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Topic: what the heck triggered that spike? - page 2. (Read 6125 times)

sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 24, 2012, 12:44:23 PM
#31
[...]and yes I had reprted those volume descripancies to clark before.
[...]In general the difference is that clark's service shows double volume than ours at spikes. And at spikes it is clearly visible.
But I guess it is not big deal cause it seams nobody really cares... Althought I think this is very important.

Thanks. I had no idea. That does sound pretty bad.  

If true, it seems very likely that this behavior has, and will continue to,
wrongly influence people's investment decisions in the aftermath of major movements.

(And perhaps lead to bigger swings when swings first happen.)

I mean, imagine if the kitco had an intermittent and erroneous 2x volatility multiplier. Scandal.

Questions:

(1) How do you know it is not the other way around? (I have to ask.)
(2) Is bitcoin.clarkmoody.com the only service affected? In particular: Is btccharts.com reliable?

Bug report posted to clark.


Hi, as I showed in clark's thread

and as also acknowledged one post after the error definitly is not on our side.

as for the btccharts I do not have any data yet.
Maybe someone who has can say something?
legendary
Activity: 1458
Merit: 1006
November 23, 2012, 03:31:58 PM
#30
[...]and yes I had reprted those volume descripancies to clark before.
[...]In general the difference is that clark's service shows double volume than ours at spikes. And at spikes it is clearly visible.
But I guess it is not big deal cause it seams nobody really cares... Althought I think this is very important.

Thanks. I had no idea. That does sound pretty bad.  

If true, it seems very likely that this behavior has, and will continue to,
wrongly influence people's investment decisions in the aftermath of major movements.

(And perhaps lead to bigger swings when swings first happen.)

I mean, imagine if the kitco had an intermittent and erroneous 2x volatility multiplier. Scandal.

Questions:

(1) How do you know it is not the other way around? (I have to ask.)
(2) Is bitcoin.clarkmoody.com the only service affected? In particular: Is btccharts.com reliable?

Bug report posted to clark.
hero member
Activity: 699
Merit: 500
Your Minion
November 23, 2012, 04:44:56 AM
#29
and there it was, boom!

what happened?

Someone bought ~36K BTC. In one big bite. (More than 420000 USD worth.)




did you say....420?

I envy you who aren't dealing with 3 strike laws. In the mean time more moonshine and designers. Which if you haven't figured out yet is why some of, well most of my post are garbage junky slur.
Legalize soon for humanity!
420
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
November 23, 2012, 03:23:34 AM
#28
and there it was, boom!

what happened?

Someone bought ~36K BTC. In one big bite. (More than 420000 USD worth.)




did you say....420?
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 23, 2012, 12:03:57 AM
#27
wrong - no more than 15K... check the data

i think he took 2 days and 12 hours time period.

so youre both right.

how do you guys figure it was just one buyer? That makes no sense whatsoever.


Actually there is no way to tell it except when big trade is performed in 15 seconds interval or in several consequtive intervals. In latter case it is also a guess... Also there are very often trades rounded by 0,5K or 1K BTC. When this happens and you see big trade of 3.5K for example, you can be sure that is was one person order than several which coincided into 3.5K
legendary
Activity: 1002
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin
November 22, 2012, 10:22:38 PM
#26
few guess..

- second wave from cash transfert after WP news
- BitInstant article that Challenge Wiki
- a big intelligent investor
- start of a more volatile market due to the halving (I would not bet on it, neighter on a significant increase in volatility or price swing due to halving)

imo, halving may have an effect on the long term, due to less pressure downward from miner having less coin to sell..

donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
November 22, 2012, 05:35:12 PM
#25
wrong - no more than 15K... check the data

i think he took 2 days and 12 hours time period.

so youre both right.

how do you guys figure it was just one buyer? That makes no sense whatsoever.
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 22, 2012, 04:04:37 PM
#24



Although we are working on implementing mtgox streamAPI interface, we currently plan to release only orderbook volume based on full orderbook state.

