Obvious scam is obvious.
someone once said 'all models are wrong, but some are useful' 
Topic: What is a math model worth that predicts BTC's next ATH with incredible accuracy - page 2. (Read 503 times)
February 08, 2021, 07:01:28 AM
February 08, 2021, 05:51:55 AM
Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. ...
Generating models and testing them against the data until you find one that fits is called "p-hacking". It doesn't matter how many variables there are and whether they are tuned or not. How many models did you try before you "discovered" this one? If the answer is more than 1, then that is p-hacking and you can't use the same data to validate your model.
The issue is that if you derive the hypothesis for the model from the data, then you cannot use the data to prove the hypothesis. It is called "begging the question", which is a kind of circular reasoning. It doesn't mean that your model is wrong. I means that you have absolutely no evidence that it is correct.
I don't think you fully understand what I have developed, without giving to much info away all I can really say from now on is watch the first turning point what happens at the levels below. IF it does not do what I say within 1% forget me forever. I am not a scammer just wrong, the model is broken and the highs it predicts will also most likely be null and void (an important note, there could be an exchange in USD that I have not analysed that does the interim turning point ie for the 2017 ATH Coinmarketcap.com $20088.99 99.74% accurate, not all will be +99% accurate, just one needs to be, its not a wiggle out, just how it seemed to work last 2 cycles, though it could surprise me, so I have included coinmarketcap.com also)
"AS PROOF THE MODEL EXISTS
The model also predicts that at a price of just over $71K, a corrective pullback to AT LEAST the $57K range will happen, a -20% pullback at a minimum.
PRICE PREDICTION FOR INITIAL/INTRUM PULLBACK (please allow a +/- 1% deviation):
BINANCE $71,996
BRAVE NEW COIN BLX $71,924
BITSTAMP $71,777
BITFINEX $71,477
edit: Coinmarketcap.com $73,240
The model then predicts a blow off top price high for the CURRENT bull run of: $XXX,XXX, I will not disclose that yet..."
February 07, 2021, 02:01:09 PM
...but am very interested on what full disclosure of the mathematical model would be worth to a billion dollar institution, or private individual as Bitcoin holders are a diverse bunch now. Or as my model indicates me to believe, in a very short time Bitcoin will have a multiple trillion dollar market cap. What is that worth?
If you are planning to sell it then I hope that you have at least patented it so that they cannot claim the work is theirs.
But anyway, imagine the hypothetical scenario where the organization who buys your model uses it to buy coins right ahead of the predicted spike, and then sell them at the peak. Greediness like what they would do is enough to disrupt the mechanics of any prediction model, because when someone thinks they know what the outcome can be and then takes steps to modify a variable that depends on those outcomes (here the outcome is the price prediction and we are "modifying" the price by longing BTC strategically) they actually end up changing the first outcome.
February 07, 2021, 01:44:20 PM
Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. ...
Generating models and testing them against the data until you find one that fits is called "p-hacking". It doesn't matter how many variables there are and whether they are tuned or not. How many models did you try before you "discovered" this one? If the answer is more than 1, then that is p-hacking and you can't use the same data to validate your model.
The issue is that if you derive the hypothesis for the model from the data, then you cannot use the data to prove the hypothesis. It is called "begging the question", which is a kind of circular reasoning. It doesn't mean that your model is wrong. I means that you have absolutely no evidence that it is correct.
February 07, 2021, 04:48:33 AM
Like all such models, it is worth absolutely nothing minus the value of the time it takes someone to realise that fact. Anyone interested in your model should ask you to pay them to examine your model, or else they're getting ripped off. 
I would be willing to fly almost anywhere in the world to the right person who could verify the math's and model.
February 07, 2021, 03:25:28 AM
Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. A little like the coin miners reward is sequential in its reduction 50, 25, 12 1/2, etc. the halving changes the sequential variable. It just doesn't predict the high, but has proven to be accurate with the absolute recorded in USD spike high. It is a math's that is encrypted in the price, the halving changes ONLY one variable.
February 06, 2021, 06:30:25 PM
The model predicted price high for 2013: $1,239.43. Actual 2013 high Mt Gox $1,241.92, Cryptocompare.com, 99.79% accurate
The model predicted price high for 2017: $20,038.41. Actual 2017 high $20,088.99 Coinmarketcap.com, 99.63% accurate
The model predicted price high for 2017: $20,038.41. Actual 2017 high $20,088.99 Coinmarketcap.com, 99.63% accurate
When did you create your model?
Did you create it prior to 2013 and it has been validated twice? Or, did you create it recently and use backtesting to tune it? If it is the latter, then you really have nothing of any value. You can't use backtesting to validate a model created with backtesting.
February 06, 2021, 02:19:58 PM
Obvious scam is obvious.
February 06, 2021, 02:08:30 PM
Issue is what is the model worth not who am I, bro
February 06, 2021, 02:04:57 PM
...boast...linking..., if that was true and I forever remain anonymous where is the boasting. If I come out and full disclosure of model and person and the model is not true where is my boasting. But if I come out and show it is true and who I am I can never go back into anonymity, and I currently put a great deal of value on that. But valid a critique, understandable.
