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Topic: What sort of effect to expect on price w/ China news? (Read 3152 times)

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002

Don't the Chinese like Linux?

Perhaps the Linux users self identify as Windows so as to not stand out.  I would do the same if I knew my internet traffic was scrutinized as closely as theirs is.

really ? will you run windows version on linux ?

Those stats are based on the brower's user agent, not which OS the bitcoin executable is compiled for.  That looks like the stats for one specific file, not the whole project.  Since the Windows numbers are so high, I'd guess it's the exe, not the tar.gz.

Linux downloads are tough to get a count of since many people get it from their distro and many compile it themselves from git.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
a wolf in sheeps clothing. suckerfish
ya millions of people learning about bitcoins.... ya that will have zero effect on the price .... not a damn thing will change!!!  Roll Eyes

It will, but not sooner than next month.

no i think a slow trickle than a major poor. no i dont think it willhappen overnight or over week but in two weeks we should see the outcome if any.
legendary
Activity: 1441
Merit: 1000
Live and enjoy experiments
legendary
Activity: 1441
Merit: 1000
Live and enjoy experiments
Where do you get the idea that the Chinese government 'embraces' bitcoin?

Is it because CCTV, a state owned media outlet, broadcast a special covering BTC? If that is the case, then I would say it is too early to determine what the government's stance is on BTC, but from every perspective I look at it, the government would be against it.

CCTV's censors might not fully understand BTC and allowed the special to air as the censors are probably told what type of material to censor and cryptocurrency is certainly a new enough topic that the people in charge of broadcast might not have known any better, on the flip side they might fully understand BTC and the government really might have given the go-ahead, but I really doubt this.
+1.

There's just no way a totalitarian government will like or endorse Bitcoin.

On the other hand, they understand the power of technology, nowadays they are much more tolerant toward non-political matters, fearing being cut off from the rest of the world.

It will be very interesting to see the role Bitcoin will play in this no-black-and-white-everything-is-gray society.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.

I don't see a conspiracy.  I simply state that between two scenarios I find it more likely that market manipulation explains these 23k (now 32k) of downloads.  Market manipulation can't be simply defined as a conspiracy - it's a fact of life in any market.

If all those downloads are one guy with a possibly good (for his bitcoin trading position) idea, that's simple.  If it's 32k individual people - whose OS choice statistics, I note, are rather... ummm... skewed - that's quite complex.  Simplicity wins over complexity.

* shrug *  Give it awhile.  We'll be able to see clients popping up in China any day now, right?  If they do...

You have a very, very odd way of thinking. No offense.

None taken.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.

I don't see a conspiracy.  I simply state that between two scenarios I find it more likely that market manipulation explains these 23k (now 32k) of downloads.  Market manipulation can't be simply defined as a conspiracy - it's a fact of life in any market.

If all those downloads are one guy with a possibly good (for his bitcoin trading position) idea, that's simple.  If it's 32k individual people - whose OS choice statistics, I note, are rather... ummm... skewed - that's quite complex.  Simplicity wins over complexity.

* shrug *  Give it awhile.  We'll be able to see clients popping up in China any day now, right?  If they do...

You have a very, very odd way of thinking. No offense.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.

Ya, he takes occam's razor and uses it exactly how it shouldn't be used.


What's more likely? A few million people watching an item about Bitcoin and a small % is interested and downloads a Bitcoin client
or
It's a bot.

Occam's razor obviously says the first option.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.

I don't see a conspiracy.  I simply state that between two scenarios I find it more likely that market manipulation explains these 23k (now 32k) of downloads.  Market manipulation can't be simply defined as a conspiracy - it's a fact of life in any market.

If all those downloads are one guy with a possibly good (for his bitcoin trading position) idea, that's simple.  If it's 32k individual people - whose OS choice statistics, I note, are rather... ummm... skewed - that's quite complex.  Simplicity wins over complexity.

* shrug *  Give it awhile.  We'll be able to see clients popping up in China any day now, right?  If they do...
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
I have the strong feeling the price is gonna rise to about 350. It's my personal assumption based some very basic and noobish TA (thanks Arepo for pointing me to learn).

To stay on the safe side, I'd say 300. And not related to the China effect.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

occam's razor implies a conspiracy theory? i don't think so.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
Effect? The writing is on the wall: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-04

Yea, I have a hard time wrapping my mind around this, but it happened.

There is not so hard make a bot downloading any software.

Exactly.

There's no captcha at Sourceforge.

There's two kinds of market manipulation:  financial, and psychological.  23k downloads one day - 1.5k the previous day?  Off of one TV show?  I know there's a lot of people in China, and I know they get seroiusly into their money... but still...

Ockham's Razor.  It's much easier to believe somebody is trying to manipulate market sentiment with a download bot.  Really it is.

Uhm haha no it isn't.
full member
Activity: 123
Merit: 100
I don't think this China news will significantly affect the adoption rate or price.   This event reminds me of the Good Wife episode "Bitcoin for Dummies", which aired on January 16th, 2012.  It had a lot of hype leading up to it, but price dropped for months thereafter, and that was when the total daily volume in currency was around $300k USD, not $20M day USD like it is now.

Bitcoin also had front-page articles in WSJ, NYTimes, and most other major news sources during the bubble up, and the price has dropped since then.


The same thing happened before the first bitcoin conference.
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
I don't think this China news will significantly affect the adoption rate or price.   This event reminds me of the Good Wife episode "Bitcoin for Dummies", which aired on January 16th, 2012.  It had a lot of hype leading up to it, but price dropped for months thereafter, and that was when the total daily volume in currency was around $300k USD, not $20M day USD like it is now.



Bitcoin also had front-page articles in WSJ, NYTimes, and most other major news sources during the bubble up, and the price has dropped since then.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
Sure, wine not?  Grin
:-) (EDIT: Frozenlock make better bot, what will download linux version too)
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Sure, wine not?  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000

Don't the Chinese like Linux?

Perhaps the Linux users self identify as Windows so as to not stand out.  I would do the same if I knew my internet traffic was scrutinized as closely as theirs is.

really ? will you run windows version on linux ?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002


Don't the Chinese like Linux?

Perhaps the Linux users self identify as Windows so as to not stand out.  I would do the same if I knew my internet traffic was scrutinized as closely as theirs is.
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000

Don't the Chinese like Linux?

Stupid bot :-) ? (doing always same HTTP/GET)
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"


Don't the Chinese like Linux?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
ya millions of people learning about bitcoins.... ya that will have zero effect on the price .... not a damn thing will change!!!  Roll Eyes

It will, but not sooner than next month.
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