Topic: We're 30,300 blocks from the reward drop! (Read 7413 times)
getting late now.On this site you should continually calculate an approximate date and time before reward halving. Would be nice to have. Bitcoinwatch.com should have the same so people have a deadline to look at.
Done and done.
great, thanks guys. my first (sort of) contribution to the bitcoin source
Done and done.
^ Yes... That's exactly what I said. blockexplorer.com has got it wrong.
even though it's only a code-comment and not actual code, that is the kind of statement that can lead newbies to confusion about how things actually work:
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
should say:
// Subsidy is cut in half approximately every 4 years
or
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years
Agreed. Though I'm not quite sure how much newbies read source code (or the comments in it). // Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
should say:
// Subsidy is cut in half approximately every 4 years
or
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years
well, i'm sure they read them a lot more when they're posted to this forum.
^ Yes... That's exactly what I said. blockexplorer.com has got it wrong.
even though it's only a code-comment and not actual code, that is the kind of statement that can lead newbies to confusion about how things actually work:
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
should say:
// Subsidy is cut in half approximately every 4 years
or
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years
Agreed. Though I'm not quite sure how much newbies read source code (or the comments in it). // Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
should say:
// Subsidy is cut in half approximately every 4 years
or
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years
Current Block: 169672
Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
First block with 25 BTC reward is not 209999, it's 210000.Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
Code reads:
Code:
int64 static GetBlockValue(int nHeight, int64 nFees)
{
int64 nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
nSubsidy >>= (nHeight / 210000);
return nSubsidy + nFees;
}
Only 20405 blocks to go now!
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-06 21:40:54 (GMT+2)
Last I checked, with integer division 209999/210000 = 0, so 210000 will be the first block with 25 BTC reward. Height = block number since the first block was number 0.
Current Block: 169672
Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
First block with 25 BTC reward is not 209999, it's 210000.Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
Code reads:
Code:
int64 static GetBlockValue(int nHeight, int64 nFees)
{
int64 nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
nSubsidy >>= (nHeight / 210000);
return nSubsidy + nFees;
}
Only 20405 blocks to go now!
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-06 21:40:54 (GMT+2)
even though it's only a code-comment and not actual code, that is the kind of statement that can lead newbies to confusion about how things actually work:
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
should say:
// Subsidy is cut in half approximately every 4 years
or
// Subsidy is cut in half every 210000 blocks which will occur approximately every 4 years
Current Block: 169672
Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
First block with 25 BTC reward is not 209999, it's 210000.Last Block with 50 BTC reward: 209998 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209998
First Block with 25 BTC reward: 209999 https://blockexplorer.com/q/bcperblock/209999
209999-169672=40327 blocks to reward halving.
Code reads:
Code:
int64 static GetBlockValue(int nHeight, int64 nFees)
{
int64 nSubsidy = 50 * COIN;
// Subsidy is cut in half every 4 years
nSubsidy >>= (nHeight / 210000);
return nSubsidy + nFees;
}
Only 20405 blocks to go now!
First 25 BTC block will probably be mined at: 2012-12-06 21:40:54 (GMT+2)
It's almost midnight Cinderella!
I think the price will reflect the reward cut as we have seen with the recent rise to +$8
Im waiting for after the block cut to get a new gaming pc
Im waiting for after the block cut to get a new gaming pc
I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of selling pressure immediately after the block cut due to this very line of reasoning.
Also... 20806 blocks to go!
I think the price will reflect the reward cut as we have seen with the recent rise to +$8
Im waiting for after the block cut to get a new gaming pc
Im waiting for after the block cut to get a new gaming pc
Yes you are right, if all 8+ million were on the exchange to be bought. Only like 350k btc is on mtgox.
Your point?
Your point?
My coins aren't on technically on MtGox, but believe me they will end up there real fast if the price is right. So while you only see 350k on MtGox at this moment, a whole lot more are just waiting for the right price.
I am starting to wonder whether GPU miners will keep going at it or not.
I will mine as long as I am breaking even or better. The exchange rate where I'm not breaking even is silly low. It gets even lower in the winter.
I will keep mining regardless. I mined SETI@home and folding@home for "free" before I discovered bitcoins. Even if I made a penny profit per month, I'd keep mining.
I'm expecting network hashrate to start dropping 2-3 weeks before the halving. Marginal GPU miners will want to balance "mining to the bitter end", with, "beating the rush to sell GPU's on ebay"
We could also see the hashrate ramping up during the last few weeks, as anyone who has any type of mining hardware tries to squeeze out every last bitcoin they can before the reward drops. This could really go in any direction
price of Bitcoin is based on speculation
FTFY
I'm expecting network hashrate to start dropping 2-3 weeks before the halving. Marginal GPU miners will want to balance "mining to the bitter end", with, "beating the rush to sell GPU's on ebay" After the halving, you will see an instant drop to 60-70% of pre-halving hashrate as the rest of the marginal miners do the math and figure out they aren't paying the electric bills anymore.
Sigg
The other interesting question is: where will total hashrate be in 7 months? This chart shows about a 30% increase in mining in three months beginning in December 2011. If price remains stable, (it may rise in anticipation of the block reward halving) the global hashrate could double between now and December if bitcoin keeps making headlines. I think the market will have these events priced in before they arrive.
$1/BTC that is very low with GPUs. My 2GH box produces 1.25 BTC/day, it costs 850W/1000*24=20.4 kWh*0.069=$1.41/day to run.
But if I add the delivery/transmission/account admin/other costs that my utility co. adds to the bill, it is more like $0.10/kWh so the cost goes to $2.04/day.
So my marginal mining rate (or MMR) is $1.63/BTC
Got to add icarus boards to my setup :-(
But if I add the delivery/transmission/account admin/other costs that my utility co. adds to the bill, it is more like $0.10/kWh so the cost goes to $2.04/day.
So my marginal mining rate (or MMR) is $1.63/BTC
Got to add icarus boards to my setup :-(
Umm.. unless you are mining at a dedicated mining facility, you shouldn't add in the delivery/trans/admin/other costs if they are fixed*. If you are mining at home, you'd be paying those anyway. Marginal cost would only be 0.069/kWh.
* If they are not fixed, but variable charges based on kWh usage, then ignore the above. You do, however, need to go down to your electric co and slap around someone for making your bill more confusing
Sigg
to clarify, I think 60-70% have an electrical cost <50% of their current revenue. If network hashrate is 10 Thash before halving, I expect it to be 6-7 Thash after halving.
Sigg
Sigg
DOH. I read drop "to" as drop "of".
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