Something that occurred to me was regarding these specialized FPGA boards like the one from Butterfly Labs. You pay around $600 for a highly specialized device that generates around 800 MHash/sec. That's fine, except you can set up an equivalent performing GPU rig for about the same money (or less).
As others have pointed out, a GPU could be resold into the gaming market to at least recoup some of the investment. Who'd want to buy a used BFL box?
Add to the mix the fact that in less than a year the rewards of mining will be cut in half.
It's like what happened to the price of generators after Y2K.
Topic: We're 30,300 blocks from the reward drop! - page 2. (Read 7415 times)
Siggy your 60% to 70%+ numbers means you think 70%+ or more of miners have an electrical cost >50% of their revenue?
God I hope your right. With GPU my operating cost is <$1.30 per BTC and should be <$1.00 per BTC pretty soon. I wouldn't be mining right now if it costs me >$2.50 per BTC.
God I hope your right. With GPU my operating cost is <$1.30 per BTC and should be <$1.00 per BTC pretty soon. I wouldn't be mining right now if it costs me >$2.50 per BTC.
to clarify, I think 60-70% have an electrical cost <50% of their current revenue. If network hashrate is 10 Thash before halving, I expect it to be 6-7 Thash after halving.
Sigg
Siggy your 60% to 70%+ numbers means you think 70%+ or more of miners have an electrical cost >50% of their revenue?
God I hope your right. With GPU my operating cost is <$1.30 per BTC and should be <$1.00 per BTC pretty soon. I wouldn't be mining right now if it costs me >$2.50 per BTC.
God I hope your right. With GPU my operating cost is <$1.30 per BTC and should be <$1.00 per BTC pretty soon. I wouldn't be mining right now if it costs me >$2.50 per BTC.
This assumes we aren't in the middle of a bubble come halving-day. If thats the case, yer gonna have to start looking at tea leaves and chicken entrails to get a feel for where we're headed.
Sigg
I'll stick to my wish bones.
I fully expect miners to drop out as soon as the halving block happens, since at that point revenue gets cut by half, and mining will no longer be profitable for many. So, until the next difficulty change, blocks, and thus transactions, will take a long time, mined by only the few still left doing it. So, I wonder if the huge drop in supply will be offset by a huge increase in inconvenience and uncertainty? Or will the uncertainty and expectation of a price increase drive up Bitcoin prices a week or so beforehand, to the point where mining will still remain just barely profitable, thus avoiding the issue?
I'm expecting network hashrate to start dropping 2-3 weeks before the halving. Marginal GPU miners will want to balance "mining to the bitter end", with, "beating the rush to sell GPU's on ebay" After the halving, you will see an instant drop to 60-70% of pre-halving hashrate as the rest of the marginal miners do the math and figure out they aren't paying the electric bills anymore.
Give it a month or 2 for difficulty to come in line with the new hash-availabily reality, and the end result will be that mining income per Ghash will be worth about 80% of what it was before. (I'm guessing around $2 per day per Ghash)
If any, the halving will only cause a very small increase in the price of BTC.
This assumes we aren't in the middle of a bubble come halving-day. If thats the case, yer gonna have to start looking at tea leaves and chicken entrails to get a feel for where we're headed.
Sigg
I fully expect miners to drop out as soon as the halving block happens, since at that point revenue gets cut by half, and mining will no longer be profitable for many. So, until the next difficulty change, blocks, and thus transactions, will take a long time, mined by only the few still left doing it. So, I wonder if the huge drop in supply will be offset by a huge increase in inconvenience and uncertainty? Or will the uncertainty and expectation of a price increase drive up Bitcoin prices a week or so beforehand, to the point where mining will still remain just barely profitable, thus avoiding the issue?
Thinking another way lets pretend Satoshi had made the block reward 25 instead of 50 for first 210,000 blocks. Do you imagine the price of BTC today would be the same, lower, or higher?
Interesting question. I'm tempted to say it could be the same,
Well I never said it would rise however price of Bitcoin is based on supply and the reduced block reward means less supply coming on the market.
Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Still, theres plenty of coins to cover current market needs. And its not a fact that demand will rise in the future.Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Yes you are right, if all 8+ million were on the exchange to be bought. Only like 350k btc is on mtgox.
Your point?
Well I never said it would rise however price of Bitcoin is based on supply and the reduced block reward means less supply coming on the market.
Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Still, theres plenty of coins to cover current market needs. And its not a fact that demand will rise in the future.Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Well demand is always unknown. Block reward could double and demand could triple and prices would still rise.
