Chinese mining pools seem to have played the decisive role in the debate. As CoinFox wrote recently, a joint statement of BTCChina, Huobi, F2Pool, BW and Antpool favoured a compromise – an increase of the block size to 8MB instead of 20MB.
China’s five largest mining pools gathered at the National Conference Center in Beijing to hold a technical discussion about the ramifications of increasing the max block size on the Bitcoin network. In attendance were F2Pool, BW, BTCChina, Huobi.com, and Antpool. After undergoing deep consideration and discussion, the five pools agree that while the block size does need to be increased, a compromise should be made to increase the network max block size to 8 megabytes. We believe that this is a realistic short term adjustment that remains fair to all miners and node operators worldwide.
Why upgrade to 8MB but not 20MB?
1.Chinese internet bandwidth infrastructure is not built out to the same advanced level as those found in other countries.
2.Chinese outbound bandwidth is restricted; causing increased latency in connections between China & Europe or the US.
3.Not all Chinese mining pools are ready for the jump to 20MB blocks, and fear that this could cause an orphan rate that is too high.
The bitcoin miners of China agree that the blocksize must be increased, but we believe that increasing to 8MB first is the most reasonable course of action. We believe that 20MB blocks will cause a high orphan rate for miners, leading to hard forks down the road. If the bitcoin community can come to a consensus to upgrade to 8MB blocks first, we believe that this lays a strong foundation for future discussions around the block size. At present, China’s five largest mining pools account for more than 60% of the network hashrate.
The long debate over the bitcoin block size is over. The updates being done to the bitcoin code have been published by the core developer Gavin Andresen on GitHub. The block size will change from 1MB to 8MB, with further doubling every two years – so in 2018, it will reach 16 MB, then 32MB in 2020 and so on.
2016: 8 MB
2018: 16 MB
2020: 32 MB
2022: 64 MB
2024: 128 MB
2026: 256MB
2028: 512 MB
2030: 1024 MB
2032: 2048 MB
2034: 4096 MB
Personally I believe that this well overestimating the rate internet connection-speeds and hard-disk space will grow. Just look at ADSL or even cable for instance.
4096 MB per 10minutes in a year will grow to: 205TB per year worth of storage.
I wonder if they took in account the laws of physics in this equation. It is not impossible but who can and will pay for such an investment just to be a unpaid bitcoin client (full node).