Topic: What do you guys think about the death cross ? (Read 635 times)

In what world? If you shorted say $7.7K, then moved a stop loss to $7.5K (or even break even), the you would either make money or break even generally speaking. Obviously the odd il-liquid could cost you money, but that's again the traders fault of using unreliable exchanges. I use stop losses all the time to book profit, as I prefer it than selling a good price then seeing the price move further in my favor. A stop loss is nothing more than an automated market buy/sell based on a certain trigger price, to reduce losses or pre-book profits.


I going to generally just agree to what you said, especially about people rushing back in after selling or shorting $9k, it does make logical sense. It also sounds like a bad case of people making plays on bigger time frames then losing money on buying back in on smaller time frames which is always an awful idea, unless it's to save being liquidated of course. I do wonder how many who shorted $9K also bought back in at $10K and will again panic sell below $9K again (if it breaks below). Seems some people are reliable for donating profits to others traders as if it's a habit 

Admittedly I don't follow leverage so much, how long or short people are, how bullish the market is etc, but otherwise what I consider the probabilities of certain moves and their measurements are. I'm not very interested in what everyone else is doing, especially if by your accounts they have been doing it wrong recently. In summary, to me, breaking below $9K would always be a risky short, a hedge at best, given you are shorting a bull market - you are likely to get burnt if you don't know what you are doing.

Especially now we are more or less undeniably in a bull market (above the 200 Day MA and finding support from it), but that also doesn't mean I can't be a little bearish short to medium-term, given how people love to panic sell when they see price breakdowns 

Getting your stop losses triggered = losing money.

Look at what happened to shorts (at the bottom, in red):



We can see that shorts increased by ~30% in the $7,000s and peaked at the bottom on October 24th. Then they were squeezed and short levels bottomed out on October 26th when price hit $10,500.

Also, consider all the price action in the red box. From September 24th to October 25th, the market ranged below $8,800. Considering that price is now in the $9,300s, all sellers/shorters in that range who didn't buy back lower are now sitting in loss.

We can also be fairly sure the vast majority of traders did not buy back lower. Why? Sentiment was deathly bearish in the $7,000s. Everyone expected at least $7K; most people expected $5K-$6K if not $3K. In hindsight, we can now see this was extreme bottom selling sentiment. Bears weren't buying back in the $7,000s and this is confirmed by looking at short levels.


Wishful thinking. Most traders are losing money.

The breakdown on September 24th was extremely quick. Price went from $9,400 to $8,600 in a single 15-min candle. We can tell from short levels that hardly anyone shorted the top.

We then spent a month trading below $8,800. Everyone shorting at these levels either stop lossed or got liquidated already, or they are sitting on unrealized losses right now. A small minority surely profited, but sentiment and commitment of traders strongly suggests the majority did not.


It's not just sub-$8,000. The entire September 24th to October 25th trading range was between $8,800 and $7,300!

Why do you seem to think most sellers in that month-long range bought back in profit? The magnitude of the squeeze (third biggest daily gain in Bitcoin history) suggests the opposite. There was incredible desperation to buy back in at loss.


Based on my experience with time and proportions, I'd say it's extremely likely we get a higher high whether we're in a bull market or not. There's a decent chance we could hit $12K and then go full bear.

Betting on full bear from here though? That's very dicey to me.


I think "neutral" is rather accurate, and what I'd hope for. Like xxxx123abcxxxx, I think we are in a minor Wave 2 pullback. Wave 2 is generally characterized by confusion between bull and bear because it occurs at the beginning of a trend change.


I just mean I'm glad not everyone is bullish. It's a bad feeling to be long when everyone is bullish.

Note I didn't reply to all of your message, even if I did appreciate the info, as a lot of this comes down to different style of trading/investing/hedging I believe.


I'm not so sure about this, clearly many panic sold it down to $7.5K after buying around $10K (mainly "new money" I'd imagine), but I don't see how you would of lost money shorting from $9.4K, $8.4 or $7.8K, unless you forgot to use a stop loss - in which case you deserve to lose all your money. I think instead many caught this profit, upto 25% of it. There was only a few days when you could of shorted $7.5K and got "rekt", in which case for most experienced traders they'd be risking recent profit with a stop loss, rather than fresh capital.


