Topic: What is the probability of bitcoin reaching $100000 mark before end of 2024 ? - page 2. (Read 397 times)

There is always a chance that we can see the real bull run begin and price to reach $100k which is not a hard thing because it is very close. $100k is only about 40% above the previous ATH.

But the problem is that we have very volatile couple of months ahead of us regarding the economy. The global tensions are rising and there is an election in the US which can get violent if Trump doesn't win! similar to what happened last time he lost.
There is also the problem with the energy market and the interest rates/inflation. For example oil market has been going crazy over the past 2 months. It crashed to $69 / barrel then soared high as $80 and then came down to $73 and is rising back up to $75+ again! That's a highly volatile and unstable market that can get much worse if tensions grow more specially in West Asia (oil rich region). That means higher inflation and they could raise interest rates again which could crash bitcoin price even if the bull run begins.

So my answer to your question is the chances are low. The uncertainty that this kind of economic situation creates discourages people from making such investments into something like bitcoin.

That's cool!  double edit: I happen to have just done the wrong thing.  I tracked what the price would be on Jan 1. Oopsie.  

Using a list of the last 12 years, and one day left on my cursor trial. There are a few days of missing data in the early years.  In those few cases I just repeated the price (volume weighted daily average) for no gain or loss.

I totally stole your idea, but decided to use percent change from day to day and randomly pick from that list.

edit: With much more probably less relevant input I went with 1,000,000 runs for each.  ATQ = actual thread question.  Quite the historically bullish investment we have here.
With 10,000 simulations, probability starting from $66,000: 17.73 % on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 17.42 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ  25.02% before Jan 1, 2025

start price to 67,500: 19.82 % on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 19.55 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ 28.17 % before Jan 1, 2025


start price to 69,000: 22.35%  on Jan 1, 2025
1,000,000 21.76 % on Jan 1, 2025

ATQ 31.21 % before Jan 1, 2025

Edit 3: Now this makes sense at least.
Now for all the marbles (not really)  1 million runs, 68 days, starting price $100,000: 68.64%

They say the biggest reason why the market is bullish right now is the "Bitcoin Spot ETF," which is driving institutional investors into the market. At the moment, we’re already seeing bullish momentum. If we compare this movement to past bull runs, hitting $100k seems possible, especially since the new ATH would be above $73k, which is pretty close to that target. And you’re right, the holiday season is also a big factor. That's why most of the previous bull runs happened during the last quarter of the year, with peak prices usually reached between December and January.

Unlikely. Compared to other price points that were expected before (like 50k, 60k) 100k is something new to the market. I highly doubt it'd move towards something like that in just the span of 2 months. And to roughly get to 100k, counting from 70k, we'd need 40% ish price increase in 2 months, not to mention that 40% is pretty much all ATH for the market.

And just saying, even if it did, I reckon it'd just pop like immediately. Drop down to 80k, maybe 70k back even. If that was the case I'd much rather let it wait for a few more months really.

Bitcoin movement now is very unpredictable because it is different than few years ago. Even if Bitcoin doesn't have a high percentage to increase to $100k, the chance will still be there as Bitcoin can jump suddenly. We can only predict and guess what will happen to Bitcoin but we don't know the real.

I only think that rather than think about Bitcoin in the end of 2024, it is better we prepare ourselves by accumulate more Bitcoin. If Bitcoin really increase to $100,000 in the end of 2024, we are ready to take profit. But if not, we can wait for more and continue accumulate because the correction will comes many times.

There is a good chance but I am not looking forward to the end of this year seeing Bitcoin at that price. But I wish to be wrong and that's because I hope that price will happen by the end of the year.

Holiday seasons are happening globally but before that, let's see how this US elections are going to impact the month of November. We'll probably get some shed of light from there if fate is going to be what everyone thinks by the eoy or, there won't be that much impact at all. But it's true that every holiday season, people have more money and bonuses to spend on. But I guess that many will wise up and will buy bitcoin instead.

This can be done better than just by guessing

We can ask: if the price moved very similarly to the daily movements in the last month or so, how likely is it to reach 100.000$?

I took the price movements between September 22 and October 23, 2024 from investing.com, fed them into a Python script and calculated the probability to reach $100,000 parting from a start price of $66,000 in 68 days (those missing until December 31, 2024: the remaining 7 days in October, 30 for November and 31 for December).

With 10,000 simulations, I got the following probability starting from $66,000: 3,62 %

I wondered if changing the start price to 67,500 would change the probability. And yes it did, at least a bit: 4,77 %

If we change the start price to 69,000, it increased to 7,18%, so it almost doubled compared to a $66k start price.

---

A bit more info about how this script worked: It's actually quite simple:

- Create a list of the daily price changes from Sept. 22 to Oct. 23. Each item has the same probability.
- With the python function random.choice(), you can select a random element from that list.
- Now you start at day 0 with the start price. Each day, you apply the random price increase from the list mentioned before. Then you walk through the days of the simulation (68) repeating this process.
- If until the end of this simulation the price has reached $100,000 you increase a counter by 1.
- The result is the number of the counter divided by the number of simulations. For example, when I did 10k simulations starting at 66k, in 362 of them it reached $100k, so the probability is 3,62%.

before we talking about $100k by the end of the year, we should talk about BTC breakthrough its ATH, because as far as I know, it's gonna be huge supply zone that might hinder BTC from going up for some time.

when we talk about price we talk about how realistic the target is from the recent price action, so far, BTC is having retracement after touching resistance at $69k - $70k, the market seems about to make some big retracement back to $60k, but I could be wrong if the price suddenly bounced back again, so for now, $100k just seems too hard IMO, the problem is, retailer just keep shorting around BTC's peak including many of small whales, if you observe open interest, there's always big chunk of short being made whenever BTC about to go $70k.

so I won't be too hopeful on hoping BTC reach $100k by the end of the year.

