Topic: What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ? (Read 407 times)

Thanks for the simulations and the CSV data

It is interesting that your AI generated script is a whole bit longer than my manually written one, haha. But it functionally is identic.

The results don't surprise me too much, although the 2020 timeframe is more bullish than I had thought

I'd guess a probability between 5 and 20% is realistic until the end of 2024, so on a whole I think this approach makes sense. The 100k are not impossible but not too likely as well. For my own crystal ball, I'd tend more to the higher end of these predictions, because we all know what can happen once euphoria and FOMO starts. 1 in 5 is reasonable thus.

You are also someone who has been in the market long enough to know that no one can predict bitcoin, the future is unpredictable. I don't think anyone can give you the answer you're looking for, but if you just want to listen to people's predictions for the price of bitcoin by the end of this year, I believe most people think the same as you. Everyone, including me, wants bitcoin to hit $100k by the end of this year or as soon as possible because people have been waiting for it for so long. But after all, it's just our expectation and it may or may not happen.

I hope that happens but realistically with the current political turmoil, I don't think we're going to have a bull market this year. I hope bitcoin price will hit $100,000 but if we accept the reality of what is happening then the chances of that happening are very low.

Bitcoin have the capacity to reach 100k before the end of December 2024 this is my predictions about although even at bitcoin have the tendency to reach that price and for that we need to also look out for other aspects and factors that could make such a price benchmark unachievable for bitcoin, because as we predict positive market outcome, we should also expect any possibility of an opposite reaction from the market.

If I may ask us this simple question for clarity sake, do bitcoin have the market liquidity that can propel that price level, whatever your answer is so will the prediction go in that direction also.

Our expectations are high for the upcoming bull market but the market is again slightly decline. But the common purpose behind it is the US presidential election. Regardless of the current situation, many issues are hanging on the outcome of this election. Especially the stage of world politics may change. That is why the price of Bitcoin is now at a stable level. But if the result is not in Trump's favor, Bitcoin may be bearish again. But I think since the expected bull run after the Bitcoin ETF trade and halving has not started yet today or tomorrow Bitcoin will definitely hit the top. With Trump in power at this point, we could see a Bitcoin bull run very quickly. As the election time approaches,  Investors are getting worried.

Enter start date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2020-04-01
Enter end date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2020-10-31
Number of days to simulate: 67
Starting price: 66968
Number of simulations: 420000
Number of simulations reaching $100,000 or more: 96103
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 22.88%

Enter start date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2021-09-01
Enter end date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2022-03-31
Number of days to simulate: 67
Starting price: 66968
Number of simulations: 420000
Number of simulations reaching $100,000 or more: 35948
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 8.56%

Here is the mostly AI/LLM written code with user suggestions, I mean stolen ideas, I mean inspirational ideas  

Here is the csv of historical daily volume weighted average prices from bitstamp that I am working with.  I was lucky enough to get it from a now defunct website, and currently update it using data.bitcoinity.com.  https://pastebin.com/3C67XqKW  

Next changes should be to record the highest and lowest price reached during simulation run.

Thank you!

What we're doing here is basically Monte Carlo simulations, and an user in the German subforum who's quite knowledgeable in financial analysis / stastistics told me the idea isn't that bad ...


I guess this is because in this timeframe we only observe the bullish phase in the 2018-21 cycle. All time history includes also the sharp bear markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and the long crypto winter around 2015.

However, I think if we think that we're currently in a mid-term bullish phase, it is appropiate to chose a bullish timeframe.

Now we can combine the whole idea with Elliot Wave theory, at least with the basics. My theory is that since March 2024 we're currently near the end of a slightly descending bearish phase inside of a larger-scale bull market. In the "bullish five waves" model (see Wikipedia article on the Elliott Wave principle), we can thus say that we're either near the end of wave 2 or wave 4.

We could now insert the data for 2021 corresponding to these waves:

- Wave 2 lasted roughly from June 2019 to March 2020. However, it includes the well known "Covid dip", which we can consider an anomaly and perhaps ignore.
- Wave 4 lasted roughly from May 2021 to September 2021.

