Topic: What the Effing Hell is Going On!?!?! (Read 1589 times)

I should state the bar size yea, this one is 1hr.    The MA is 50 so that makes it just above 2 days of average price.   Actually not that far above is the monthly average roughly, I always use 50 and 200 I CBA juggling variables




The horizontal lines I barely remember in an exact way myself but its fib levels from a strong move, hence it can prove some relevance later.    Its all maybes, its just a picture to place on the price and decide if we are strong or weak, sometimes the market goes up only to capture more before it continues down.  

I would suggest it should hold this 2 day average, if we are to hope for positive movement.   My first thought is for 10400 to act like a ceiling but lets see how the daily bar forms for today.



Here it is, the first fall from grace and does it echo now or not.  [1 day bar]

When you just post photos of a few candles cut out of a chart along with a grey line or two, I have no clue what to make of it. What is the set up you have used? Are those lines moving averages?  What are the time frames?

Since they day I posted this topic post-parabolic high, it looks like Bitcoin prices are going in the same direction I figured all along. Down! On the long term, I am seeing lower-highs, and lower-lows.   It is playing out a pattern almost identical to the previous post-parabolic.

Following on the super simplistic strategy FTW we have indeed lost this level.   Next is this lower rung to the chaos ladder and this time we have a ceiling of the 8 day average which is just where i measure positive or negative momentum personally.



I think this is a fight for sunday/monday but I dont mind the bet of a short with stop around 8DMA, not usually so neat but worth a try.

I think the reason why it matters so much to holders as well (I mean its obvious why it matters to traders of course) because holders want to see profits in a more psychological way.

I mean yeah sure I don't need double the amount I got in less in a week but when I see my money going 10% up, than 20% down, than 50% up than... well you know how bitcoin moves, that makes people unease of investing into crypto.

I am actually thinking about selling all cryptos I have in order to get out of this market and stay in more legacy investment methods like savings accounts with interest rates or buying known stocks and so forth for couple years to save up for something and than maybe I will go back to this hectic crypto world, I know I may luck out and earn a million dollars out of blue here but I could also just stay at the same price for a year with huge movements in between as well.

Fiat should not be what will matter to you the most, but it should be the amount of bitcoin that you have in your account because that fiat you are talking of may become useless one day and crash beyond recognition. The bubble of money will soon burst and everyone will run to bitcoin then, so it is better you save yourself now by gathering as much as bitcoin that you can gather.

The easiest way to accumulate bitcoin is to always buy at dip, so what should be more of concern to you the opportunity to buy at dip and not the fiat you will get when bitcoin reaches peak. In future, bitcoin will eventually get to the peak that we will get tired of it, because the cost of accumulating it will be quite too high then. I am always happy anytime I see such flash crash because it gives me another chance to buy more.

LOL.  Nice strategy.

That is the thing with them, most of them keeps claiming bitcoin has future, I wonder the future they are talking about, are they talking of tomorrow future which I think that is what many of them mean. They want bitcoin to grow wing like tomorrow and just multiply their investment. Most of these traders are in for the short term investment and does not really care about that future, few of us are just the ones that really want to wait for some years of bitcoin to see the benefit it will Bring to us.

Many of the people you see in the market now will sell their coin any moment that bitcoin gets to $20k, and one of them is op, he is just an FOMOed bitcoiner because he saw the trend bitcoin was moving on then, forgetting that it is impossible for bitcoin to continue on a trend for too long without a reversal of price.

It matters because we wanted to see how the price will grow in the future. That's why people complains when we have like a dip and then majority gets excited when we have this sort of mini-bull run. At the end of the day, investors are going to check their portfolio and see how it does in terms of fiat value.

Nothing wrong with charts, they are only graphics to match numbers.   If I were a genius I could juggle all these numbers in my head and realise a number sequence repeating regularly without drawing anything.
I'm not that clever so I have to be doing it the long hand way.    The candles do look a bit weird but it is pure data, nothing imagined there.    Its worth revising as basically candles are the shortcut to showing data.    That allows me to put it on 4hr bar but still gives me a summary on what occured in that 4 hours, where a simple line chart is showing less.  


When people stick some chalk lines on the ground declaring a bullish territory and start saying well 9500 must be support, thats when the story telling starts :p   Its all maybe hence many just say well skip that and they go with the certainties they believe in.  
  I just dont think there is any certainties anywhere, just most probable and paths of least resistance.



