Topic: What do you think will happen in the next 4 Months??!?? - page 2. (Read 3044 times)

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

If in December the block reward happens and there isn't a spike there could be some aggressive selling if the exchange rate starts to dip below these levels (at 2X the "stable" $5 range).

The metric to watch is how well bitcoin gains traction in its niches where it does well -- as a currency for online gambling, as a decent way for transferring money across borders, and yes -- as a currency used for "investing" in a new way, whether that be GLBSE cyber-equities or in a ponzi-like scheme.

Here's the daily diary for that metric:
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

What that chart doesn't show is what the value of the currency needs to be to support the economic activity for all these niches and other uses of bitcoin.  

It is entirely possible that 90% of the value comes from speculation and just 10% is actually needed to support the level of the economy that exists now.  So bitcoin's economic value today might be just $1.   So even if that economic activity goes up 3X, that brings the value only to $3, still well below today's $10.

The reason there is such speculation though is that if it is plausible that in a year there could be 3X current demand, could it be plausible a year after it would be 30X?   Or even later reach 300X (or more) versus current demand?   So there is a rational reason to explain fthe price premium each bitcoin carries today.

But nobody knows.  It is simply pure speculation.  But if you were to project out four months from now how many transactions each day occur and the average "output less change" for each transaction, then you could then make an educated guess about a price range that would likely be in the right ballpark.

I don't think the block reward halving will make that big difference as many believes because the monetary inflation in percent has been decreasing all the time and is already down to 7% per quarter. The supply at the exchanges is much bigger than the daily mined coins so I believe the increasing demand for bitcoins is much more important than the reward halving.

Period   Totalt BTC     Increase in percent
Q1 2009   656250   
Q2 2009   1312500     100 %
Q3 2009   1968750     50 %
Q4 2009   2625000     33 %
Q1 2010   3281250     25 %
Q2 2010   3937500     20 %
Q3 2010   4593750     17 %
Q4 2010   5250000     14 %
Q1 2011   5906250     13 %
Q2 2011   6562500     11 %
Q3 2011   7218750     10 %
Q4 2011   7875000     9 %
Q1 2012   8531250     8 %
Q2 2012   9187500     8 %
Q3 2012   9843750     7 %
Q4 2012   10500000     7 %
Q1 2013   10828125     3 %
Q2 2013   11156250     3 %
Q3 2013   11484375     3 %
Q4 2013   11812500     3 %

coinbase is working on insuring bitcoin deposits at their site.

This is a major problem. We need to lobby for legislation forming a Bitcoin oversight board and to protect people we need to form an FDIC for bitcoin owners so that moral hazard develops and increases inefficiency. All in the name of make work to create jobs.

...

Last year, there were a few hackings and thefts and people said OMG sell now, they're not secure.  And the media considered it fireworks.

This year everyone realizes that hacking and theft only happens when precautions aren't taken.  Plus, paper wallets are easy to print, people realize to keep their bitcoins in "cold storage", and the occasional thefts don't even register as blips on the news anymore.

The five months of price stability and the media reporting that "Silk Road" is booming is making the world take notice that, if nothing else, Bitcoin functions as advertised.

I have been sitting and looking at how bitcoin has expanded in the course of the last 8 months and I have watched it grow and watch the bubble pop.  I have seen technology grow and the user base grow.  I have seen people embrace bitcoin and I have seen people take advantage of it and its users.


I know that there maybe a few dozen posts on this, but I wanted to get my 2 cents out there and see if someone can give me another perspective on my train of though.


So what does everyone thing what will happen in the next 4 months??

• We have the reward block coming soon, that will halve the coins per block from 50 to 25
• Butterfly Labs will be releasing their new system on or about Oct.
• With that new hardware, I believe that the difficulty will spike quickly.  Do you think it will increase Ten, Fifty, Hundred Fold or will casual users give up and make the difficulty go back down?
• Will the price of coins adjust higher to reflect the lower coins per block and this new difficulty

Do think think that bitcoin will hits its peak in the new year and fail or will it wane and then come back stronger?


-Elrodvoss