Regardless lower supply is always bullish. Yes if demand falls faster than supply then prices can fall but they would have fallen even MORE had supply remained static. Thinking another way lets pretend Satoshi had made the block reward 25 instead of 50 for first 210,000 blocks. Do you imagine the price of BTC today would be the same, lower, or higher? Another way to look at it is if 1.3 million bitcoins were erased due to a software error would that cause prices to rise, fall or remain the same?
Well I never said it would rise however price of Bitcoin is based on supply and the reduced block reward means less supply coming on the market.
Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Still, theres plenty of coins to cover current market needs. And its not a fact that demand will rise in the future. Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Well I never said it would rise however price of Bitcoin is based on supply and the reduced block reward means less supply coming on the market.
Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
Say tomorrow gold production globally fell 50% what do you think would happen to the price of gold?
What's the ETA for the doomsday? And what if price of bitcoin will remain the same or will drop to 2-3$?
Why would price drop because supply is going down? What's the ETA for the doomsday? And what if price of bitcoin will remain the same or will drop to 2-3$?
Why would price drop because supply is going down? 
39,364
= ~273 days to go
= ~273 days to go
What's the ETA for the doomsday? And what if price of bitcoin will remain the same or will drop to 2-3$?
I am starting to wonder whether GPU miners will keep going at it or not. Then the market will be flooded with 5xxx and 6xxx series GPUs driving the prices way down. In the future there will be those with free electricity, and those with FPGAs.
What are your opinions?
What are your opinions?
I'll probably keep my GPU mining for quite a long time. You people in hot countries probably forget about it, but here, we heat for 6 months a year. FPGA is cute and wonderful, but I'm not counting on it to keep the house warm in winter.
Even if the price drops a lot, we already pay for heating. Bitcoin mining is a way to make heating profitable
Yeah man. My rigs are placed around my house strategically to warm the house in the winter. They work great lol I NEVER use my heater.
I am starting to wonder whether GPU miners will keep going at it or not. Then the market will be flooded with 5xxx and 6xxx series GPUs driving the prices way down. In the future there will be those with free electricity, and those with FPGAs.
What are your opinions?
What are your opinions?
Pick the right card and there is reasonable resale value. I have sold most of my cards for near what I paid for them, after making money mining on them. The gaming market does put a floor on the resale value even if it is low.
I paid $689 for my 6990, it still sells on ebay for an average of $550 even though I have make more then the cost of the card already.
At the reward drop time, I will have made a considerable profit even if I turned off all of the hardware and threw it out. Now a person using a FPGA mining card has a long payback time and uncertain resale value. Maybe FPGA is the future after the reward drop.... but people buying now may never even pay off the gear.
In the future there will be those with free electricity, and those with FPGAs.
What are your opinions?
What are your opinions?
Really that black or white? Only those w/ free electricity or FPGAs.
Marginal miners will be squeezed out and difficulty will fall. All that matters is revenue per GH/s.
Bitcoinx makes nice charts (I just wish they were based one 1 GH/s).
Today a miner makes about $3.20 daily per GH/s. If the block reward drop was today and price didn't rise AND difficulty didn't fall the same miner wold be making $1.60 per GH/s. My rigs cost about ~$0.90 daily in electricity per GH/s. So I would still be operating.
However lets look at the peak in this chart. It was $6.00 daily per GH/s. So lets say hypothetically price rose to ~$7 and difficulty fell 20% that would put us back at $6 daily per GH/s. Then reward got cut in half. That drops us to $3 daily per GH/s. Lower than today but hardly the doomsday scenario right?
The network will always adjust (unless people operate at a loss). My guess is that after price & difficulty stabilizes following the drop we will be between $2 & $6 (recent peak and bottom) per GH/s.
+1, but I would allows some caveats. For example, people may instead anticipate a rise in value after the reward-halving and continue to mine. Actually, if I had to choose, I might fall on that side of the fence. Potential reasoning for this includes a net rise in demand (i.e. can't mine as quickly but still want Bitcoins? Guess you have to buy them).
Here in Georgia I'm profitable with my single card system down to 1.96 or so per coin
Obviously someone in California won't be able to get away with that shit, napkin math says they break even at 6.2, I think I fudged some numbers
Assuming I flat out get half the amount of coins (doubt that'll happen), break even is 3.92
Obviously someone in California won't be able to get away with that shit, napkin math says they break even at 6.2, I think I fudged some numbers
Assuming I flat out get half the amount of coins (doubt that'll happen), break even is 3.92
Well, I've decided to get into FPGA mining, how I'm doing that is here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/starting-a-new-fpga-mining-farmcontract-cognitive-resurrected-onhavelock-67547
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/starting-a-new-fpga-mining-farmcontract-cognitive-resurrected-onhavelock-67547
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