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Topic: What if mining suddenly becomes unprofitable for most miners? - page 4. (Read 7084 times)

hero member
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Difficulty-adjustments will ensure that in the event of miners shutting down the difficulty goes down as well and mining profitability will increase again.

Yes - but the adjustments don't happen immediately - and especially down adjustments will happen slowly.

This is only an issue if a large amount of mining power is switched off at the same time. If the mining power is halved at the start of a new difficulty-cycle, it'll take 4 weeks for a downward adjustment, which is long, but still reasonable. And an instant 50% reduction of mining power is absurd outside of catastrophic incidents.

Like I said before, existing miners won't be turned off anytime soon. And when they are finally turned off, old, less efficient miners, which will have a lower hashrate are turned off first, making any potential difficulty drop rather smooth.

Scrypt alt-coins are far more susceptible, since they're at the mercy of profit-switchers moving large amounts of hashing power from one coin to the other. SHA-256 alts can be merge-mined with BTC if they have been setup for it, so they're more protected.
legendary
Activity: 1666
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Difficulty-adjustments will ensure that in the event of miners shutting down the difficulty goes down as well and mining profitability will increase again.

Yes - but the adjustments don't happen immediately - and especially down adjustments will happen slowly.

That's a reasonably good scenario for the Death of Bitcoin. It happened to Namecoin, prices fell faster than the difficulty could adjust making it decades till the difficulty would catch up. They barely limped to the next adjustment to use merged mining.
zby
legendary
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Difficulty-adjustments will ensure that in the event of miners shutting down the difficulty goes down as well and mining profitability will increase again.

Yes - but the adjustments don't happen immediately - and especially down adjustments will happen slowly.
hero member
Activity: 2576
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Difficulty-adjustments will ensure that in the event of miners shutting down the difficulty goes down as well and mining profitability will increase again.

Exactly. Eventually the hardware will catch up with Moore's law and mining will be run by big corporations with access to cheap electricity and large data centres.

Bitcoin's future isn't related to the profitability of miners any more than gold's future is linked the to profitability Goldcorp etc. It is linked to wider adoption and the possibility that something better will come along.
hero member
Activity: 728
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It is quite possible that at this rate it suddenly outgrows the profitability level for most miners and if they decide to switch off the mining rigs - then bitcoin transfers become slow. This can undermine the bitcoin system causing the price to drop and lowering the mining profitability even more forcing people to switch off further rigs.

Mining with already produced hardware only becomes unprofitable if the electricty costs outweigh the income from mining and for ASICs (which make up the vast majority of the network), this is not even remotely the case yet.

What may happen is that the difficulty growth will slow down considerably as buying new hardware become less and less appealling, but as long as the network hashrate doesn't collapse all of the sudden there's no problem (a gradual decrease isn't an issue either).

Difficulty-adjustments will ensure that in the event of miners shutting down the difficulty goes down as well and mining profitability will increase again.
hero member
Activity: 699
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Your Minion
zby
legendary
Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
I never followed mining too closely - but the difficulty grows like crazy

It is quite possible that at this rate it suddenly outgrows the profitability level for most miners and if they decide to switch off the mining rigs - then bitcoin transfers become slow. This can undermine the bitcoin system causing the price to drop and lowering the mining profitability even more forcing people to switch off further rigs.

In 2011 the system proved to be quite robust against price drops - many miners did not switch off immediately after the price made mining unprofitable - and the system was maybe slow at some point but not catastrophically so - but this time it might be different with the difficulty explosion.
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