >60 but not yet oversold, so plenty of room to the upside. There has been some selling / profit taking around $23K previous resistance level, but so far today price remains strong after a +5% high volume candle yesterday. The MAs remain relatively flat indicating some consolidation could come before further upside, though bulls remain in control.




As previously anticipated after RSI left oversold conditions, the weekly chart is now printing a bullish wick showing buying pressure at lower levels, while also attempting to follow through on last weeks bullish momentum. With the third re-test of 200 WMA, this resistance level is becoming weaker as bulls continue to buy dips below this price ($22.8K).



Naturally a close this week back above the 200 WMA, or even closing above weekly open of $22.5K, would likely signal further upside in the coming weeks as the trend begins to turn around from bearish to bullish.

On the Daily chart, price found buyers below $21K, around the 8 month long volume point of control as anticipated, while the 21 & 50 MA are due to cross bullish in the coming days. With these MAs at $21.5K and $21.8K, closing back above $22K would paint much more of a bullish picture prior to the previous rally above these levels, as price would be above both these MAs as they cross bullish.

 


On the 4hr price is so far finding support above the 200 MA at $20.9K (trending bullish) after the bull-cross of the 50 & 200 MAs, even if far from convincing yet. Overall, while many believed breaking below $22K would invalidate any short-term bullish momentum, this time-frame remains relatively bullish finding support from it's long-term MA, as well as from RSI oversold conditions, again at higher levels.




With the previous bear flag structure invalidated after price broke through $23K resistance, and now attempting to form a higher low around $21K while continuing to follow the corrective fractal from late June, a re-test of resistance levels around $23K to $24K looks increasingly likely if support can hold. Failure to reclaim $22K threatens to turn it back into resistance, but so far the bulls have the upper hand.

Looking at the Daily chart to begin with, after the previously referenced fractal played out, price is now at the volume point of control around $20,850, where price will need to find support in order to continue trending back to the upside. Falling below the 21 & 50 MAs on this time-frame is undoubtedly bearish after rejection from higher prices, however the 4hr is well positioned to provide some assistance in finding support.



On the 4hr price is at the 200 MA that has begun trending upwards in bullish formation. Failure to hold this support will increase the chances of a re-test of $20K. Personally, I see the likelihood of price finding support around this level based on the same fractal from late June as price re-tests oversold conditions on this time-frame. There are also longer-term bullish factors  in the background to consider here.



As a reminder of why I think level is likely to act as support, despite the correction or short-term trend reversal currently occuring:


The Weekly RSI otherwise remains outside of oversold territory with room to the downside in order to re-test this level (30) as support, likely around $20K. Despite the 7.5% move to the downside this week so far, I remain bullish, as today is only Tuesday and within 5 days price can relatively easily close back weekly open of $22.5K (creating a bullish wick) based on current fractal pattern in play.

Price closed the week above $22K, confirming a weekly close on the RSI outside of oversold territory. Despite failing to hold the 50 MA as support on the 4hr, as well as being unable to close the the week above the 200 WMA (now at $22,785), price has established a short-term bull flag with a target of around $28K (flat poll measured move) if it breaks to the upside.




Not much has changed on the Daily chart as price continues to trend downwards along the 50 Day MA. Breaking down below $22K (current prices) increases the chances of a re-test of $20,850 volume point of control, as part of previous fractal. The Daily is looking somewhat bearish, however the 4hr remains relatively bullish while the weekly chart is shedding it's bearish bias.




Despite rejection from closing above the 200 WMA (by $115), I'm still expecting bullish continuation this week now that price has already wicked 6% above this moving average, even if a short-term pull-back comes first. The week none the less closed bullish with +8.6%, the highest weekly candle since March. I think current or coming dip will be for buyers, not for sellers, now that price has confirmed some strength.

Price is currently finding some support from $22K and re-testing the 200 WMA. Closing the week above this level would be bullish for a few different reasons, namely the Weekly RSI.




Price continues to follow the 50 Day MA downwards closing $60 below this moving average yesterday. I see increasing possibility for a re-test of $20.8K strong support after 4 consecutive red candles, based on a a fractal move from late June, but closing the day above $22K would make this less likely based on the weekly chart. Moving back above $23.8K (lower high) would likely confirm the uptrend remains in tact.




