Topic: What the Effing Hell is Going On!?!?! - page 4. (Read 1589 times)
It is now at $10,960 and the chart displays a series of lower-highs and lower-lows.
I disagree. Looking anecdotally at some polls, it seems like the opposite:
https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
Trader data shows bullish sentiment as well. Bitmex funding rate is 0.0145% which isn't astronomical yet but definitely indicates bulls outnumber bears.
Also, this is longs (green) vs. shorts (red) on Bitfinex. Long positions are sloping back up and already outnumber shorts by more than 2x:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a crash per se. Most (or all) of the potential downside has already occurred. But it's pretty typical for corrections like this to extend up to 40% and very occasionally even past that. That puts the maximum downside around $8K.
The bottom could be in already but I don't think the correction is over yet. Time-wise, I think this will chop around for at least another week or two first.
https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
Trader data shows bullish sentiment as well. Bitmex funding rate is 0.0145% which isn't astronomical yet but definitely indicates bulls outnumber bears.
Also, this is longs (green) vs. shorts (red) on Bitfinex. Long positions are sloping back up and already outnumber shorts by more than 2x:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a crash per se. Most (or all) of the potential downside has already occurred. But it's pretty typical for corrections like this to extend up to 40% and very occasionally even past that. That puts the maximum downside around $8K.
The bottom could be in already but I don't think the correction is over yet. Time-wise, I think this will chop around for at least another week or two first.
Whatever you say. Using a poll from a thread in bitcointalk to prove your point is pretty pathetic, you really think this is a representation of the worldwide bitcoin market? The majority of speculators took that gravestone doji seriously. Were you stupid enough to?
I didn't just use a poll from a thread on Bitcointalk. I used long/short data from two of the biggest trading platforms in the world. I also used a Twitter poll with a few hundred participants. I'm also just taking a general overview of Crypto Twitter, Tradingview chat, and Bitcointalk.
Why do you assume the majority of speculators are bearish? What is that based on?
Winslow, anybody's guess is good enough to consider because nobody really has any real clue here! Bitcoin is currently at $11,131. This feels similar to the parabolic that topped out on Dec 2017 and then it went down slowly with tons of fake outs until it bottomed out at $3,500.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
$11k+ is awesome considering we started the year at $3ks. Comparing now to end of 2017 is stupid, end of 2017 was the top of a 100x price run and a year after a halving, we are a year from the next halving and just getting the bull run started. But do what you want, I don't gaf - short it all.
Short it all and jump off a bridge when it hits 25k.
I am of the opinion we are no where near the top.
From the mining viewpoint. 2017 a diff of 1.4 a price of 20k
That is a 15 to 1 factor.
We are at
A diff of 8. And a price of 11k. That is a 1.37 to 1 factor.
If you believe the network is 2x the efficiency. The factor bumps to 2.75 to 1
Which is not in the least close to 2017.
So from the mining viewpoint this is about 1/6 as good as 2017.
Price wise. It is 11/20 as good as 2017
The truth is we are some where in between 2017 dec and 2018 dec in terms of mining profits.
My guess is price will approach 15k this year and 26k next April.
Winslow, anybody's guess is good enough to consider because nobody really has any real clue here! Bitcoin is currently at $11,131. This feels similar to the parabolic that topped out on Dec 2017 and then it went down slowly with tons of fake outs until it bottomed out at $3,500.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
$11k+ is awesome considering we started the year at $3ks. Comparing now to end of 2017 is stupid, end of 2017 was the top of a 100x price run and a year after a halving, we are a year from the next halving and just getting the bull run started. But do what you want, I don't gaf - short it all.
I agree. My goal is to just get in under $10K and anything lower is all gravy. I am all rested up and planning to take a few more additional days off.
Don't get me wrong I am still bullish and I am sure price will go high sooner than later, but a parabolic rise is more often than not followed by a slow decline. It would be a total freak show event to see the triple-parabolic (one after another), like some were predicting.
Don't get me wrong I am still bullish and I am sure price will go high sooner than later, but a parabolic rise is more often than not followed by a slow decline. It would be a total freak show event to see the triple-parabolic (one after another), like some were predicting.
It is now at $11,942 and I would think that is a top from these past 2 days of bullishness, and it will drop tonight. My buy orders are placed in the $9,300-9,800 range, just waiting. I will keep moving them down as time goes on because I think the price will drop to that area, or less.
If we haven't dropped to $9,300 to $9,800 range by July 23rd, you may want to consider getting in. Cause I'm anticipating another push up to begin last week of July or first week of August that will last toward the last week in August before we fall into a month of bear market in September.
October, November and December should be boomalishous.