Of course we should not use only the bearish data of these timeframes but instead look a little bit "ahead", as I wrote I think we're near the end of the bearish minor wave, but we can't say that for certainty until the 73k are broken again.

So the idea would be the following:

- Analyze the 6 months between January 2020 to June 2020 (end of wave 2, start of wave 3).
- Analyze the 6 months between July 2021 until December 2021 (which already includes a slight part of the bear market which follows).

Another idea is to assume that we have already seen the local bottom (e.g. when the price dipped to 49/50k) of the wave and that we're already inside the following bullish wave. This would mean to analyze, for example:

- the 6 months between April 2020 and October 2020 (I chose April instead of March to avoid the Covid dip)
- the 6 months between September 2021 and March 2022.

I'll later try out myself but if you want of course you (or anyone else) can feed your/their script with the data for these timeframes.

Now is not the time to be negative as we have been increasingly positive in the last day weeks and months.  If it was only one time frame it would be idle talk but I believe in a bull run added by a bull whip which is I mean to say a chain of change leading to larger movements.

  If you are not familiar with a bull whip then dominoes, a series of changes in that way it cant be only one piece.   There is a fair sequence now and a hope of accumulating enough movement to pass the 70k ceiling which has contained BTC for so long this year.

I doubted 100k in 2024 myself but somewhere like now would be where it starts.   I didnt especially  think there's enough time but its dangerous to say that about BTC when it can move so fast.   See if we can maintain the lows of this week as support for higher, that could be a key foot hold.

You are saying that Trump winning the elections will also not be able to push prices to that mark ? That is not correct in my opinion. If he wins the election, we will see a huge jump in bitcoin prices. That might be greater than the past records already set by bitcoin. I do not suggest anyone to invest based on that speculation though. One should invest in bitcoin only if he loves the concept of crypto and thinks that crypto is something that is solving some problems. If bitcoin can remain relevant for long time, it is obvious that the investors will be rewarded.

It can happen but things are harder than you think so people are not too optimistic and a little worried is understandable. You cannot rely on past growth performance to apply to the future, because you need to know that bitcoin is getting bigger and that means growth performance will slow down gradually.
Things have become very different, bitcoin price is much higher and its capitalization has reached trillions of dollars. You cannot expect it to grow 50% or 100% in a short period of time because we are talking about growth in trillions of dollars, not just a few hundred million or a few billion dollars.


Likewise, do you still see bitcoin growing 10x or 20x in the most recent cycles? Simply because it is more mature and the higher the capitalization, the slower the growth rate. That is the law of finance.

How about the US election next month? Could this be the news that we all have been waiting for the price of Bitcoin to move very fast? For me, it could be specially if the one that we thought could be a pro-Bitcoin President will be elected in the White House, again. I wouldn't say that it's taking a long time. I mean, we still have the whole year of 2025 to do that.

And yeah, for sure pumps are here, but we have seen that it is not sustainable in the long run. It could be the trend though, as we have seen, reaching $68k-$69k and then followed by a sudden decline. Now look at the price movement, we gained and I wouldn't be surprised if before the end of the month we will be in the range again.

Everyone must realize that Bitcoin can move very fast. the target price of $100k is very possible to achieve, if the positive trend gradually comes. what is worried by some people who are not sure that it can happen in the near future is the possibility of Bitcoin price moving sideways. therefore Bitcoin may be stronger and there will be not much price movement. and it is very possible that Bitcoin will reach $100k by taking a longer time. a pump with a short time will always be followed by concerns about a decline afterwards. because the highest price position may not have enough strength.

Here we go. 
I went with 68 days again for consistency. 1000000 runs a piece.

15957.38, 2022-11-21 -
67556.71, 2024-10-24
Starting: $66,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 6.27%

Starting: $67,500
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 8.23%

Starting: $69,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 10.61%

3171.72, 2018-12-15 -
67482.75, 2021-11-09
Starting: $66,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 32.64%

Starting: $67,500
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 35.75%

Starting: $69,000
Probability of reaching $100,000 or more: 38.97%
Even more bullish than the all time history! 