With the Weekly RSI due to close outside of oversold territory this week (bucket list criteria for a Bitcoin low) this would likely generate enough confidence for reclaiming the 200 WMA next week (if not also this week):



The weekly candle is currently at +9%, otherwise the biggest weekly increase since March (4 months ago), slightly more than early July's +8% move from $19K lows. A bullish weekly close could lead to another week of consolidation like in mid-July, but otherwise with RSI leaving oversold conditions and moving above the 200 WMA I see much more liklihood of bullish continuation with a 10%+ candle in order to re-test $25K.



In recent weeks price has otherwise increased by almost 30% on low volume. With the capitulation somewhat considered in the past, a return of significant volume could see prices increase considerably more than just 10% in a week if the low is considered to be in. Don't be surprised to see a 20% move all the way up to $28K in one go.

Despite maintaining higher levels in recent days, price is now testing $22.1K where the 50 MA lies on the 4hr. Price will need to find support around this level or risk falling back down to the 200 MA around $20.8K. Both MAs are fortunately rising in bullish formation (upwards), though the 50 MA has failed to act as support in recent months. Failing that, a re-test of $20K support becomes the bearish alternative.




Price closed again above the 50 Day MA but otherwise continues to trend downwards as it now threatens to close below. While the most volume traded since $69K high (past 8 months) has now been in the $20K to $22K range as price remains above this level, failing to find support from here would signal bearish continuation. The point of volume control is currently at $20,850, an important level to watch.




With the Weekly candle again facing rejection from the 200 WMA, a re-test of volume support on this time frame becomes more likely, or otherwise the weekly open around $20.8K. Unlike the Daily chart, support remains around $18K to $20K based on 20 months of trading, while the RSI still intends to close outside of oversold territory (currently at 32.5) for bullish setup next week if it closes at current levels or >30.



In summary, there is a lot of relevance to $20.8K on various time-frames level: the 200 MA on 4hr, volume point of control for past 8 months, as well as weekly open.

I think your prediction might be right, OP. It looks like it is oversold, and there is some little FOMO building now in some charts.
If bitcoin enters a bull market now, then we might have a very different cycle here.

So far price has been holding $23K for the third day now, notably finding support from $22.5K previous higher high. Price has now started to find more buyers than sellers below the 200 WMA ($22.7K) and hasn't even retested volume support around $21K to $22K, showing short-term bullish strength and increased confidence in the market, despite initial rejection from >$24K.




Price has now closed 3 consecutive daily candles above the bearish trending 50 Day MA (currentl $22.5K), providing far less resistance than expected, while the RSI flirts with bullish territory. A break back above $24K would likely see the re-test of $30K levels in the coming days or weeks, based on the considerable trading volume gap beween $24K and $28.5K. Otherwise in the short-term, a quick re-test of support if bulls fail.



As the market enters the weekend, the week otherwise remains strong maintaining a 13% gain. Despite bearish news of Tesla selling their Bitcoin in Q2, price reacted with a 0.31% loss for the today as traders bought the dip. This is now the second time bearish news hasn't negatively affected price, such as CPI announcement that so far has led to a 20% increase in price.

Despite many still expecting a bullish fake-out, longer-term trend reversal indicators appear to be taking affect and influencing the short-term price action, despite remaining in a bear market.

After price broke through $23K, closing multiple 4hr candle above this level and the bear flag structure, price is now back below $23K. Failure to maintain above $23K currently puts $20.8K level back on the table as support, where the 200 MA has begun trending upwards in bullish formation. The 50 MA around $22K could otherwise act as support in the meantime, though in recent weeks has remained unreliable.




With price attempting to instigate a trend reversal, the Daily chart is now looking more significant. Despite closing a candle above the 50 Day MA ($22.5K), price was swiftly rejected yesterday and unsurprisingly struggling to find support from this bearish trending moving average that instead has acted as resistance for now. As price additionally attempts to break-down below the 200 WMA, it's threatening to confirm it as resistance yet again this week. This means coming back down to volume support becomes more likely after a failed break-out, if $22K support level or the 50 Month MA is unable to hold in the short-term.