Winslow, anybody's guess is good enough to consider because nobody really has any real clue here! Bitcoin is currently at $11,131. This feels similar to the parabolic that topped out on Dec 2017 and then it went down slowly with tons of fake outs until it bottomed out at $3,500.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
Also I notice that the weekly candle for June 24, 2019 has a huge bearish doji pointing down and the doji's shadows equal $3,500 in length. So my assumption is this was a mini parabolic compared to the last, and the price will keep going down. It is moving down like all the positive daily news does not matter.
My experience is that when things seem obvious, the unexpected often occurs. That's why I won't be surprised at further lows, even down to the $8,000s. Bulls seem very comfortable, and they certainly seem to be the majority. In situations like these, sometimes the market likes to give a good shakeout that forces weak hands out of the market.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
The majority of speculators, which you seem to be one of, think it's going to crash down hard.
I disagree. Looking anecdotally at some polls, it seems like the opposite:
https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
Trader data shows bullish sentiment as well. Bitmex funding rate is 0.0145% which isn't astronomical yet but definitely indicates bulls outnumber bears.
Also, this is longs (green) vs. shorts (red) on Bitfinex. Long positions are sloping back up and already outnumber shorts by more than 2x:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a crash per se. Most (or all) of the potential downside has already occurred. But it's pretty typical for corrections like this to extend up to 40% and very occasionally even past that. That puts the maximum downside around $8K.
The bottom could be in already but I don't think the correction is over yet. Time-wise, I think this will chop around for at least another week or two first.
Whatever you say. Using a poll from a thread in bitcointalk to prove your point is pretty pathetic, you really think this is a representation of the worldwide bitcoin market? The majority of speculators took that gravestone doji seriously. Were you stupid enough to?
My experience is that when things seem obvious, the unexpected often occurs. That's why I won't be surprised at further lows, even down to the $8,000s. Bulls seem very comfortable, and they certainly seem to be the majority. In situations like these, sometimes the market likes to give a good shakeout that forces weak hands out of the market.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
The majority of speculators, which you seem to be one of, think it's going to crash down hard.
I disagree. Looking anecdotally at some polls, it seems like the opposite:
https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1146232720688865280
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
Trader data shows bullish sentiment as well. Bitmex funding rate is 0.0145% which isn't astronomical yet but definitely indicates bulls outnumber bears.
Also, this is longs (green) vs. shorts (red) on Bitfinex. Long positions are sloping back up and already outnumber shorts by more than 2x:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting a crash per se. Most (or all) of the potential downside has already occurred. But it's pretty typical for corrections like this to extend up to 40% and very occasionally even past that. That puts the maximum downside around $8K.
The bottom could be in already but I don't think the correction is over yet. Time-wise, I think this will chop around for at least another week or two first.
I don't think the price now is overhyped or overbought at all. Everyone with a brain knows it's going to be way higher than this next year, so I'm not expecting a crash sub $10k going forward. Those who have dumped and are licking their chops at sub $5k coins are going to end up panic buying at a btc loss instead is my prediction.
My experience is that when things seem obvious, the unexpected often occurs. That's why I won't be surprised at further lows, even down to the $8,000s. Bulls seem very comfortable, and they certainly seem to be the majority. In situations like these, sometimes the market likes to give a good shakeout that forces weak hands out of the market.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
The majority of speculators, which you seem to be one of, think it's going to crash down hard. I agree with the rest of what you say about what happens when most think one way and what happens is the opposite.
I don't think the price now is overhyped or overbought at all. Everyone with a brain knows it's going to be way higher than this next year, so I'm not expecting a crash sub $10k going forward. Those who have dumped and are licking their chops at sub $5k coins are going to end up panic buying at a btc loss instead is my prediction.
My experience is that when things seem obvious, the unexpected often occurs. That's why I won't be surprised at further lows, even down to the $8,000s. Bulls seem very comfortable, and they certainly seem to be the majority. In situations like these, sometimes the market likes to give a good shakeout that forces weak hands out of the market.
I certainly agree about sub-$5K though. Anything below $8K is becoming increasingly unlikely now.
I don't think the price now is overhyped or overbought at all. Everyone with a brain knows it's going to be way higher than this next year, so I'm not expecting a crash sub $10k going forward. Those who have dumped and are licking their chops at sub $5k coins are going to end up panic buying at a btc loss instead is my prediction.
It looks like dmwardjr is still bearish. I respect his analysis a lot. It's also worth noting that being bearish is a heavily contrarian position right now.
I like this dmwardjr's comments are charts. I will keep an eye out for that users posts!
As much as I'd like to disagree, exstasie's right, being a bear actually means you're part of a very small minority, that's been getting smaller since the hype began rising again in April.
I said it the whole of last year and this year, I wasn't ready for any rally to start until the "crypto winter" had well and truly purged all the bulls. Unfortunately, the sentiment went positive with plenty of bulls still around, so they got louder and then the middling joined their ranks.