I see so many people are pretty pessimistic with BTC reaching $100k mark before the end of 2024, truth is, it could reach that mark within a week if the market is willing.
latest rally should give insight to people that the price could just pump out of the blue. it doesn't need month for BTC to rise from $58k to $69k it just needs few days. just imagine the scenario where the price got pumped not because institutional investors being the one that put massive buy orders but the retailer as well (instead of shorting BTC everytime it reaches higher highs) BTC could easily pull off $100k within a week.

what BTC need is good news, momentum, and hype for it to happen.

Reaching that level has been the aim of a lot of holders and spectators. But before reaching such level, much better to have plans on what you can have in this market. So you are prepared when that period comes. If you are just waiting without doing anything, then, that moment will be useless, right?

Very interesting, thanks to expand the concept!

So even if we almost universally can agree that the stretch from September 22 to October 23 (2024 of course) was a quite bullish one, it was still significantly more bearish than the whole development of the Bitcoin price in the last 12 years, as your probabilities are about 5 times higher than mine ...

Of course it would be interesting to have some intermediate values. My "short timespan" is perhaps too short as it is only a single "bullish leg", while your 12 year timespan is perhaps too long because it includes the wild swings of 2010-13 when the price could increase 20% in a single day without problems

The ideal list of values would be perhaps the series since the 2022 low of 15,500. If you can load them into your script I'd be interested in the results (Otherwise I may search for the data and feed them into my script. I've used a short timespan because I was compiling the list manually, but of course it can be modified to load CSV files.

Another idea would be to use the complete run from late 2018 to late 2021, to have data about "a full Bull market" with already lower volatility than in Bitcoin's early days.

Most likely we might not reach a new all time high at the end of this month. Although there are a lot of promises when we hit $69k and I thought that it might continue to go and maybe at least $70k. But it was too much as the market goes on another correction.

I'm also on the same belief as you, the US presidential election could be a good catalyst and who knows, there are prediction that if Trump wins, the market could at least be very well on the $90k-$92k price. But let's get get excited here, 2-3 week if I'm not mistaken before the US election. And we can only hope for the best that whoever will win, it might trigger a huge parabolic rise for the market.

We are still in the positive side if I'm not mistaken, but still very far from the bull run that we are expecting. Nevertheless, as we have seen we have a new all time high before the halving because of the hype on Bitcoin ETF.

And this could have disrupted the cycle flow of Bitcoin in my opinion. That's why it will take some time for us to reach a new all time high. The highest we got is $70k, that is the closest so far. Again, might hard to see how the flow will go this year or this bull run.

But there are still plenty of time for us to reach $100k, but I do not see it happening at the end of 2024.

Very true! Bitcoin has been on a downtrend . . . . . . . . . . . for about 5 days! as per your screenshot
Since 2009 Bitcoin has been on an uptrend and it continues today, we dont need a 5 day snapshot
of a chart to see this.

It was said back in in day Bitcoin wouldnt hit

$10 - but it did in 2012
&100 - but it did in 2013
$1,000 - but it did in 2017
$10,000 - but it did in 2017
$50,000 - but it did in 2021

MeGold666 there is a trend here - can you spot it?

I'll make a prediction just now.
If Bitcoin somehow surpass its previous ATH of around $73,000 by the end of this month, I believe that we will see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of this year. If that doesn't happen then it will not reach it.

The results of the USA election might have some effect towards the price movement of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin during the month of December tends to be bullish for most of the time. The reality is that there are no catalysts right now that can push the price of Bitcoin up towards the $100,000 price. There is no good news, there are no events that could push the price of Bitcoin up. We know that there's always a chance for everything especially with cryptocurrency, but right now, the chance of this to happen will be low. I will be surprised if it will be reaching 6 digits this year.

October is coming to an end and I'm not so sure the end of this month will be closed very well by Bitcoin. maybe we will still be around the current price range, or at least close to the previous ATH.
regarding the end of the year, we all hope for an increase, but don't expect it to reach $100k. if the market growth can be maintained with this trend until the beginning of the year, maybe Q1 next year we will still be in a bull trend. so it is very possible that we will reach $100k in the next period, not this year.