From this experience I must admit that it is not as easy as one could think. To make it stable and robust. And in case of trade stream this task needs to be made much more carefull because of tricky filtering of only those trades which are relevant to the chart as the same trade can appear twice in cases when trade involves automatic currency conversions (based on mtgox stream api docs).
And we yet did not feel like touching this area yet, thus relying on bitcoincharts  trade stream which is universal for all exchanges. And support for multiple exchanges is our priority.

Nevertheless we really apriciate Clark's work which is an excelent example of design and usability for us.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1000
November 22, 2012, 03:47:43 PM
#23
It's my service bitcoin-analytics.com.
and yes I had reprted those volume descripancies to clark before.

We on bitcoin-analytics.com get trading data from bitcoincharts.com and clark uses mtgox streamAPI so this possibly is the cause of differences. In general the difference is that clark's service shows double volume than ours at spikes. And at spikes it is clearly visible. But I guess it is not big deal cause it seams nobody really cares... Althought I think this is very important.

Who is right then?
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
November 22, 2012, 03:18:04 PM
#22
Dem rockets  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 22, 2012, 02:59:56 PM
#21
It's my service bitcoin-analytics.com.
and yes I had reprted those volume descripancies to clark before.

We on bitcoin-analytics.com get trading data from bitcoincharts.com and clark uses mtgox streamAPI so this possibly is the cause of differences. In general the difference is that clark's service shows double volume than ours at spikes. And at spikes it is clearly visible. But I guess it is not big deal cause it seams nobody really cares... Althought I think this is very important.
legendary
Activity: 1458
Merit: 1006
November 22, 2012, 02:42:39 PM
#20
wrong - no more than 15K... check the data

Weird. Clark Moody did indicate 30K volume from ~11.7 to 12.00.
And 5-6K more up from ~12.00 up to 12.10 some minutes later.

Anyhow. It looks like I was quite wrong. I humbly submit to the data and offer my apology.



What sorcery is this? I don't think I've seen this tool before.
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 22, 2012, 02:03:17 PM
#19


just small illustration of the events discussed.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 502
November 22, 2012, 12:14:06 PM
#18
\....\The reason for price to rise is buyers out number sellers. \....\
THIS!
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1003
November 22, 2012, 11:30:29 AM
#17
and there it was, boom!

what happened?

Someone bought ~36K BTC. In one big bite. (More than 420000 USD worth.)




For someone to buy 36k BTC, then that means some other people sold 36k BTC. The reason for price to rise is buyers out number sellers. A trade for 36k BTC doesn't mean anything, could happen in a crash too.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1004
November 22, 2012, 08:53:48 AM
#16
wrong - no more than 15K... check the data

i think he took 2 days and 12 hours time period.

so youre both right.
hero member
Activity: 702
Merit: 503
November 22, 2012, 08:39:22 AM
#15
and there it was, boom!

what happened?
i think it's just the latest pump and dump.
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
November 22, 2012, 08:31:03 AM
#14
and there it was, boom!

what happened?

Someone bought ~36K BTC. In one big bite. (More than 420000 USD worth.)




wrong - no more than 15K... check the data
hero member
Activity: 540
Merit: 500
COINDER
November 22, 2012, 08:25:51 AM
#13
That's unprecedented, one person? squeezing whatever bears we had, wassup mr. m. up we go.

He may have made the best investment of his life.

For people on a cost averaging purchase plan like myself, it's psychologically very difficult to buy on spike days like today.  I hate paying up.

And yet, I look at the trend in news during the past few days: Wordpress, Spain banning cash transactions over €2500, etc.

And I press the buy button.  With urgency.

$12.15, still a bargain.

Yuuuuuuup and don,t forget Paypal is digging there own grave to.....
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
November 22, 2012, 08:20:35 AM
#12
That's unprecedented, one person? squeezing whatever bears we had, wassup mr. m. up we go.

He may have made the best investment of his life.

For people on a cost averaging purchase plan like myself, it's psychologically very difficult to buy on spike days like today.  I hate paying up.

And yet, I look at the trend in news during the past few days: Wordpress, Spain banning cash transactions over €2500, etc.

And I press the buy button.  With urgency.

$12.15, still a bargain.
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