Topic: What do you think of gold price in long term? - page 11. (Read 1714 times)

Plus the opportunity cost of HODLing Gold if you can HODL Bitcoin is very high. Think about HODLing Gold vs. HODLing Bitcoin from 2015 to 2022. I'm very sure you would have lost relative to Bitcoin.

Although, continuing to observe the Gold market could remain useful, because it's one of the leading indicators to know of the Dollar is going stronger or weaker. Gold Up = Dollar Weak, Gold Down = Dollar Strong.

Gold and precious metals have lost their luster and shine.

Gold was once considered a badge of authenticity, robustness and reliability. Today it is an archaic and potentially obsolete unit of exchange. People no longer trust or respect gold the way they did in previous eras.

There is no gold for the people. As an asset it is mainly accessible to central banks and the super wealthy. Banks like JP morgan are even going so far as to reduce accessbility to gold by closing safe deposit box services.

Gold lacks infrastructure and support for exchange in markets. It can't be used to buy a cup of coffee. There is no support for it in eras of natural disaster, war or emergency. The overwhelming majority would not know what to do with a bar of gold or silver if one somehow fell out of the sky and landed in front of them.

I think central banks amassing gold is a futile exercise. The public is too disconnected from gold for it to carry much trust or sway the way it did in previous eras.

Gold's day has passed and it is now other assets which will gain prominence.

When the crisis worsens, cash is needed to survive even if its value is exposed to inflation. Investing is also necessary but may not exceed the larger portion of the cash that needs to be saved during a crisis. Due to deteriorating economic conditions, you are forced to survive and have food supplies for at least the next 6 months. The economic crisis will not only have an impact on investment assets, but the price will increase and you need to be alert to bad conditions. Apart from setting aside a few percent in Bitcoins, reducing the lifestyle portion and keeping the base stock in mind is much more important. Decide in gold is also necessary as a value resistance in a certain period of time but in retail gold not in heavy form. In anticipation of a prolonged crisis. I think countries that are aware of closing their gold stocks have predicted that the value embodied in gold will still exist in the midst of a crisis that could allow banks to freeze withdrawals.

I've got no golden dog in this fight, so for your sake I hope you're right--and you probably are; I've been watching the precious metals market since the 2000s, and all of those claims (by people who want to sell you metals) that gold/silver are great inflation hedges are just blatantly false as a general rule. 

Sure, depending on when you bought in you might get lucky and gold could be acting as a hedge, but that same statement could be true of bitcoin, stocks, or anything else.  The key of course is what price you bought the asset at.  That's always the key point.

But who knows?  If people expect gold to hedge inflation, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if they start buying it.  Me?  I'm not touching it--not that I could afford it anyway.

200 tonne of gold will not change the price of gold, but from my point of view, the confiscation / freezing of money deposited in central banks, which happened recently from some countries, is the main reason that will push countries such as India, China and others to buy more gold and keep it instead of the dollar, and this is the reason I have more than inflation.

Another problem will appear, which is that these countries will want to receive gold in their CBs, which makes the process complicated.
 
In short, the more confidence in the current financial system weakens, the greater the value of gold, something that may happen in the future (if we ignore inflation)

Why you need a safe haven (gold) when dollar is strong? That's why we don't see a gold rush right now. DXY is hitting new high day after day.

DXY vs gold:


And why dollar is strong now? I do believe its because of dolar milkshake theory - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa6UXR4hvgE&ab_channel=RealVisionFinance

I also believe that sooner or later we will see a "Plaza Accord 2.0" or "world de-dolarizing" playing a bigger role and DXY dump combined with GOLD pump. And the fact that average person is dumping because "gold is not going up in last years" while China and India are buying tons of gold makes me even more certain about my gold investment.

Gold is with us, as money, for more than 2500 years. Debt base monetary system is with us for last 50 years and everything points at its collapse as a "failed experiment". Average hause in US in 1920 was worth 6000$ !
"So starting with a nice good-size home the cost was about $6,300. If you got an apartment in NYC the rent was $60 a month."https://www.familytree.com/blog/prices-in-the-1920s/
 Dollar lost 95% of purchasing power in last 90 years.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-CUUR0000SA0R/

Don't dump gold to hold $ - "experimental currency" only because of short term price performance.

Dollar purchasing power vs gold price in last 50 years

Hell yea its inflation headge. Inflation is with us not only when it spike to 10% and the market (and asset evaluation) is dominated by panic and unrest creating "misevaluation" that we, smart investors, can take advantage of. Inflation was with us for last 90 years and gold worked well in long term.

Many of them have still not accepted bitcoins, so it can be expected that in seeking an alternative to fiat, they choose gold.

Bitcoins are a better option to invest in if you are expecting the crisis to worsen and more will realize this. People will invest more in bitcoins but it will not make gold loose its value so soon in that two years window. Although bitcoins will become the generally preferred choice, gold still has the potential of becoming more valuable if it gets scarcer.

It depends what "long" term means 
For the next years, and not few, gold will remain the main "thing" used a reserve / wealth deposit, especially by (central) banks.
So unless something big happens in science (eg proving that earth contains much more gold than expected, or much cheaper means of extracting it), gold has it's place well defined.
We, bitcoiners, may expect a mentality change and adopting bitcoin as an alternative to gold. That will happen gradually, over long period of time.

So I'd assume that for the next 10 years at least, gold price is pretty much safe (i.e. no sudden moves, overall better chance to go up than down).
Still, as bitcoiner, I see no reason to care about gold now. Maybe some day as diversification...

Gold has not lived up to its role as an inflation hedge. Prices have risen about 25% over the last 10 years, but the price of gold is the same as it was 10 years ago despite that inflation.

I believe it is due to the falling demand for gold.

Only tradition has supported demand after the gold standard was finally abandoned in 1971. As time goes by, that tradition will continue to fade and people will have less desire to hold gold as an asset. Its falling value will also cause a reduction in demand by central banks, and that will eventually result in the abandonment of gold as a purely financial asset.

I decided all of this recently, and I plan to sell my gold as I don't see prices ever going up from here.

As fiat currencies dump, some countries are moving towards increasing the amount of gold they have in their reserves. More specifically some of them are dumping US dollar to replace it with gold. For example India recently bought 200 tonne of gold and there is rumors of more conversions happening. China has been doing something similar under the radar. So are others.

However, we haven't seen any significant changes in gold price yet to approve the above news.

I'm wondering what does everyone think about gold price in the long term, specially in coming year or two as the conflicts get worse and more economies crash which would push regular people to invest in gold and more governments to start increasing their gold reserves on larger scale.