Despite a short-term correction looking more likely, the Weekly RSI still remains outside of oversold territory, so even correcting to support would likely close the week slightly bullish by confirming the end to the current capitulation - even if long-term price remains bearish. While this might not be the week for a strong close after a pump early in the week, it should still be a good set up for a break-out next week.

Price has broken through the $23K level and unquestionably looks strong today after breaking through resistance levels, even finding buyers sub $23K on shorter-term time-frames:



More significant to me now is the close above the bearish trending 50 Day MA, suggesting a re-test of the 200 Day MA comes next (currently priced at $35K but declining):



Better yet, neither the 4hr nor Daily RSI are currently oversold, but instead in bullish territory (>60), so there is definitely room for further upside. There could certainly be a quick push to $28K to $30K levels if the bullish momentum continues as volatility remains high, now the bear flag structure has been invalidated and price has made a significantly higher high, as well as highest price in over a month.

Based on the Daily chart, support for a quick pull-back could come around $22K (previous resistance level), or even now the 200 WMA ($22.7K) or 50 Month MA ($21.950). Unlike others, I don't think this is a bull trap or fake-out to the upside, instead I think the bull trap would appear around $30K levels (previous support). For anyone who's been waiting on the sidelines for a trend reversal, this looks like the one.

Despite further rejection from 200 WMA on the 4hr (dotted blue line), price remains surprisingly strong today and is back at the 50 Month MA (dotted purple) after a pull-back close to the mid-level of the bear flag structure. With price now finding buyers under $22K, another attempt to re-test $23K resistance levels looks likely. I still think a correction to around $20.5K support is likely, but for now the rally looks far from over:




Despite expecting price to correct further in the coming days to sub $21K, which could still be the case, price otherwise found support from $21.5K which is promising. It's therefore more than possible that price has already corrected enough within this structure with a sharper pull-back in order to break the resistance level, even if further rejection should still be anticipated based on strong resistance levels.

Zooming out to the daily chart, price is additionally testing the 50 Day MA at $22.9K (purple line) that price hasn't seen since $43K. Since the ATH and downtrend, $20K to $22K has become the highest volume trading area since $42.5K. So with with price remaining above it, there is a good chance of a bounce back to $30K levels, if price can break-out and close above this bearish trending moving average:



It's also worth remembering that while $30K previous support hasn't been tested as new resistance, neither has $38K, due to how aggressively price dropped since these prices. There is however considerable volume between $30K to $40K (most of the volume in the past 18 months by looks of it), so re-testing $38K previous support as new resistance won't be as easy as bouncing back to $30K.



With volatility at it's highest level in over a year, since May 2021 an aggressive move to the upside to $40K to $48K, similar to 2019, can't be ruled out at this stage. The 0.618 fib retracement level from $69K to $17.6K is currently at $49.5K, so a move back to this price as a "dead cat bounce within a bear market" would be the equivalent to 2019's $3.2K to $14K, if recent history repeats itself.

I normally don't do two posts in a day, but now price has reached the 200 Week MA ($22.7K), very close to the resistance trend-line, it seems relevant to post a small update:



This currently looks like the place for a pull-back based on the bear flag fractal after reaching $22,777 (target being $23K). There is already some selling pressure on smaller time-frames from the 200 WMA that notably has acted as resistance twice before. Meanwhile the 4hr RSI is struggling to maintain oversold conditions. Price otherwise pumped 9.5% today, so it'd be hardly surprising to see a correction at resistance:



The positive? Hope is far from lost. On the 4hr, the 50 MA has begun to rise (bullish), the 200 MA has flattened out (neutral) after the bull-cross. These both line up nicely with the volume point of control around $20,850 (circled above). Now that there have been three tests of support and three tests of resistance, it provides a good opportunity to break the bear flag if support can be found from $20.5K to $21K:



(This is purely hypothetical, but an example of how price is most likely to find support in order to invalidate the current bear flag structure, as opposed to immediately breaking through resistance)

Failing that, and returning to the support trend-line would increase the chance of support failing as it becomes weaker, as the Weekly RSI returns to oversold conditions. Likewise, another test of the resistance trend-line would increase the chance of it breaking as it becomes weaker. While short-term I see an imminent pull-back, the mid to long-term still provides opportunity for further upside.