Bro you can stay anonymous like Sahoshi
History textbooks will call you you "BTC-Predictive-Spike-High from bitcointalk.org". February 06, 2021, 12:03:14 PM
...boast...linking..., if that was true and I forever remain anonymous where is the boasting. If I come out and full disclosure of model and person and the model is not true where is my boasting. But if I come out and show it is true and who I am I can never go back into anonymity, and I currently put a great deal of value on that. But valid a critique, understandable.
February 06, 2021, 11:47:42 AM
Firstly, the model exists, and I have given you the results for 2013 and 2017, they are true, however unbelievable, this is not made up. Secondly how many people know about the PLAN B prediction of 288K, and then will act on it. Surely the peak will be just under 288K with that logic, it is the most well known, its been published for almost 2 years and revised last year. Unless main stream media takes hold of it during the mania phase, as almost all people will forget about it having the attention span of a goldfish, it will not be relevant for the most but only a few. If as I have explained before the model predicts a price and therefore market cap number in the trillions of dollars, and say I can have an influence on say 10 Billion dollars (if I don't publish it but rather sell it to one whale) at the peak that is only enough to move the market a few $10's of dollars. For that person/whale/institution who does not want to hold their full bag during the next bear market, what is the fair value?
OK get as specific as you can on what you can disclose and when that happens you can boast everywhere linking people to this thread and sell your thing.
February 06, 2021, 11:33:21 AM
Firstly, the model exists, and I have given you the results for 2013 and 2017, they are true, however unbelievable, this is not made up. Secondly how many people know about the PLAN B prediction of 288K, and then will act on it. Surely the peak will be just under 288K with that logic, it is the most well known, its been published for almost 2 years and revised last year. Unless main stream media takes hold of it during the mania phase, as almost all people will forget about it having the attention span of a goldfish, it will not be relevant for the most but only a few. If as I have explained before the model predicts a price and therefore market cap number in the trillions of dollars, and say I can have an influence on say 10 Billion dollars (if I don't publish it but rather sell it to one whale) at the peak that is only enough to move the market a few $10's of dollars. For that person/whale/institution who does not want to hold their full bag during the next bear market, what is the fair value?
February 06, 2021, 11:30:35 AM
Like all such models, it is worth absolutely nothing minus the value of the time it takes someone to realise that fact. Anyone interested in your model should ask you to pay them to examine your model, or else they're getting ripped off.
Yep, code review is a favor. 
February 06, 2021, 11:15:04 AM
Like all such models, it is worth absolutely nothing minus the value of the time it takes someone to realise that fact. Anyone interested in your model should ask you to pay them to examine your model, or else they're getting ripped off.
Haha
That was hillarious.I partly agree, but didn't the Winklevoss twins do something similar with Zuckerberg and their idea for Facebook, we all know what happened. People routinely exploit inventors because of their oftentimes need for affirmation, as they normally don't fit in with the general population. This naiveté is often exploited. Ok thanks for your input.
Tell me one thing, what's the use of such model even if it exists (although it doesn't). Assuming that the model would predict the ATH 99% accurately (well that's funny too
)wouldn't it make the traders aware and then they will just start selling their coins right before the ATH. Hence a big sell would occur right before the predicted ATH.
Hence the ATH the model predicted would fail to be accurate. Hence it's just a waste of time.
It's like time travelling to the past and changing something which eventually changes all the course of events from that point till date.
February 06, 2021, 10:48:51 AM
OK so we are 1 for priceless 3 for worthless.
February 06, 2021, 10:42:51 AM
It would be priceless as you could always be ahead in trading. But it's impossible, as you can't predict when Elon Must will tweet or not 
Your 'predictions' are biased from result-oriented thinking.
Your 'predictions' are biased from result-oriented thinking.
February 06, 2021, 10:41:49 AM
Are you aware the model has 2 predictions one I have made public, that is the interim turning point, there I have a 1% deviation. Because I know there is a great deal of mistrust I have published that result, which after BTC turns at that point the second $xxx,xxx figure becomes the next objective. I have a 2% standard deviation for that prediction. As it is a laser point of data projected almost 4 years in advance (I am anticipating when the peak to peak occurs or thereabouts) from 2-3 years ago, the further you go out the smallest deviation has up until now been well within 1% for the absolute published spike highs. I would love nothing more than to spill the beans to a reputable creditable personality who could verify the model, but these people are insulated by layers of security, hence I have started to graft at the grass roots level. However I appreciate your feedback.
February 06, 2021, 10:20:24 AM
I am quite sure that movements in the cryptocurrency market, especially not general ones, but more specific ones for a short period of time, are impossible to predict. Now millions of people are involved in this market, many of them do not know how the cryptocurrency market works and perform absolutely illogical actions and no program can predict them. Therefore, I don’t believe in such a program and its capabilities with an acceptable error of plus or minus one percent.
February 06, 2021, 08:27:27 AM
I didn't believe it also at first, and don't know what to do with it, it would send shockwaves through the BTC world, of that I am sure. I don't feel it wise to open source it yet. I kind of feel it is similar and as significant as PLAN B's model. IMO. So nothing. Ok thanks for your input.
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