We also up trended for less than 24 hours and retraced half the gains within a few days, so there is irony here with this statement. As I mentioned previously, I was shorting above $8K and accumulating below this level, so I'm currently in 2/3 of a swing position from $7650 av. for reference sake. I guess you could say I got lucky, either that or I buy low and sell high, short high and close low, short and long term timeframes. Just because I'm not buying doesn't mean I'm selling a long position, even if I'd short again as a hedge (but only after confirmation). I'd also happily move this swing position to my hodl if the price holds up, this was half of the reasoning for it - in case I was wrong about $6410.

It wouldn't take $14K for me to shed my bearish bias, just a higher high on a long-time timeframe. Currently, given last month/weeks close, that's been lowered to $10.5K. Previously it was $12K but I'd begin laddering before this to get a better average price. As a trader, I never mind buying the price after it's doubled, last time that was at $6.4K so has done me well. Next time it could be at $9K for example, even $6.4K again if we're really lucky. As an investor, I'll otherwise BTFD without much thought process which also serves me well.


Not sure most people are bearish now, from my perspective most seem bullish (hence the bearish bias).
The fear & greed index claims a neutral market, so I think both of us are wrong to have either "natural" bias.
Regardless of this, I wouldn't pull any buy or sell triggers before we break down below the 200 Day MA, or break above $10.5K.

Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.

We downtrended for 4 months and just retraced half the losses in a few days. Maybe you aren't in a hurry, but I'm curious, what are you waiting for exactly before losing your bearish bias? $14K? Watching the market nearly double from the bottom seems like a long time to wait.

I've been trading for nearly a decade. The single biggest reversal signal you will ever see in a market is Wyckoff spring / headfake action like we saw last week. It's not to be ignored.


That's exactly how most pullbacks look: a downtrend within a larger uptrend. How do you distinguish between primary and counter trend?


This one?



That wasn't a bull pennant. Not even close. Bull pennants are short term consolidations proportionally, and they don't begin with 70% declines. That's why the comparisons to 2018 don't fit.


You mean the pennant breakdown that was fully retraced last week? I'm not too worried about shaking the trees a bit more. That's exactly what happens in the early goings of an uptrend.

That move was not unexpected either:


I'll tell you two things I've learned about fractal analysis over the years:
1) It does more harm than good because fractals strongly reinforce biases.
2) When you see two fractals on the same chart, they usually play out opposite. Perhaps to do with sentiment/trader expectations.

Recency bias means that everyone is looking at the July-October pennant breakdown and expecting the same fractal to play out again. It probably won't.


I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up. 

Mainly because my bearish calls for the past two months have been more than accurate enough to make good money, so no point changing that in a hurry.
Not to mention the lower highs and lower lows pattern since July, especially on the monthly. The bullish case for me is the bull flag on the monthly chart only.




Like the bull pennant of 2018, or the one we already had in 2019? Where the downtrend line is much steeper than the support trendline that's barely inclining, so much so that it can more accurately be drawn as a descending triangle? I get that were bouncing of the 200 Day MA, this is my third day scalping long trades off it, but once we close below the target is around $8,000, although I don't think we'd get that far due to how short-term and therefore unreliable this pattern is.

Zooming into this "bullish pennant" tells us a lot about where the bullish wicks are reaching: trendline resistance.



$8400 looks like a good future entry price based on the VPVR gap (circled pink). We've already failed to create the bullish symmetrical triangle / bullish pennant when we started flat lining support. Lower lows is not a bullish pennant in my opinion, as well as getting rejected from the $9400 triangle breakdown resistance level (that we've conveniently forgot about).



I'm always happy to be proved wrong (as is my hodl position), but I otherwise won't be adding to it for sometime by the looks of things.

Why so bearish? Everything about this consolidation screams "bull pennant" to me:



Daily death crosses tend to coincide with massive bounces, at least in BTC. There was April 2014, September 2015, April 2018. My gut tells me this move isn't done yet, even if I'm wrong about the overall bull market. $12,000 still beckons.

I think this "death cross" (I prefer the phrase bear cross, it's less suggestive) could go a number of different ways, as history shows us. Even if the likelihood is continued bearish price movement. I was initially anticipating a possible second wave pump to $12,000 by the end of the month, as twice before price has rallied hard into the bear cross, but now it's starting to look like the price will roll over again back the 200 & 50 Day MA's if bullish momentum doesn't have a comeback.


I also shared this likely bull cross on the Weekly charts between the 50 & 100 Week MA's elsewhere. It's not what's traditionally considered a bull cross like the "golden cross" (50 & 200 MA crossover), but it's a bullish sign nonetheless if it occurs. The price would have to hold $7500 area for a few more weeks to confirm, which is quite likely in my opinion.