(replies to recent posts below)

Despite the week closing in oversold territory again, price rallied shortly after. The fractal to $23K now looks eerily similar to the previous rally to resistance levels:



Price is otherwise back above the 50 Month MA, close to testing the 200 Week MA. While the target remains $23K based on the bear flag structure, price could well find resistance from these long-term MAs already as has been the case twice before with previous short-term rallies. Volume otherwise remains low despite today's pump, suggesting bulls are losing momentum in the short-term.


Despite the rejection last week from RSI leaving oversold condition, price immediately rallied to the upside. The weekly RSI is therefore now attempting to leave oversold conditions for a third consecutive week.



Last week's candle was however a doji-reversal candle, although somewhat unclear whether this implied a reversal from the long-term bearish trend, or reversal from the short-term bullish trend. Given the price following through to the upside today it now looks more like a bearish trend reversal, especially given the long-term time-frame the doji appeared on (hindsight's a beautiful thing):

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Haha thanks.


I can only imagine it'd be very bearish for Bitcoin. It'd effectively mean price capitulated to oversold levels, recovered to probably bearish/neutral territory, and then re-capitulated, similar to what happened with miners.

I wouldn't rule it out either by any means. If price get's back to $25K to $30K levels and is heavily rejected, followed by failing to find support from the 200 Week MA, this could very well happen.


Price is certainly "going against the grain" as it were, rallying after bearish CPI numbers, but otherwise since $19K levels I was anticipating a rally to $23K based on support/resistance levels and current fractal.


It certainly looks like price is currently absorbing bearish news very well right now, which is definitely a start to recovery, as opposed to dropping every-time something bad is announced. Also agree that challenges in Q4 may not have such a bearish effect, if price manages to stay about $17.5K until then. Even if not much higher, it'll show that Bitcoin is remaining resilient.


Thanks, I try my best. Mainly to emphasis what the indicators are suggesting, rather than outright predictions. Especially while Bitcoin remains in a neutral-ish trading range in the shorter-term


Sure, will consider it when I find some time. I only really use volume, RSI and moving averages as core indicators (the basics), but adding in some of the fundamental analysis indicators could be useful. Especially if collating together explanation from others of these indicators. A thread referencing many different user's explaining indicators would be quite useful I imagine.

It looks like (Price is going against speculation) but it will be amazing to see a difference in the price these days.
In my opinion, the price has absorbed all the effects of the expected news, and therefore even if economic challenges occur during the fourth quarter, we will not witness strong corrections.
The whole problem remains in the occurrence of unexpected changes in the economy.



I can hardly hide my admiration for the development in the posts from mere discussions to analysis using technical analysis tools, which is a good thing.

If you have some time, I hope that you will write your own topic^[1], which explains how to analyze technical analysis and choose the appropriate tools.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=39.0

Checking in my current favourite thread in speculation, quite interesting developments over just the last few days, some unexpected rallies -- despite the worse-than-expected news -- leading us to this second consecutive attempt to pull away from the oversold currents.

Am only thinking now what it would mean, if it successfully leaves oversold territory only to return to it again, say, in the next few weeks as that schedule's packed full of expected bearish news (bearing in mind again, pricing in has already happened, but thinking in scenario of worst-than-expected news).

I'm not convinced that's usually the case with the RSI, regardless of time-frame, as 50 is merely part of the neutral level:

<30 Oversold
30-40 Bearish
40-60 Neutral
60-70 Bullish
>70 Overbought

It's more common that once the RSI turns bearish (<40) it get's oversold (<30). Likewise if it turns bullish (>60) it get's overbought (>70). But even this isn't that reliable.

As for Bitcoin's Monthly RSI, it has never been bearish, only neutral at worst like at the moment (41.66 lowest reading). It's not that Bitcoin is different, it's that it has never been in a long-term downtrend. In this context, long-term as in Monthly moving averages trending downwards and price below them. It could obviously happen, but without the RSI turning bearish, there's nothing to suggest that right now.



Generally speaking this is what makes the Monthly RSI for Bitcoin relatively useless while instead the Weekly RSI is much more reliable.

