what the heck triggered that spike? | Bitcointalksearch.org

imanikin

hero member

Activity: 702

Merit: 503

Thanks! Looks like a nice tool for the traders!

So, assuming you guys are right, seems that the MtG pump & dumps - whether they are generated by MtG trading with itself or not - will continue in the foreseeable future, because among other reasons at steadier rates "the arbitrage" is not profitable enough...

The non-"traders" and the merchants will just have to put up with the rate instability, and constantly pay exchanges and processors (aka "the traders"?) to convert back to fiat on both ends to avoid bigger losses...

And some of our members here will continue to wonder why they "can't give Bitcoin away" to their friends these days, or donate it to Wikipedia, or why widespread adoption hasn't happened yet... Huh

I guess, that's just life in the "truly free market". Cheesy

genuise

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

Here at bitcoin-analytics.com we provide exactly this tool which helps to see most (not all yet) arbitrage opportunities.

The key feature is that percentage and absolute value of potential profit depends not only on the best price but also on volume of funds you consider.

The arbitrage tool allows you to analyze a set of existing arbitrage opportunites depending on volume.

here is a small explanation

BkkCoins

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1009

firstbits:1MinerQ

Quote from: Grinder on November 27, 2012, 08:56:15 AM

Quote from: imanikin on November 27, 2012, 07:59:52 AM

I think it's not true, because we regularly see small 20-30 cent discounts at #2-3 exchanges, from which "the traders" don't "quickly take advantage of and close the price gap."

I doubt you'll see that very often if you compare the order book and not the last traded price, unless the volume is very small. Remember that you have to buy at the sell price on one exchange and sell at the bid price on the other. This spread will usually be too large or the order book too thin for there to be an actual arbitrage opportunity.

Not just that spread but also add the cost of moving fiat between exchanges. An arbitrageur is going to include all costs of doing any trade so there is no doubt a few percent for moving fiat to balance, and so anything within a few percent won't be jumped on, even if beyond the spread. I looked at doing this last year, and wrote some code to monitor a few exchanges using their apis, and then decided there was little opportunity even when seemingly reasonable variations happened between exchanges.

Spread + 2x trade fees + fiat transfer fees + opportunity cost on balances + risk of exchange hacking. I haven't followed anything recently so I don't know what's going on with the prices except a casual glance each day.

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001

Quote from: imanikin on November 27, 2012, 07:59:52 AM

I think it's not true, because we regularly see small 20-30 cent discounts at #2-3 exchanges, from which "the traders" don't "quickly take advantage of and close the price gap."

I doubt you'll see that very often if you compare the order book and not the last traded price, unless the volume is very small. Remember that you have to buy at the sell price on one exchange and sell at the bid price on the other. This spread will usually be too large or the order book too thin for there to be an actual arbitrage opportunity.

imanikin

hero member

Activity: 702

Merit: 503

Quote from: molecular on November 27, 2012, 07:20:38 AM

The problem with timely arbitrage is moving the FIAT from exchange to exchange.

arbitrage happening is not the only reason for the other exchanges following gox. Another one is everybody using gox as leading price.

+1 The arbitrage is a neat theory of the future, or the way things should be, which i also hoped would be true back when MtG was the only xchange...

I think it's not true, because we regularly see small 20-30 cent discounts at #2-3 exchanges, from which "the traders" don't "quickly take advantage of and close the price gap."

So, we see tall mountains of discounted B there, which would be easy to move, and know from that "the traders" don't actually have even small fiat funds at those xchanges to move B for arbitrage...

When there is a juicy pump and dump going on at MtG, they simply follow that pump & dump's general price levels... Roll Eyes

So, it will be interesting to see which hypothesis is true, when Bitcoin is big enough for the regulators to move into the xchanges. Cool

(We'll then at least have some certainty that the xchanges are not adding a few zeros to their databases to trade with themselves in order to fleece their new-money "customers" in the consequent pump & dump waterfalls. And we might finally see the pump & dumpers bring us a p2p dark xchange, where they can continue their games... ) Cheesy

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: BkkCoins on November 27, 2012, 06:11:04 AM

Quote from: molecular on November 27, 2012, 04:44:04 AM

Quote from: Grinder on November 26, 2012, 05:51:30 PM

Quote from: imanikin on November 26, 2012, 05:40:06 PM

The B exchanges are a joke, because they all still follow MtG and its pumpNdump teams up and down. Pathetic! Cheesy

Any price difference leads to arbitrage, which traders will quickly take advantage of and close the price gap.