The probability definitely lower than 50% because if we look at the trend of the market for past years, yes the last quarter of the year is always bullish but certainly a 30% plus movement now is not something I see bitcoin can achieve in less three months. This is because the volatility of the market is decreasing as the year goes, in the past it’s an easy movement but not now, even when the bitcoin etf hype happens hit it took a longer time to actually get such a percentage movement.

Yes bitcoin has always been associated with the world economy just that it is looking more like it now because of the social media platforms that hype each of the situations to create either FOMO or FUD, but overall bitcoin is dependent on demand and supply which is affected by the economic situation of the each investor

I don't know if it my memory that is too fast but I think I remember something like this have been discussed before somewhere around this forum, but since none that have commented mentioned a link it may be that my brain is too fast and thinking things ahead, we let discussed the topic proper.
Bitcoin have the potential of reaching 100k before the month of December and for sure we are going to see alot of run up to that price within this remaining days of the year, it will be a price rolacoster movement and for sure we can predict such price benchmark achievement in this period of time, because bitcoin have shown all the indications of reaching that milestone in the past months of this year, so for sure finishing up and leveling up to the $100kBTC price is much on sight.

But then since we are just specualtive and positively expecting bitcoin to achieve that milestone, we should also be prepared to meet alot of market volitility and resistance along the way, and alot of picnic selling will force the price of bitcoin to sharply dropped anytime within this period, but we can be rest assured that, the price will always correct back each time such market deep happens in this period, so let expect anything to happen along the line and if care is not taking we may also fail to achieve such price as 100k since bitcoin is highly unpredictable.

The only inevitable thing in life is that we will die someday.

What happens if Trump wins and what happens if Harris wins? In my opinion, the election results could impact bitcoin but not as much as many people think. If you look back at history, no matter which party's candidate becomes president we're still going to have a bull run and bitcoin is still going to hit new ATH, I don't think this time will be any different.

In the long run, the health of the economy will determine everything. If it really recovers and enters a growth phase, we will have the expected bull season. And if things suddenly get worse after the election, don't get your hopes up.
Bitcoin will hit 100,000, it's inevitable but no one knows when it will happen.

The US election states Trump won this there will be movement towards bitcoin because regulation will be easier? is that what Trump promised?

It doesn't matter if it doesn't reach $100K this year the upside potential will be even greater next year just don't give up hope... Bitcoin will still follow the previous cycle that I am sure of.

Before end of 2024? Hm that still 50/50 or maybe lower I guess because the price is not yet reach $70k or $80k. But if the price can reach on that price and even reach $90k in the next month, maybe that can lift the price to reach $100k in the end of 2024.

But that will depends on how good the market situation because crypto market now is not just depend on what happen to the crypto but also affect with the world situation. Maybe in December the price gets more correction and makes the price down deeper. But the price can also have a chance to increase and start the bull run.

It doesn't matter, but for me it comes down to one thing, the result of the elections can make the price go wherever you want, far beyond the moon, or drop in price, if things go in BTC's favor, $100k is achievable for me this year, if not next year with more certainty. There are predictions everywhere, wherever we look there are very bullish predictions, it would be a great December to see BTC at $100k.

It's hard to predict the future, of course investors' expectations are to $100K before the end of the year, even I myself will win.
I think after the US election ends, it will also have an impact on the bitcoin market not only ETFs and the holiday season, because it is a hot election now between the pros of bitcoin and the cons.

Yes it is very hard to say right now if bitcoin price will reach 100K by the end of this year, it is very difficult to reach 100K by this year, our year is not too late, currently bitcoin price is 66K, but still we can't say anything for sure. As the market always depends on unpredictable factors, it is very likely that Bitcoin price will reach a new milestone next year. And there is a possibility that we will see 100K next year, but probably we may not see 100k this year.

But we should not worry too much about its price, we should think about long-term Bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin will definitely reach $100K- $200K- $500K- $1M at some point according to its own movement, but if we are not fully prepared now to take advantage of that time, then you won't get anything from here. so buy Bitcoin and think of it as a long term holding, don't worry too much about the price, just focus on the holding, only then you can enjoy the profits when Bitcoin is worth $100K- $200K- $500K- $1M.

Unfortunately, ZERO. It's been on a downtrend, and the pump momentum is over. I don't believe it will ever reach a $100K valuation.
It's all about AI these days; Bitcoin is old news.

The only possible way it could pump is if it was used more often for regular transactions, but it has major scalability issues.
$100K is only possible with a scalable solution, like Monero.

This thread definitely needs to be moved to the SPECUALATION board to join all the other $100k threads
Nobody can accurately answer this question, its just speculation based on current data which doesnt
guarantee anything.

Road to 100k?

100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge

To what level will Bitcoin fall after reaching $100K (or higher)?

Potential for BTC to cross $100K in the future !

Hard to say something accurately about that situation since there's no guarantee of every speculation said. But if that event would gonna happen then for sure that everyone of us would be happy especially if we are holding bitcoin for future use. But to be honest the chance is slim for that price milestone to reached since as of know the bullish movement is questionable and I think there's lots of factor stopping the price of this coin to grow at that figure. But next year provably there's huge chance that bitcoin would cross to that price level if there's no major bad events will happen that can able to contribute to trigger a long bearish run.