I'm actually monitoring the weekly charts with RSI indicator which obviously had been down to 26 in last month but one thing that somehow reminds me is that if the monthly chart's RSI dive below 50, it almost assured that it could also go below 30. I couldn't be sure but I've read its a golden rule for RSI. Something a trader will have to be prepared that once  the daily chart indicates overbought, it could also dump sooner.

Price has so far avoided rejection from the 50 & 200 MA bull-cross on the 4hr, instead finding support from volume point of control, unlike in early June when price was unable to sustain above the 200 MA (as circled):



The bear flag fractal remains in tact as price continues to move towards the upper bound of the trading channel while also attempting to leave dense trading volume area between $20K and $21.3K [correction], generally considered short-term resistance. Rejection from current price levels would confirm a lower high on this time-frame, confirming resistance from higher levels.

A continuation to the upside would otherwise make re-testing $23K much more likely, even if getting rejected from this level (where the 50 Day MA) remains highly likely.


The Weekly RSI is again attempting to leave oversold conditions for the second consecutive week (currently at 30.03) as the week turns positive. Therefore closing today (end of week) >30 could certainly see some follow through as has been the case in previous bear market bottoms of 2015 and 2018. Based on past price action, the RSI is unlikely to return to oversold conditions once it has left this territory.



Getting rejected from leaving oversold conditions for a second consecutive week would otherwise be considered bearish and would likely lead to a continuation of downward price action, showing that patient sellers are taking advantage of selling any dead cat bounces so as to avoid selling into long-term oversold conditions. To put it simply: without leaving oversold conditions, price is unable to recover, only consolidate at best.

Currently seeing some healthy consolidation after reaching the mid-level of the trading channel. Price remains within the bear flag fractal targeting $23K in the near term (before end of week ideally) and trying to find support from volume point of control. With the 50 & 200 MAs on the 4hr as well as 1hr crossing, bulls are trying to maintain momentum, however similar to early June both these 4hr MAs are still trending downwards (bearish) even with a bull-cross. Either way, it's been a month of sideways price action between $18K and $22K, so price is due a break-out out of the current trading range in one direction or another.



While there generally are enough bullish factors for a relief rally, such as 3 Day RSI (again) finally leaving oversold conditions, Pi Cycle Indicator signalling a bottom (that correctly called the top in April 2021), overall there still remains a lack of confluence with miners continuing to capitulate. To say further confirmation is needed to call even a local bottom would be an understatement, as price remains within a bear flag targeting $12.5K.

As Bitcoin continues to trend higher after reclaiming $20K, price is now at the equivalent level of $31K at the beginning of June based on moving averages on the 4hr (circled). Price is attempting to rise above the downward sloping (bearish trending) 200MA (blue line) while the 50MA crosses above in a bullish manner (purple line). This could very much be the point of rejection, or break-out to higher highs.



Price is otherwise at the mid-level of the bear flag now, after additionally reclaiming the volume point of control from the past 6 weeks. While the short-term target remains $23K as part of a bear flag structure, this would likely also line-up with the Weekly RSI attempting to leave oversold conditions again where price is likely to see resistance, after already facing rejection last week.



If price can get to $23K and hold this level (or above) with the RSI closing the week out of oversold territory, it could be very bullish setup for however. With Bitcoin rallying since the "bearish" CPI news, this increases the chances of a decoupling from traditional markets and the overall bearish macro-economic sentiment. Although it seems unlikely, this is currently the reality of the situation so far.

I don't think that's possible to tell right now. To some degree it depends on when it happens, how long it takes to get there, macro-economic factors, any fundamentals that may be relevant.

If you look at recent bottoms:

• In March 2020 price capitulated -50% within a week (largely based on liquidations) and there was more of a V-shaped recovery only taking 6 weeks
• In January 2015 at the final end of capitulation with a similar -50% drop, price recovered half of the drop the same week before trading sideways for approximately 10 months
• In November 2018 with a -50% drop taking mainly two weeks, there was more of a rounding bottom that took a few months

What do all of these bottoms have in common? Not a lot in reality, they were each unique in their own way and considerably different. The only correlation is that a -80+% correlation twice previously led to at least a years worth of consolidation, even if price can retrace most of the bear market during that period (like in 2019). It's possible that if price drops to $12K it could be back at $24K within a few weeks, likewise it could trade between $12K and $24K for up to a year. There could be a rounding bottom for a few months before price returns to $45K, or something completely different (probably this option imo).

