Topic: What do you think will happen in the next 4 Months??!?? (Read 3075 times)

not to mention that many run the client through a vpn. As a matter of principle I run all my internet traffic through a vpn - and I'm not even a nerd. Multiple users would count as one IP (that of the vpn).
As for bitcoin losing users. I don't know of any intelligent person who has been properly introduced to bitcoin who hasn't been seduced by the sheer genius of the system and become "hooked". I'm sure that many less imaginative minds quickly go back to watching tv (or whatever else), but bright people are simply drawn in by the awesomeness of Bitcoin.

Electrum clients don't show up. Popular android client bitcoinspinner doesn't show up. Exchange "wallets" don't show up. Paper wallets, brainwallet, casascius "wallets" don't show up.

Hell, even I dont continuously run a node these days. I'm still a member of the userbase however, entertaining at least 4 wallets that all don't show up in above graph.

I highly doubt bitcoin is loosing userbase.

Yeah, and on top of all that there are more and more fine ways to use bitcoins without being a node yourself. Electrum, blockchain.info etc. Some people just use Gox and Seals. Plus even with the download speed improvements it gradually becomes slower to get started with the standard software.

ElectricMucus, there can't be shrinking user base when we have constant exposure in the media (see Press subforum), the screenshot above is missing thread views which is also hints at increasing interest. More people talk or mention bitcoins elsewhere too besides online media and news blogs

You are basing your reasoning on a single graph of decreasing nodes. I'm not sure how it's calculated, I know previously node count was done through IRC where all nodes by default found each other, recent client updates have "noirc" flag set to default. then on top of that there are some router settings which prevent bitcoin client's good network connectivity (i forgot what is it) - i'm pretty sure those things are not enabled by default and most users would not bother with them, these nodes may not be seen in that graph too. then there are users who don't constantly run bitcoin client. Wide use of light clients which may not be see as nodes.

The number of signups will always be positve and you cannot account for the outflow of users. Added to that there are unknown numbers of sockpuppets, bot accounts and so on. I can't see that as useful.

I find it interesting that some of you die-hard fanatics cannot even account for the possibility of a shrinking userbase with growing involvement of the people left.
Nobody has suggested that this trend must continue but it will only change when the fundamentals are there.

Multibit wouldn't because it doesn't host the entire blockchain, I don't know about electrum. Cold wallets/Paper Wallets/Online Wallets/Smaller Clients are all becoming very popular, and most all of those things don't count for full nodes. Bitcoin isn't loosing its userbase, just look at the forums as an example:



A steady rise in threads, posts, etc, and a steady amount of users coming in every month. Plus the forums aren't everyone, there plenty of non members that use bitcoin.

I think the calender will say September, October, November, and December. Tailor your Bitcoin plans accordingly.

If our poor person timed the market perfectly for the worst possible outcome and bought right at the top at $31.89 and then absorbed the 50% market risk, they are still ahead of my example of using a pre-paid debit card as they would have $5 worth of BTC left. So even in the worst possible scenario with perfect negative market timing they are still ahead using Bitcoin.

Bitaddress.org was announced in September 2011

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-bitaddressorg-safe-javascript-bitcoin-addressprivate-key-43496

It might appreciate over time but it might lose half it's value in one day. Suppose one of these poor people bought when Bitcoin was at $30, and then had their coins drop to $16 each the next day? I don't think they would be rushing to buy Bitcoin anytime soon after that.

Online wallets (it's only really blockchain.info) cannot alone compensate for the decline, and nobody was able to tell me if electrum clients would show up or not or what their numbers are. There isn't 'something else' than that. Plus the decline started to manifest before those 2 came up.

Why is it so hard to accept that bitcoin is loosing excess userbase?

The cost of the alternatives is far higher. I have seen people on welfare pay $50 for a prepaid debit card in order to pay for a $20 item online. The balance then gets eaten by fees and charges. With Bitcoin the balance will likely appreciate over time. The group that will benefit the most from Bitcoin are the poor.