Not that I'm complaining of course. Just that I'd have much preferred this to be a year of accumulation at super low prices =p
I think it is the same people rolling the bitcoin prices over and over again and this is what exactly happening right now, maybe there are new players as well but not as many as you may think. If a person buys bitcoin from 4k and the other person sells it at 4k than the buyer will sell at 5k and seller will buy at 5k, then the seller buys from 6k ... this goes on until the price reaches higher.
One big player in all of this is the people who stopped selling their coins and waiting for the price to go as max as possible and not willing to sell at these prices because they know if they wait they can get more money out of it as well. So, the buyers buy from each other to make it bigger and bigger while sellers are holding which in return makes sure there is no need to have a new big buy in from someone but the market players that already exists can do it.
One big player in all of this is the people who stopped selling their coins and waiting for the price to go as max as possible and not willing to sell at these prices because they know if they wait they can get more money out of it as well. So, the buyers buy from each other to make it bigger and bigger while sellers are holding which in return makes sure there is no need to have a new big buy in from someone but the market players that already exists can do it.
It is now at $11,942 and I would think that is a top from these past 2 days of bullishness, and it will drop tonight. My buy orders are placed in the $9,300-9,800 range, just waiting. I will keep moving them down as time goes on because I think the price will drop to that area, or less.
Hey thanks for everyone's valuable input in the topic. The price looks good today but I still think it is going down.
you could be right. it's times like these where i can't imagine the price crashing, that it does. at the moment, it seems like sellers are completely nonexistent. price is just melting upwards with no resistance. but that's how it seemed last friday at $12k+ too, right before it crashed below $10k. i almost bought more at the top of that bull trap!
Hey thanks for everyone's valuable input in the topic. The price looks good today but I still think it is going down.
Also I learned there are times to buy, times to sell, and times to rest. I am resting.
I like this dmwardjr's comments are charts. I will keep an eye out for that users posts!
Also I learned there are times to buy, times to sell, and times to rest. I am resting.
It looks like dmwardjr is still bearish. I respect his analysis a lot. It's also worth noting that being bearish is a heavily contrarian position right now.
I like this dmwardjr's comments are charts. I will keep an eye out for that users posts!
I was roughly right above, however when setting up a trade it seems best to just take the stop loss level and use that for the start to give yourself extra leeway without paying for it so much.
So pricing went to 11,500 and yet we are roughly where we began the day, it can easily be closing down from here or breaking out but nobody is sure when. The OP with his relative high price just needs to realise the market is bouncing off the walls and could quite easily reach that point again for some brief time even before falling. I'm thinking it should move down at least a bit more but market is trying to break past walls containing it before then falling back and conforming.
That means nobody is right really, however the price closing each 4hr bar or daily or weekly and then moving properly is harder to call
So pricing went to 11,500 and yet we are roughly where we began the day, it can easily be closing down from here or breaking out but nobody is sure when. The OP with his relative high price just needs to realise the market is bouncing off the walls and could quite easily reach that point again for some brief time even before falling. I'm thinking it should move down at least a bit more but market is trying to break past walls containing it before then falling back and conforming.
That means nobody is right really, however the price closing each 4hr bar or daily or weekly and then moving properly is harder to call
It looks like dmwardjr is still bearish. I respect his analysis a lot. It's also worth noting that being bearish is a heavily contrarian position right now.
After that 20K short claim on Bitfinex, shorts are looking mighty low, much lower than longs. Positions are also weighted towards longs on Bitmex. So from sentiment and trader commitment perspectives, it seems like bulls are too confident right now. Maybe we need to shake the trees again.
Since the $13,800s top it's been nothing but lower highs and lower lows. The market is threatening to fail again at the .618 retracement of the June 28-July 2 leg down.
After that 20K short claim on Bitfinex, shorts are looking mighty low, much lower than longs. Positions are also weighted towards longs on Bitmex. So from sentiment and trader commitment perspectives, it seems like bulls are too confident right now. Maybe we need to shake the trees again.
Since the $13,800s top it's been nothing but lower highs and lower lows. The market is threatening to fail again at the .618 retracement of the June 28-July 2 leg down.
I think this big correction was not just what it looked like. It was just a lot of people selling and panic sellers always tend to get out whenever they can, usually they put stop loss on the prices a little bit below what they bought and when someone sold they all got triggered as well and sold too.
Now that we are lower than the peak we had they are not buying back because they are afraid the same thing will happen again. There was just way too many people buying at over 13 thousand dollars and none of them are willing to get back in the market. If we can manage to get them back on the market and show them that this is the bottom we can get and we are not dropping any lower than we can break all the way to the top and have a new all time high price as well.
Now that we are lower than the peak we had they are not buying back because they are afraid the same thing will happen again. There was just way too many people buying at over 13 thousand dollars and none of them are willing to get back in the market. If we can manage to get them back on the market and show them that this is the bottom we can get and we are not dropping any lower than we can break all the way to the top and have a new all time high price as well.
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