See this magic line, we go below that and we must be weaker     I was just listening to nic trades and she says a trend is tested when broken or its not a breakout so maybe 10500 as target if we can close below this line.  50 DMA is around there also.  Profit taking is always natural.



Dont have to sell it all, trade means you can buy and sell the same portion ten times over.   I think people are doing both often.

Ah, have you reached the "TA is voodoo" stage in your trading career? That's the point where most people get off the train for good and become hodlers, which is a respectable enough position. No more trading for you?

Not me because I have decided to turn a new leaf in my career with Bitcoin.  I am going to quit with these charts.  Look at all the weird charts you people posted.  Bitcoin is a lot more simple than all these lines, feelings, and gizmos.

some are traders, some are long term investors. but we're all speculators, so even if we're not imminently selling, we're financially interested in where the market is headed. even hardcore hodlers get addicted to the charts.

personally, most of my coins are in cold storage but i swing trade 10-20% of my total stash at a time.

Are most of you ppl who keep talking about btc price traders?  Or holders?  Because unless you plan to sell soon or trade, shouldn't none of this matters if you don't plan to sell btc?

I guess this marked the bottom. I should have recognized that we were all getting too bearish.

Based on TAM and other methods, I'm still expecting the overall correction to last another 5-8 weeks. However, there's a good chance $8,000s are off the table now. Bitcoin likes to thrust down hard in the early part of a correction, then finish off sideways with no lower lows. It's likely we'll see $10K or slightly below again though.

Late September/October is when I think the Bitcoin market will get interesting again. We're still stuck in the summer lulls, with the ghost month right around the corner.

That reminds me of early 2017

At first Bitcoin was able to crash below 900 dollars (yes, such were prices back in the day) on rumors of the Chinese Central bank banning Bitcoin (it was likely the first time that rumor emerged). Then the price quickly recovered and went above 1k again. After that, there were a few occasions when Bitcoin closed just short of 900 dollars all over again but never actually went below that mark. Now we see that the history repeats itself, though on an entirely new level of prices. So let's hope that 9k will turn out as impenetrable as 900 dollars had been two and a half years ago as we all know what happened soon thereafter

Well it failed to pass 9000 in any good attempt, its risen from that lack of challenge to the lows.   Now I have to at least consider the oppisite that Bitcoin can then retest the highs.   I dont personally favour this, I think this is a weak rally but on a daily chart it may have beaten a negative trend speculating since the 13k high.

The low I posted above was not revisited in any way since, so I was wrong to be so bearish.  I think volume is weak, this does not match a breakout scenario.   OBV shown at the bottom shows nothing exceptionally bullish

More lows today.  It is now at $9,462 but the other day she went down to $9,127.  Have fun holding on for dear life with your crusty old bags.  Everybody else is going to be buying on the cheap!

Someone is trying very hard to prop this level up. If you've been watching the 1-min chart, you can see anytime someone dumps, they immediately follow up with market buys to prevent people from selling:



This has been going on for days. I wouldn't necessarily take it as a bullish sign. This accumulator very well may just be delaying the inevitable and setting the market up for an even more brutal waterfall. People who prop markets usually get punished.

'right now' ≠  sell and go away forever.   6 years is not my time frame, I basically looking whats on the menu for the next week.   Its gruel soup for the longs sorry but I hope you get bread.

always the people love the absolutes but thats not trading is it now.   I still think negative but Im happy if market wants to prove me wrong, so far it is not doing so.  Its slipping into the ocean bit by bit and I dont advise standing underneath that clifftop with an umbrella.


The weekend was a stop hunt, weekends I avoid but main week we have to see if it can continue down from fridays close up.    Its no where near 8 day and its failing to pass the 2 day average, I'll watch this area carefully with a tight stop I think is fair as its already attempted up a few times.

The bullish bet going on the double bottom idea would be to rest on it not making a lower low, so the stop loss would be 9100 or a bit lower.    Could be the more sensible bet if the framework werent already negative.

Someone tried pretty hard to paint a double bottom off the $9,100 level. I'm not convinced yet.

On Bitstamp's daily bar chart, the dump off $10,235 a couple days ago signaled a bearish range expansion. If the market can clear that $10,235 level, it'll signal a clear reversal. That will also line up with the 20-day MA in the next day or two:



Until we clear those resistances, there's no reason to get bullish yet. It's just a double bottom attempt until proven otherwise.