Eventually that death cross doesn't happen because the price surge after a big plummet to the downside that for me is a bear trap to liquidate those who are longing in that price.
I agreee with you to keep it in a realistic way rather thank expecting to reach $1m or the hopiums this October that the price would surge up to $16k. For me its a bullish trend right now we only need time to confirm it.

Deathcross have been there isn't it. Aren't we bearing the market back then until those sudden pumps lately puts away this long drought. Well there still November and December to count let us put our hope for that month to put some positive changes in the market. Besides there are some new coin in the market rising up.

This death cross speculation is not new to us because we all knows that Bitcoin market is has been in many difficult market situations before but still it keeps on surviving so if it will granted that this death cross is different from before then so be it as there are lot of Altcoins that are willing to supersede Bitcoin as Crypto market will continue to live with or without Bitcoin.

The current trend is really growing well so you must listen when this tread was opened. Right now everyone waiting for next bull run so we buy Bitcoin in this situation it make good profit. Normally most of the peoples are think both side so those are believe the Bitcoin growing they always active in crypto market.

Its part of cryptocurrency already. There is always going to be someone one there with motives to buy but will only do if the price is low. With so many of them wishing for the price to go below $7k, I wouldn't be surprise if the price will actually drop sooner so you better be ready as well. Call it opportunity for at least we got the chance to grab some BTC.

Most of the people who've been involved in crypto these days prefer to sell their holdings to get fiat money and makes cryptocurrency as their source of income. People always dumped their coins for important purpose, and even if bitcoin was at unpredictable stage like bearish trend, no choice but failed to hold their asset due personal needs.

And now I see people talking about a different kind of cross. But forgive me if I misunderstood, wasn't the last few days exactly what's supposed to happen after a death cross? The reports I read said death cross signals major bottom, and then price will go up from there.

So why is everyone now talking about bearish trends again (not that I disagree).

The price of bitcoin reaching one million dollars is not what we are speculating for now, it is what we know that will eventually be the target of bitcoin in future which could be ten years’ time or more, because for bitcoin to reach that value, all the supply of bitcoin must have been extremely limited and bitcoin becoming so scarce, but right now, our next target of  bitcoin increase is not now or in this season of Christmas that we are approaching, but it will be after the next halving of bitcoin when miners will have their reward and that is what we expect to actually shoot the value of bitcoin high.

Bitcoin not moving upward in price is not a criteria to even judge it for not performing well because there are lot of trades and withdrawal going on and as people put in money for a purpose, so as they also pull it out for purpose too, people cannot just continue to Put money without removing it which we all think will be the main factor for having an increased value.

To be sincere, expecting that price would take a significant push to the positive would be expression of hope which unfortunately the market does not respond to but consistent trading by capital inflow and also the continued penetration of crypto to the entire populace because without that it will be the same thing whether the holiday is coming or the holiday is over and no matter the meetings or conference that would change that.

It was the holidays of 2017 when bitcoin soared at a price no one expected.
Or let us say before the holidays.
That is when people are receiving a lot of money. It could be a possibility also that people will invest their money into something. Bitcoin is one of those choices.
For me, I would not pick saving it in the bank for the increase will be so low that you needed a lot of money for you to feel the annual interest. (I really mean a lot like millions of dollars)
So let us not lose hopes that it could happen again.

That death cross is really looming now. We've had another breakdown on the daily so that 50-MA is curving down quickly:



Fortunately I've been patient and am still waiting to buy back. I think we should see a bullish reaction off $7K or upper $6,000s. Whether we're still in a bull market or not, $9K is still on the menu in the next month or two.

It seems to me that bitcoin does not lend itself to any technical analysis. He has long proved that for him there are no rules and mandatory schedules. He constantly presents us with unexpected surprises that do not correspond to any technical forecasts. Even now, bitcoin is almost equally likely to start to grow well in price, or quickly fall. Justification for one and the other of its price movement can always be found. Therefore, I do not believe in any death crosses for bitcoin. At the same time, I do not think that he is able to rise to prices in excess of $ 50,000. This is all so far from the realm of fantasy.

I guess it is more realistic to say that Bitcoin is hitting 1 million USD than to say that Bitcoin is going to hit 0, that death cross. It is not realistic to say that we will live to see that day when Bitcoin hits 1 million USD but it will most probably come in the next generation. That death cross is not going to happen. A lot of wealthy investors have stake in Bitcoin. They will do everything to push it up.