Topic: What do you guys think about the death cross ? - page 2. (Read 635 times)

yeah, it certainly looks like the $3k range. price has fallen down unexpectedly and without reason and now everyone is confused with a lot of those who sold late wishing for bigger drops so they keep seeing charts in the way the like (pointing to a bigger drop) so that they can buy.
there is a difference though. in the entire first half of month of December, we had a downtrend. but now all we had over the past 30+ days have been stability (chart looks nearly horizontal).

False signals of death cross are abound right now imo. BTC currently at 8k and constantly showing a bullish rise steadily.
And even if Death cross would occur, I doubt it could make a huge effect on the market. Besides, only those day traders would be hugely affected. I'm doubtful that long term investors would let themselves be affected by it since most of them would have depended on the horizontal line instead of the death cross since it is quite inefficiently to base off of it.

Might be a false death cross: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbh0A1IKBdw
with these analysis we can either utilize or just ignore these technicals.

You should at least tag up some charts so that people will able to see on what you are referring into.Death cross? This isnt applicable on bitcoin market
but somehow these sentiments can make out some emotional effects among into its traders.

Yet, we had already seen some Death cross last 2014 https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
Then what happened? We did even reach new ATH in 2017.

The "death cross" is one of the most cliche and well known chart patterns, and even if it did provide some trading advantage at some point in the past for some products,

the traditional interpretation of it would have long ago ceased to lead to any meaningful profitability because too many people are already anticipating and factoring it in their trading decisions.

Unless you have a way to react to it differently from the stampeding herds of mainstream actors, the main effect such an overused and globally known indicator can have on the markets is psychological...

This morning's bounce might be good news for those hoping to avoid the death cross. These are the first hourly higher highs and overbought conditions since the last push to $8,800. This could be the start of something but it's too early to say:



Bulls obviously have their work cut out for them but there's a chance this is our push to the $9,000s. This would lean towards the scenario David has charted here with the green arrows.

It depends what day averages lines are you looking at. On some In 2016 made golden cross, then death cross and then again golden cross. On some it made only golden cross.    For sure death and golden cross are good indicator what is ahead, but only by looking in past what it did before.

be careful with that thought process
the 18m coins in circulation(supply) is not the same as the 1.2m coins in exchange(supply)

in very value simplicity. if no more coins were mind today. exchange demand can increase 15x without even touching the full circulation supply tip

..
also the actual numbers of bitcoin is 2,100,000,000,000,000sats
btc(100m sats) is just an arbitory human eye visable depiction of the actual units available meaning
2.1quadrillion people can own 1 unit equally
21trillion people can own 100sat(1bit) equally
7billion people can own 3000bits(300,000sats) equally

most people life savings are just ~$25k(average) meaning 12sats can be $1
. but to get to my point.
devs are already trying to trick economic supply/demand by allowing 1000x more units of measure
they want to add 'millisats' into it
basically 1btc=100,000,000,000ms
by having more units of measure more people can have a 'share'/unit. or more people can accumilate more units of measure. thus cause a change to the supply/demand dynamic

so dont expect much rational/smart people to be affected by supply/demand in 120 years when fresh coins dry up. you will just see speculation/hype bubble pump the speculative spot price way above the underlying value next year for a temporary spike in a new ATH and settle down again when drama is over.
in short the halving is not in of itslf a value increase indicator but a speculative temporary drama event. which offers a small oppertunity for miners to profit and expand their farms where by the farms then sustain a higher value support wall

I remember, btc increase during the holiday season last bull, so this statement of you isn't that true at all mate, since in fact it happened already. No one knows what could be the end of it. But I'm sure if not this year, maybe the following years it will happen again.

The graph show unstable movement, and literally I cant see a good come back but fundamentals is way stronger than TA. Bitcoin halving is approaching, and 3millions btc left for us to mine. You know what happened when supply limits, the demand will increase.

as a trend indicator, it performs decently on the daily chart. in 2014 and 2018, the initial death cross after the bubble popped confirmed long term bear markets in both cases. there have been a couple fakeouts throughout bitcoin's history though, it's true.


agreed, you certainly can't trade off it. in fact in the short term it almost seems to act as a contrarian indicator. the april 2014 and march 2018 crosses occurred right before huge bounces.