So when the only correlation is that each bottom has been different in it's structure as well as time, then it's probably best to expect something different this time around. I also wouldn't put too much faith into a bear flag target, the odds of it reaching this target isn't that high (around 60-70% maybe). It does line-up with volume support and around a -82% correction overall, but generally speaking breaking down from a bear flag is more relevant as a bearish continuation pattern, and therefore expecting a considerable lower low, as opposed to any accurate target that comes from it.

If this is confirmed and the price returns to a target around 12.5 thousand dollars, what is your analysis of what will happen?

Will it be very fast and return to these levels again (Big V shape,) or will we remain at that level for several months, especially since the news of the recession has begun to spread, which may affect demand and its impact on miners “if the price falls”

Time to re-test resistance around $23K? Price has so far been holding $19K and and already tested $20K levels (volume point of control) prior to getting short-term rejection:



The upwards trending support has now been tested 3 times, while the upwards sloping resistance only twice so far in-between support tests. While the likelihood would be rejection from $23K levels (where the 200WMA is priced) based on the bear flag that's currently forming, a re-test of resistance to further confirm such a bear flag is looking increasingly likely as price consolidates relatively sideways.


Despite bearish CPI news yesterday, price notably increased 4.75% on the day, suggesting that the bearish news had already been priced in. The panic causing a -5% drop when the news arrived so far only shows that it was a sell the rumour event, as opposed to sell the news event. That said, further rejection from $20K levels and breaking $19K levels could lead to much lower prices and confirmation of a bear flag break-down.

Nothing is 100%, any decent analyst knows this. Same as fundamentals reflecting immediate short-term price or the macro economic environment directing long-term price. While the correlation between the bearish economic overall bearish sentiment is dragging Bitcoin's price down, you can't rely on this 100% of the time. At some point the correlation will break, like we've seen time and time again.


Not true, there is no 100% guarantee that Bitcoin "will keep dipping". This is common mistake that speculators make, such as yourself in this case, that certain price movements "will happen", instead of "most likely" to happen. I personally find it ironic that speculators will claim TA is not 100%, but then use another form of analysis will provide 100% certainty that price will go up or down.


The RSI on the Weekly is merely mimicking the overall bearish sentiment, that of price strength struggling to leave oversold conditions, highlighting considerable weakness. This is exactly what you'd expect to see if there was considerable bearish sentiment in the market. Likewise recent short-term analysis has been aligned with the overall bearish macro economic environment, that of anticipating price failing to break out higher and instead falling lower.

As a trader, its not about controlling price, it's about analysing what the most likely direction is going to be. As you said, TA, as well as other forms of analysis, are all forms of speculation at the end of the day.

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As for current price in the short-term, it appears to be forming a bear flag, completely negating any bullish sentiment from the break-out of symmetrical triangle, that ultimately failed:



After breaking $20K we naturally came back down to the $19K support levels where there is some volume support. More relevantly, if this is a bear flag and price breaks local support, the target would be around $12.5K if it plays out, very much the bearish target many have had their eyes on for sometime now. Price will need to reclaim $20K levels relatively quickly to avoid falling considerably lower.



Furthermore, after failing to leave oversold conditions on the Weekly, as well as getting rejected from the 200WMA, price has since fallen -6% indicating some follow through after rejection, as opposed to consolidation at higher levels. There is really nothing bullish I can see right now without $19K levels holding as support and $20K being reclaimed, despite how oversold price already is.

You need to realize that technical analysis is never 100%. It doesn’t take into account what is going on with the global markets.

If we keep getting high inflation every month then we will keep dipping and there is no technicals on CPI. It’s based on factors that traders can’t control. Hence why it’s called speculation because nobody knows what will happen. If it was easy such as using some RSI then everybody would be millionaires.

Looks like the -4.5% target has been met from breaking down from the short-term (1hr) descending triangle to previous resistance trend-line after reaching $20,250:



Price is now at the volume point of control on the 4hr chart, where price needs to find buyers to continue higher and avoiding dropping to $19K support:




As anticipated, the Weekly RSI was rejected from leaving oversold conditions showing lack of confidence in the market, as well as initial rejection from the 200WMA.