The problem with timely arbitrage is moving the FIAT from exchange to exchange.

To do arbitrage you need to have sufficient funds on account at each exchange to allow for the time to move funds and rebalance accounts.

yes. and there is also cost associated with moving the moneys.

Quote from: BkkCoins on November 27, 2012, 06:11:04 AM

The following of exchanges is precisely why you know arbitrage is happening. That's what it does - it makes exchanges follow each other. The reason they follow MtGox is because it has the order depth. If another exchange moved away from MtGox and also had sufficient depth available then MtGox would follow it.

ie. If I sold a large amount of Bitcoin on exchange X, once I used up it's available buyers, arbitrage would bring more buyers who would then sell on MtGox and cause it's price to follow downwards. It's faster and cheaper to move the Bitcoins than the fiat currency so the response is asymmetrical.

arbitrage happening is not the only reason for the other exchanges following gox. Another one is everybody using gox as leading price.

BkkCoins

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1009

firstbits:1MinerQ

Quote from: molecular on November 27, 2012, 04:44:04 AM

Quote from: Grinder on November 26, 2012, 05:51:30 PM

Quote from: imanikin on November 26, 2012, 05:40:06 PM

The B exchanges are a joke, because they all still follow MtG and its pumpNdump teams up and down. Pathetic! Cheesy

Any price difference leads to arbitrage, which traders will quickly take advantage of and close the price gap.

The problem with timely arbitrage is moving the FIAT from exchange to exchange.

To do arbitrage you need to have sufficient funds on account at each exchange to allow for the time to move funds and rebalance accounts.

The following of exchanges is precisely why you know arbitrage is happening. That's what it does - it makes exchanges follow each other. The reason they follow MtGox is because it has the order depth. If another exchange moved away from MtGox and also had sufficient depth available then MtGox would follow it.

ie. If I sold a large amount of Bitcoin on exchange X, once I used up it's available buyers, arbitrage would bring more buyers who would then sell on MtGox and cause it's price to follow downwards. It's faster and cheaper to move the Bitcoins than the fiat currency so the response is asymmetrical.

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001

Quote from: 420 on November 27, 2012, 04:00:05 AM

so how do these bots run? custom software?

Yes.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Grinder on November 26, 2012, 05:51:30 PM

Quote from: imanikin on November 26, 2012, 05:40:06 PM

The B exchanges are a joke, because they all still follow MtG and its pumpNdump teams up and down. Pathetic! Cheesy

Any price difference leads to arbitrage, which traders will quickly take advantage of and close the price gap.

The problem with timely arbitrage is moving the FIAT from exchange to exchange.

420

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: Grinder on November 27, 2012, 03:55:48 AM

Quote from: imanikin on November 26, 2012, 07:31:48 PM

Depends on what "quickly" means to you. We've been waiting for arbitrage since other exchanges started to appear, which is what - more than a year now? Instead, they all simply follow MtG rates worldwide like a bunch of zombies. Roll Eyes

Quickly usually means as soon as the bots notice, which is what makes the exchanges follow MtGox. If you're trying to do it manually you'll usually be too slow and the trades will be too small to make it worthwhile.

so how do these bots run? custom software?

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001

Quote from: imanikin on November 26, 2012, 07:31:48 PM

Depends on what "quickly" means to you. We've been waiting for arbitrage since other exchanges started to appear, which is what - more than a year now? Instead, they all simply follow MtG rates worldwide like a bunch of zombies. Roll Eyes

Quickly usually means as soon as the bots notice, which is what makes the exchanges follow MtGox. If you're trying to do it manually you'll usually be too slow and the trades will be too small to make it worthwhile.

imanikin

hero member

Activity: 702

Merit: 503

Quote from: Grinder on November 26, 2012, 05:51:30 PM

Any price difference leads to arbitrage, which traders will quickly take advantage of and close the price gap.

Depends on what "quickly" means to you. We've been waiting for arbitrage since other exchanges started to appear, which is what - more than a year now? Instead, they all simply follow MtG rates worldwide like a bunch of zombies. Roll Eyes

To me, simply confirms and reconfirms that the B xchange rate to any currency has little to no foundation in real supply and demand. Rather, it is still set by MtG pump & dump artists, and perhaps even MtG trading against itself. When all the other xchanges worldwide simply follow that, there is no way to tell what's really happening...

I think it's one of the main reasons B is still considered a ponzi scam in the mainstream, and something not to take seriously. Cheesy

Grinder

legendary

Activity: 1284

Merit: 1001