Where do you get the idea that the Chinese government 'embraces' bitcoin?
Is it because CCTV, a state owned media outlet, broadcast a special covering BTC? If that is the case, then I would say it is too early to determine what the government's stance is on BTC, but from every perspective I look at it, the government would be against it.
CCTV's censors might not fully understand BTC and allowed the special to air as the censors are probably told what type of material to censor and cryptocurrency is certainly a new enough topic that the people in charge of broadcast might not have known any better, on the flip side they might fully understand BTC and the government really might have given the go-ahead, but I really doubt this.
Topic: What sort of effect to expect on price w/ China news? - page 3. (Read 3153 times)
i think the overall sentiment from Chinese govt. is embracing the bitcoin system. it can only mean more money flowing into their country. we will probably see them being the number one producer/exporter of ASIC technology which means even more incentive for them. i wouldnt doubt if they become the highest percentage of bitcoins hashing power.
Effect? The writing is on the wall: http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-04
Yea, I have a hard time wrapping my mind around this, but it happened.
Yea, I have a hard time wrapping my mind around this, but it happened.
On the plus side, the daily downloads of the Bitcoin client has jumped to nearly 40k in China, the daily search volume for Bitcoin in Baidu (a popular search engine in China) had jumped to 40k+ yesterday, figures don't tell lie and their relevance is determined by how you interpret them. To me, it is a very positive news and should bring the price up to a while, especially on Tuesday when all the hot money finally arrives after the long long bank holidays in Japan.
Regarding your point 4, I want to add that some merchants in Taobao (the Ebay in China) are already accepting Bitcoins, so it is untrue there is no practical use of Bitcoins in China and to grow the market in China, more tv shows and media coverage like that are necessary, people got to know and learn about Bitcoin before embracing it, the show on CCTV is a good start to kick off this whole process.
Regarding your point 4, I want to add that some merchants in Taobao (the Ebay in China) are already accepting Bitcoins, so it is untrue there is no practical use of Bitcoins in China and to grow the market in China, more tv shows and media coverage like that are necessary, people got to know and learn about Bitcoin before embracing it, the show on CCTV is a good start to kick off this whole process.
How much of this is real and how much of it is just hot air causing speculators to temporarily ramp the price before another heavy drop?
Here's my take on China along with many other Asian countries lacking on personal freedoms i.e. Iran/N.Korea/etc :
1. China is not new to the bitcoin market. In fact, all of Asia has been known of bitcoin for a long time, so a large portion of the speculators/investors that were going to be into bitcoin have already entered the market.
2. Even the few investors/speculators that would enter the market still have to wait a good amount of time to transfer money in, and big brother is watching where every yuan is moving, don't be surprised if you see a knock on the door and brought in to answer questions when the government sees your money moving into a BTC exchange.
3. Asians are very big fans of speculative investments, such as buying paintings, antiques, instruments, and such, but bitcoin is purely virtual. I am very skeptical on how much confidence your average Asian investor would have in placing assets into BTC or any crypto for the matter. A question many Asians would ask is why would you invest in BTC vs gold? The idea of a non-tangible commodity is too radical for these Asian consumers and merchants.
4. There is no popular use for BTC in China as in America and Europe. Praise the soul that is brave enough to use SR in Asia. Having a package intercepted containing drugs in Asia isn't the same as it is in America/Europe. You will be sentenced to life in prison or death if caught, why make a risk that stupid when there are plenty of trusted domestic markets that are already established? I don't think majority of Chinese vendors will be willing to accept BTC either as it is a scary concept.
5. Government intervention is highly possible and probable, we've seen in the past with Q-coin that the government has and WILL get involved with an online crypto and FORCE compliance. A decentralized currency would just not fly in China, this is equivalent to painting a bullseye on your back. As an investment it is just not safe, and as a currency, it is virtually worthless.
Overall, I feel that the news coverage made by China on BTC is great for BTC overall as it spreads familiarity, but I don't expect to see as strong of a rally or bull market as when the news of BTC spread across American news outlets. The majority of the rally today can be attributed to speculators pumping their money and buying back into the market under the assumption that news in China of BTC will send the price way up.
We can see just as with the cypress news, that the number of people downloading the BTC client in Spain had little effect on price, at least not so much as speculation... How much of the money that shot the price of BTC up came from Spain? Very little. Just keep that in mind.
Here's my take on China along with many other Asian countries lacking on personal freedoms i.e. Iran/N.Korea/etc :
1. China is not new to the bitcoin market. In fact, all of Asia has been known of bitcoin for a long time, so a large portion of the speculators/investors that were going to be into bitcoin have already entered the market.
2. Even the few investors/speculators that would enter the market still have to wait a good amount of time to transfer money in, and big brother is watching where every yuan is moving, don't be surprised if you see a knock on the door and brought in to answer questions when the government sees your money moving into a BTC exchange.
3. Asians are very big fans of speculative investments, such as buying paintings, antiques, instruments, and such, but bitcoin is purely virtual. I am very skeptical on how much confidence your average Asian investor would have in placing assets into BTC or any crypto for the matter. A question many Asians would ask is why would you invest in BTC vs gold? The idea of a non-tangible commodity is too radical for these Asian consumers and merchants.
4. There is no popular use for BTC in China as in America and Europe. Praise the soul that is brave enough to use SR in Asia. Having a package intercepted containing drugs in Asia isn't the same as it is in America/Europe. You will be sentenced to life in prison or death if caught, why make a risk that stupid when there are plenty of trusted domestic markets that are already established? I don't think majority of Chinese vendors will be willing to accept BTC either as it is a scary concept.
5. Government intervention is highly possible and probable, we've seen in the past with Q-coin that the government has and WILL get involved with an online crypto and FORCE compliance. A decentralized currency would just not fly in China, this is equivalent to painting a bullseye on your back. As an investment it is just not safe, and as a currency, it is virtually worthless.
Overall, I feel that the news coverage made by China on BTC is great for BTC overall as it spreads familiarity, but I don't expect to see as strong of a rally or bull market as when the news of BTC spread across American news outlets. The majority of the rally today can be attributed to speculators pumping their money and buying back into the market under the assumption that news in China of BTC will send the price way up.
We can see just as with the cypress news, that the number of people downloading the BTC client in Spain had little effect on price, at least not so much as speculation... How much of the money that shot the price of BTC up came from Spain? Very little. Just keep that in mind.
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