What the hell is going on with the price? - page 4.

cheat_2_win

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Quote from: fcmatt on August 13, 2012, 09:44:55 PM

Speculation is taking place with a small dab of a growing bitcoin economy.
As a miner i am selling daily and transferring to my bank account as quickly as possible.
I will not speculate at this point and i will run my gpus into the ground. Resale value is not important anymore.

If this applies to majority of the miners, it is amazing that price is holding up at the current level.

weex

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

If you look back over the bottom at $2 and before the 2011 bubble, the cost per transaction stayed within the $3-5 range. Today with a cost per transaction of $2, one could say it's undervalued at $12. That being said, with volume should come economy of scale so as the # of transactions per day increase we're unlikely to settle at $3-5 per transaction. The price has risen quickly but one could also make the case that there was a stickiness to $5 that when broken out of, led to this relatively quick correction.

fcmatt

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Speculation is taking place with a small dab of a growing bitcoin economy.
As a miner i am selling daily and transferring to my bank account as quickly as possible.
I will not speculate at this point and i will run my gpus into the ground. Resale value is not important anymore.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: proudhon on August 13, 2012, 08:43:54 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Aaaaaaand, if, through a major pump, the price does reach $20, or $100, it will come crashing right back down. There won't be enough bid volume to sustain the selling at those levels and lots of profit takers will be competing against each other to get out. It won't be pretty.

this isn't happening

these days the manipulation going on is to keep prices lower then they should be as millions of new dollars enter the market.

dree12

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Quote from: bitcool on August 13, 2012, 09:16:44 PM

Quote from: majamalu on August 13, 2012, 09:05:56 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Do you think the current price of gold is almost entirely speculative?

Good question.
Similarly, the total $$$ in existence is far bigger than M0 money supply.

The same argument will eventually apply to Bitcoin. Fractional reserve banking increases money supply.

bitcool

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Live and enjoy experiments

Quote from: majamalu on August 13, 2012, 09:05:56 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Do you think the current price of gold is almost entirely speculative?

Good question.
Similarly, the total $$$ in existence is far bigger than M0 money supply.

smoothie

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Quote from: majamalu on August 13, 2012, 09:05:56 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Do you think the current price of gold is almost entirely speculative?

No it is a symptom of central banks inflating their currency supplies.

majamalu

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Do you think the current price of gold is almost entirely speculative?

smoothie

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Quote from: proudhon on August 13, 2012, 08:43:54 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Aaaaaaand, if, through a major pump, the price does reach $20, or $100, it will come crashing right back down. There won't be enough bid volume to sustain the selling at those levels and lots of profit takers will be competing against each other to get out. It won't be pretty.

And you would be one of those selling...lol

proudhon

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Aaaaaaand, if, through a major pump, the price does reach $20, or $100, it will come crashing right back down. There won't be enough bid volume to sustain the selling at those levels and lots of profit takers will be competing against each other to get out. It won't be pretty.

misterbigg

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on August 13, 2012, 08:02:13 PM

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Thanks, this is exactly the information I was looking for. Good analysis. I'm contemplating a large purchase.

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction?

If you are buying as an investment, then you take what comes with investment -- a risk of loss.

Those who buy bitcoins as they need them for making purchases aren't exposed to exchange rate risk, they buy bitcoins and they immediately use them to complete the purchase of goods or services that they needed the bitcoins for. So whether or not this is a bubble means little for them.

Nobody knows the future though.

The metric that should be closely watched is the transaction counts. They have been rising.
- http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular

Now the amount of currency to accommodate that level of activity might only be ten million USD worth of bitcoin though (a wild guess). So that would value bitcoins at a $1 each to support Bitcoin's current economic activity. So anything over that is for the most part speculative value. Could it go to $20, or $100? Sure. But until the transaction volumes (and underlying bitcoin amounts) gets sufficiently higher, it is still 90% speculative.

Serge

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Quote from: URSAY on August 13, 2012, 07:56:06 PM

another word: MANIPULATION

Bitcoin is going to be manipulated into triple digits and than crushed below $1 *evil grin*

while being manipulated, contemplate on this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0

cheat_2_win

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Quote from: URSAY on August 13, 2012, 07:56:06 PM

another word: MANIPULATION

It is time now to bump all the manipulation thread from last year Cheesy

smoothie

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Quote from: URSAY on August 13, 2012, 07:56:06 PM

another word: MANIPULATION

Here is another word(s): Profit/Prophet

URSAY

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another word: MANIPULATION

smoothie

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To answer the thread question: It is going UP.

Serge

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Quote from: misterbigg on August 13, 2012, 07:47:15 PM

The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...

one word: EXPOSURE

misterbigg

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The price goes up every day! Is this a bubble? Will there be a correction? I want to buy but I'm afraid I'm buying at a peak...

Topic: What the hell is going on with the price? - page 4. (Read 6627 times)