Ideally price can still find support from previous break-out level, otherwise will continue to be in a range of $19K to $22K without much immediate direction.

I think we had a little pump of that yesterday when the price jumped to around above $22k  but today dropped back. Well we never know where the buttom is yet but probably the momentum for bear volatility could be cooling down. Hopefully this week may have more bull volatility if the overbought is anything to work with.

The chart I was using was Coinbase, not Binance. I'm aware of the wash-trading that occurred there. Hence there was still a spike in volume on the 4hr, even if not enormous amounts of volume.




Now it looks like Bitcoin is in a short-term descending triangle since breaking out of the symmetrical triangle, with a target of $20K if it plays out, to the previous resistance trend-line. This would no doubt also return the Weekly RSI back to oversold conditions if it plays out. With news of MtGox coins redistributed next month it seems there could be some panic hitting the market very soon...

MACD on 3 Day chart is currently bull-crossing, not seen since February, but won't confirm for another day and a half:

Looks like all this volume spike on 4h candle was only a wash-trading made because of the binance promotion - Binance Launches Zero-Fee Bitcoin Trading.

CZ about the volume spike:

"Think this is due to zero fees and people trying to gain VIP tiers. We will exclude Btc trading from VIP calculations. Remove all incentives to wash trade. Announcement with details coming shortly."
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1545451961222324225

But it does not change the fact that bitcoin was never as oversold as it is now.

This has been discussed at the price of below $20k, and the oversold scenario changes significantly as we’ve seen a small pump with a huge volume, this might be a confirmation that we already bottomed out. The next scenario is to keep on pumping and break the resistance level. If we failed again, most probably this analysis will start over again. We should see those consistent small pumping, that can be a big game changer.

It is sure promising, and yet we are going to see a ton of people who will still sell their coins at these prices, and that baffles me. In any case, I already filled my bags, and I am ready to roll, I believe that we are going to end up with a good increase from here. It doesn't have to happen, it could reach to a 30k+ level not too later than now.

I agree on the long term part, can't say much about short term, but the long term bear exhaustion is a real thing, it can't be a bear forever, and eventually bears will have to stop and at that point we are going to go up and this was the first signal showing that they can't take it anymore.

Very true, the volume spike can additionally be seen on the 4hr at the break-out level which is promising. Although at present it looks like price is at the resistance level of a W-pattern break-out, or Adam & Eve depending on pattern preference. The fact that the short-term is suggesting continuation of bullish momentum, and the long-term is signalling bearish exhaustion (RSI leaving oversold), is the type of bullish confluence within both time frames that we haven't seen for a long-time. For me price still needs to break $23K for confirmation, for longer-term it'll be a Weekly close above the 200WMA.

Its also worth to add that short term price action together with volume is finally confirming what we see on weekly candles (possible bottom based on super oversold weekly rsi).

I'm talking about confirmation of W-pattern breakout on extreme high volume:

Current 1h BTC/USDT volume on binance spot is record high. 66k BTC worth around 1.5 billion $ just swapped hands. And it looks like the next candles will be even bigger.

That's 3x more than hourly candle that hit the bottom at 17,700 - June 18, 2022. That's 2x more than the 50k to 42k dump and a return to 47,500 - December 4, 2021, when hopes for a return to tu bull market were shattered. 50% more than during the bloody correction of May 19, 2021, when the bubble burst first time.

Update:

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As price today retests $22.5K, $500 short of the 200WMA, the Weekly RSI is now attempting to leave oversold conditions, for the first time since 2018:



While there is still the weekend to go before the Weekly close, and still plenty of time for price to get rejected at current levels (especially the 200WMA at $22,563) this would be the third time the RSI has left oversold on the Weekly, signalling the lows for bear markets in 2015 and 2018. Notably price is also testing the the 50 Month MA at $21.9K, after closing it's first ever month below this moving average.



There has additionally been a break-out of the symmetrical triangle that formed in recent weeks with reasonable volume and a target of around $26K. In the short and long-term, there remains a big volume gap between $22.5K and $29K, so original theories of a quick relief rally back to previous support looks likely. Clearing the 200WMA and $23K could see some serious volatility to the upside in the near future.