I'm pretty sure that is the number of full nodes running, as the blockchain grows more and more people are using online wallets or something else

That could be true to some extent, but how do those people mitigate the risk of holding Bitcoin? These people are going to be the ones least able to afford to lose money on something as risky as Bitcoin. A loss of a couple hundred dollars even could mean they wouldn't be able to pay their rent.

I don't understand why I read everwhere that the userbase grows. Where do you get it from?

If I look at http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ it looks like the user base is still declining. Or do I read this wrong?

legislation? oversight board? wtf, no thanks. consumer choice!

This ignores that fact that many consumers cannot get a credit card or a debit card that works as a credit card. It is the same reason that cash is still around despite that efforts of the financial industry for the last two decades to eliminate it. For an online merchant accepting Bitcoin is not about changing the habits of existing customers. It is about getting an entirely new customer that before Bitcoin had no cost effective way to pay for goods or services online.

Taking "Bitcoin for economic activity" to mean buying coins, spending them and the recipient sells them right away this has a negligible effect on total demand the coins involved being 'demanded' for maybe hours or a day.

But merchants accepting coin has a huge effect once people come to realize that they'll be able to get what they want for coin making it safe and/or wise to hold coin at the ready.

Some people need to see this in the most direct way "SR has been open a long time and sells thing I need so I'm going to buy more coin this time to save the hassle for my next buy". Some are more in the middle, or saw this development earlier etc.

I'm on the extreme end of this spectrum. It works as a money, I think others will eventually figure this out and that doesn't depend on any particulars of the current market. I just get and save as many as I can. A dozen people doing this increases demand by more than 1000 occasional SR one time shot, quick turnover buyers.

I've carried something like 5 million bitcoin days. I'm a nerd, that's the area under my bitcoins held each day curve.

It's really hard to predict what will happen in the next 4 months, but in my opinion Bitcoin is still in a bootstrapping phase and will be there for a long time.

Bitcoin has 4 main uses right now (besides speculation) in this bootstrapping phase:

1. Gaming tokens. Bitcoins make for great online gaming tokens because of instant or near instant cash outs and the fact that they are borderless and greatly divisible. Poker alone could be a multi-billion dollar opportunity, but there are plenty of opportunities for other non-gambling games. http://bitcointerror.com has a really novel concept where you win Bitcoins for each in-game kill.

2. Black market/grey market sales. Like it or not Bitcoin is great for black market sales because of its anonymity (after tumbling) and the fact that there are no chargebacks.

3. International transactions. Bitcoin can be used as an intermediary medium of international exchange between countries that have capital export controls, or to avoid banks that have extremely high fees. In this regard, the Bitcoin exchanges of each fiat currency become international exchange intermediaries.

4. Long term wealth storage. Bitcoin costs nearly nothing to secure, store or transport and cannot be confiscated by governments. If one can handle the volatility, it can be used for long term wealth storage.

Unfortunately, I don't think online retail sales are there yet. The reason is not because of merchant problems. I think bit-pay and mtgox can probably provide merchants with enough tools to integrate bitcoin checkouts and allow them to mitigate risk by selling the coins immediately. The problem is on the consumer end. There isn't a huge incentive for consumers to acquire Bitcoins right now. The cost (or at least perceived cost) of acquiring them is going to be greater than the cost of just whipping out a credit card. Furthermore, holding bitcoins for any significant amount of time carries risk. A consumer would have to buy the bitcoins and get some kind of discount with the retailers to make it worth their while, and then spend them all rather quickly before they had a chance to drop in value.

Bitcoin is going to have to bootstrap from the rather menial niches it can worm its way into for a long time because the cost of acquiring Bitcoin and the volatility is not going away anytime soon.

honestly i expect bitcoin to mature a hole lot in the few month.

next year or two or three, digital cash online will no long be vaperware, till will have been tried tested and true, it will begin its take over internet commerce. it will be recognized as a new type of global digital currency. new laws will be past.

things have changed
things are changing
things will change

bitcoin