Topic: What the hell is going on with the price? - page 2. (Read 6627 times)
yeah, most ppl looking at Bitcoin right now are just trying to figure the whole thing out let alone the economics behind it.
The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...
My take is that some party or parties with significant capital want to vacuum up BTC and are running a long upward slope which is designed to keep people who want in but on a dip in the cold and meet the price objectives of the weak hands who've decided to capitalize at particular price points. Unfortunately a lot of small time would-be investors may not really get much of a chance or when they take the plunge they'll end up with a fraction of what they might have. If I wanted in (and I don't because I'm already in) I'd just cost average from here. That is to say, spend {x} amount of fiat at a predetermined schedule and thus balance out the risk of overpaying with the reward of catching a break. In this way I'd protect against getting left out completely (which itself may or may not end up being a good thing.)
We are also getting ever closer to the block reward being cut down from 50 to 25 BTC per block. Close enough such that the recent run-up might have a component of pricing that in. I find it hard to project what impact this event could have on exchange rates and could see arguments for it having quite a range of impacts. Again, if I wanted in I'd want to have some of my foot in the door before this event just in case.
exactly right.
yes but how long will this party going to keep doing this?
once they stop buy, will they sell some? ...
WHY are they buying?
do they want to own the market, so they can manipulate us into buying or selling when they want?
I don't think the block reward halving is priced in yet. My theory is if you are a miner you are probably a bitcoin bull and so mostly would keep your savings in BTC (even without the block reward halving). You'd be selling when needed (as opposed to selling to fiat and saving that). So how long can someone defer paying living expenses, etc? Maybe a month or two but not much more than that.
I agree with this.
Many say it is because it is prior knowledge. But i still believe the "reality" of block reward halving hasn't fully hit everyone yet.
Just watch...there will be a bitcoin frenzy in the next 9 months.
I don't think the block reward halving is priced in yet. My theory is if you are a miner you are probably a bitcoin bull and so mostly would keep your savings in BTC (even without the block reward halving). You'd be selling when needed (as opposed to selling to fiat and saving that). So how long can someone defer paying living expenses, etc? Maybe a month or two but not much more than that.
The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...
My take is that some party or parties with significant capital want to vacuum up BTC and are running a long upward slope which is designed to keep people who want in but on a dip in the cold and meet the price objectives of the weak hands who've decided to capitalize at particular price points. Unfortunately a lot of small time would-be investors may not really get much of a chance or when they take the plunge they'll end up with a fraction of what they might have. If I wanted in (and I don't because I'm already in) I'd just cost average from here. That is to say, spend {x} amount of fiat at a predetermined schedule and thus balance out the risk of overpaying with the reward of catching a break. In this way I'd protect against getting left out completely (which itself may or may not end up being a good thing.)
We are also getting ever closer to the block reward being cut down from 50 to 25 BTC per block. Close enough such that the recent run-up might have a component of pricing that in. I find it hard to project what impact this event could have on exchange rates and could see arguments for it having quite a range of impacts. Again, if I wanted in I'd want to have some of my foot in the door before this event just in case.
exactly right.
The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...
My take is that some party or parties with significant capital want to vacuum up BTC and are running a long upward slope which is designed to keep people who want in but on a dip in the cold and meet the price objectives of the weak hands who've decided to capitalize at particular price points. Unfortunately a lot of small time would-be investors may not really get much of a chance or when they take the plunge they'll end up with a fraction of what they might have. If I wanted in (and I don't because I'm already in) I'd just cost average from here. That is to say, spend {x} amount of fiat at a predetermined schedule and thus balance out the risk of overpaying with the reward of catching a break. In this way I'd protect against getting left out completely (which itself may or may not end up being a good thing.)
We are also getting ever closer to the block reward being cut down from 50 to 25 BTC per block. Close enough such that the recent run-up might have a component of pricing that in. I find it hard to project what impact this event could have on exchange rates and could see arguments for it having quite a range of impacts. Again, if I wanted in I'd want to have some of my foot in the door before this event just in case.
You can cast your votes here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/who-or-what-is-behind-the-recent-price-increase-100706
...i'll put some cliff notes for you what's going on recently: US and UK politicians discussing alt currencies mentioning Bitcoin in their respective capitals, VC initiates Bitcoin discussion on his blog, SR and Bitcoinica on mainstream internet media. Hell, even us-cert.gov & nist.gov released bitcoin vulnerability warning on their sites, yes it's for an outdated version, but nonetheless even they're keeping tabs on Bitcoin out of all places lol. There is a rather large exposure of bitcoin to diverse circles of people out there, with no hype, people just talk more about it everywhere and many starting to take Bitcoin seriously.
This rings with truth, thanks.
The blockchain.info wallet does this too, and I've set it up to send me email whenever I receive or spend btc, which I do from bitcoin-qt where my private keys are. Great setup.
Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good 
You can also tack on your holdings or some representation of them to this URL and save it as a bookmark. http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/c/BTC/100.00
The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
What if we had a metric of (Last Block Transaction Counts * (Last Block Transaction Amounts / Last Block Bitcoin Days Destroyed)) / Block Number) ?
Or maybe just Last Block Transaction Counts / Block Number?
In both cases you'd want to exclude the top 100 addresses of course, but it might show a good ratio of how much use the blockchain is actually getting.
Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good
You could just sign up for blockchain.info, add your bitcoin addresses as "watch only" (no need to add private keys if you dont intend to use it as a wallet) and let it generate fancy charts. Sure beats using a calculator
damn did you buy back already?
It was a stealth move....hehehehe
Sell high, buy higher. It never fails!
(C) Cypherdoc
Did I tell you where I bought? No....so you are just making assumptions.
Speculate about that more he he he he 
damn did you buy back already?
It was a stealth move....hehehehe
Sell high, buy higher. It never fails!
(C) Cypherdoc
Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good
Let me break the news for you: it's only numbers on your calculator. Unless you sell your coins, you've got zero dollars/euros/dinars/whatever.I'd be using your calculator to figure out how many bitcoins you can get for you stash of USD
not the other way around
Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good
Let me break the news for you: it's only numbers on your calculator. Unless you sell your coins, you've got zero dollars/euros/dinars/whatever.Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good
Let me break the news for you: it's only numbers on your calculator. Unless you sell your coins, you've got zero dollars/euros/dinars/whatever. ^ LOL +1
damn did you buy back already?
It was a stealth move....hehehehe
Every time exchange rate rises I take out my calculator and and multiply amount of bitcoins I have, feels good
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