Lost Bitcoins is a good thing actually. They make your unlost bitcoins more valuable. (As long as the lost ones aren't yours of course)
I don't think so: nobody knows anybody has lost his coins, there's no way to know it, apart the case I exposed in the previous post, or by admission of the user himself, which can be fraudulent.
AT THE MOMENT the value of your coins is UNAFFECTED by lost coins.
In the future, when we'll hit the wall, THEN this may affect it, as less and less coins will be in circulation.
Do you know what circulation means? If coins are lost, they are immediately out of circulation. Therefore, there are less of them.
Since you don't know anything about how anything works, I'll explain it to you:
The supply and the demand determine the price. Every lost coin decreases the supply, which increases the price. Every coin in cold storage has the same affect.
So at the moment, the value of your coins is affected by lost coins.
I can propose an even worse scenario: let's say that USA now bans Bitcoins.
FBI could, after taking them from criminals, instead than resell them on the market, just burn and lose the keys to recover them.
We are talking about thousands of BTC wasted in each major operation and a continuous waste in smaller operations.
Actually, this would be possibly the only way to neutralize a cryptocurrency: bleed it to death.
We can only hope that would happen. If "neutralize" means "make it worth $10,000", then please go ahead.
there is no other reason why it should go to x100 or whatever crazy value, because we have only lost 50% of total supply
Do you know what a 2% difference in supply does to the price of pork, or wheat, or corn? No, of course you don't know. Hint: It can change it a lot more than 2%.
Did you know that the price of corn was $7.00 a bushel in 2012, and $3.50 in 2014? I'll save you the trouble of doing the math: that's half the price.
Just go to an exchange and pay attention. When one person puts in a big order, it can influence everyone else to change their orders because they're afraid their orders won't get filled.
Around one year ago, I made a quick count and found that 21 million BTC, if they would be distributed to cover ALL the Earth wealth (241 trillions), they would be not granular enough to be used as currency.
To say it another way: a single Satoshi would be valued something like 50 or 100 $, and couldn't be used for shopping in a comfortable way.
Satoshi did the same calculation, and he determined that all the money in the world could be replaced with Bitcoin and a Satoshi could still be worth much less than 1 dollar.
Of course, he was using the M1 money supply. I'm sure you know what that is, so I won't explain it.
But I will point out that 1 bitcoin is 100 Million satoshis. According to my math, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that would make 10 bitcoins
approximately 1 Billion satoshis (give or take a few satoshis, of course, it's impossible to be accurate with such big numbers). And then 10,000 bitcoins would be 1 trillion satoshis. Are we on the same page so far?
So, if you are correct, and I'm sure you are, then we need 241 trillion dollars...So let's see...10,000 bitcoins is a trillion satoshis...so we need 2,410,000
BTC...and we're going to have about 21,000,000...so if 88% of all bitcoins are lost, then we won't be able to send an amount less than 1 dollar. Is that about right?
Hopefully by the time 88% of all bitcoins are lost, someone will make another coin that can be used for smaller transactions. Kind of a "lite" version of bitcoin, maybe. Do you think it will happen in time to avoid a global crisis?