Moving averages are an indicator and this is a bearish sign but only alongside others.  I think if we are going to be accurate it has be an accumulated view, much as I'd like to spend five minutes and come to a sound conclusion its probably going to be harder to perceive good direction then just one moment, day or even week.    
   I think the good advice I was given by a professional was the direction of the moving average is the best indicator to how much caution should be employed, when we have a falling 200 day average then it brings with it the idea we are entering a bear market.   If we see a flat line on 200 day then we have to be careful in not being too bearish or bullish as it can be a market in transition.
  So going on that rule of thumb, we are still ascending in the 200 day average and I think this pullback is too early to assume as being especially harsh or likely to increase in momentum.   We have to examine the case every day really on multiple time frames.

And most of the time, those speculations remain speculations. They are not happening when the time comes. I am still very optimistic with the future of bitcoin. Why? Because more and more institutions are joining the pack, more shops are integrating crypto in their payment methods and to think that a lot of crypto exchanges are being launched. If they don't see the growth in crypto, why are they launching a business which has very tough competition in the market?

I don't consider $7,700 a real support level. Losing it just means breaking down from a short term bear flag, which should be expected.

Structurally on the weekly chart, our current position looks a lot like the first week of December 2018. Not the bottom, but close.


Usually when everyone wants to long from the same level, we never reach it at all.

The issues with these death crosses and moving averages is that they are lagging indicators. If you look at the charts for the previous crosses you would see that sometimes they work and sometimes they don't work. However if you only took an entry right when the cross took place you would have a horrible entry. Whether the death cross actually played out or not.

This is something to look at in the long term macro level but its not good to base trades off, especially if you are trying to day trade. You need to look at other fundamental factors. I think most people in crypto just look at horizontal lines and take their long term trades based off that.

Right now we are pretty much in a neutral area, if the $7700 support breaks then it could be the start of the bear market and I don't think the $6000 area will be enough support to bounce us back up. There are too many people who want to long off $6000 and most likely it won't hold.

Unlike early 2018, everyone seems to be watching for this death cross and expecting the worst. Sentiment is getting miserable. Most analysts I know are very bearish with the exception of those who have been through multiple bubble cycles.

To me, this kind of sentiment is indicative of bottom. I expect another attempt down below $7,700 but my gut tells me bulls will reject it hard and that any death cross will be a false signal. That happened once before in 2015.

Either way, let's at least let the death cross occur before expecting the worst.

There were numerous death cross fakeouts where the price hit a death cross and there was a big red candle following but Bitcoin lost only a couple points and bounced back up. You can look for these fake crosses in the charts.

Yes a death cross usually means a sell pressure but this pressure can be big or small. It can mean bitcoin lowing 2% or 20% depending on the state of the market. Now it looks like we are bullish with the coming halving and shouldn't go lower than 6000 dollars.

That's what moving averages are for in my opinion. It's obviously not bullet proof, but what is?

If we're above the 200MA on the daily, we're generally quite bullish and vice versa when we're below that moving average. Currently we're hovering below the 200MA on the daily, where one more dump will make me shift to the weekly time frame to reassess the market. The 200MA on the daily is ~$8800 while the weekly 200MA is gearing towards ~$4700 as we speak.

Back in 2018 and 2019 we had a bounce off the 200WMA twice which ended up being the perfect bottom to buy. It's important to state that between 2016 and now we have never had a weekly close below the 200WMA, so it should tell you something about how important it is for long term trend recognition.

We're currently far above the 200WMA, so the longer we consolidate above that moving average we're going to get a higher floor even when we move sideways for a whole year.

The death cross means absolutely nothing to me, when it comes to stocks and other similar markets that move slower that this market it could be possible to use that crossing as a signal that the market is going down and it will soon enter a bearish season but when it comes to this market that moves so fast and it has a huge volatility the death cross means nothing, I do not really need a confirmation that the market is going down when I can see what the price has been doing during the last weeks.

What I will be interested in knowing will be how low the price will go and how long will this bear season last but as far as I know that is not possible to do.

It's not science to me, it's just making predictions by finding patterns. It can come true or not, pretty much like any other prediction. Bitcoin is not very predictable, and it would be strange if it was, given that the price is not regulated by any authority. I hope that people will stay calm, won't make this "profecy" self-fulfilling. Bitcoin is holding the position, for now, it may or may not keep doing so regardless of any crosses or whatever else people see while analyzing the charts. If people who have a lot of Bitcoins believe the FUD around the cross thing, it can bring us another price drop. But saying that the drop was caused by the cross would be committing the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

Bitcoin isn't a cat that have 9 lives, I wonder when they are going to stop saying that bitcoin is getting its funeral soon, I mean this rumors are spreading since bitcoin got the spotlight, lets stop believing this nonsense, you wouldn't be here if you gave up in bitcoin already.