Topic: What to do in a bear market - page 2. (Read 767 times)

I really hope that 12x prediction for the next btc bull run is correct.

Back in 2019, of the various computations to predict btc bull run peaks one of the simplest ones was to use the low-to-high ratio for each historical cycle, and it went something like:

Nov 2011 low to Nov 2013 peak was an approx 500x multplier.
Jan 2015 low to Dec 2017 peak was an approx 100x multiplier.

The multiplier change between these 2 cycles was 500/100 = 5, so the projected low-to-high ratio for the next cycle (i.e. 2021 bull run) would theoretically be 100/5 = 20.

And what was the actual multiplier in the 2021 bull run: approx 23

If that trend in the decrease in the multiplier by a factor of 5 holds true then the next bull run multiplier could be in the 4x to 5x range only! If the recent 25k low turns out to be the actual cycle low then the next peak could be in the 100k-125k range. That's some depressing sh*t!

I always felt that the low-to-high ratio method was too lowball in it's predictions, but the fact that it was almost spot on for the 2021 peak made it scary.

Well I had many posts that I said eth 2.0 price is above 5k, eth 1.0 would not hit 5k, even though I said that I did not wait because how the market was insane in few days and I acted fast and sold 80% of all eth I had, I thought it would crash fast too and I could buy back much lower, it did crash back 1050 usd and I did not buy it back because I thought it would be a trap, scammers were spreading too much bs, people were getting insane, so I preferred not to buy back. What made eth to rise to almost 5k was the fact a fork was coming out to burn eth fees then from 1500 it got fast to 3k, when eth price was higher than of what i had sold around 1700 then I preferred not to buy even though I knew scammers would rise it fast. The same thing happened when I created a sell order of my 20% remaining eth at 4900 usd, it got as high as 4820 usd, yeah for few dollars I missed the chance to sell my 20% of eth left, to this day I never sold them. I missed the chance to sell for 4800 usd ,why should I sell for 1800 usd? If I was in need of money yes but since i'm 60% in fiat, I dont need to sell them, yes I could have sold high and bought now but I missed that sell point. You see, market price is market price, if you miss, might have another chance to sell high, yeah might take few years but that is how the game is.

For the next term, I need to know what the bottom is going to be and make projections where this will be going next bullrun, my initial projection right now is 12 times for btc and 25 times for eth, eth this last bullrun rose 50 times and btc 23 times, so cut that on 50%, every cycle will be 50% less as per my projections. The crash will also be cut in half, so eth will crash as much as 6 - 8 times and btc 3 to 5 from top, meaning btc will crash to 14k - 22k and eth 625 - 833 usd on this bear market. This is not bear market yet.

Do you really think that "layering-out/dcaing-out starting at 1.5k" is "trading the past"?

Back at the start of 2019, looking at what eth did over 2017-2018, were you not possibly thinking: "ok, eth reached 1.4k last time, I expect that it can reach at least 1.5k next bull run", so you end up planning to layer-out starting at 1.5k.

That's not "trading the past", that's just executing a plan you made based on the previous bull run.

In Metroid's case he based his decision mainly on how eth reached certain price levels (or how the market in general reached those levels) and not just on the price level itself. When I made my plan back in Jan 2019, I did not consider how the market reached certain price levels and only looked at the price levels (though I was greedier as my layer-out start point was at twice the previous bull run ath). For the next bull run, I'll probably factor in how the price reaches certain levels and not just the actual price level.

I absolutely have the courage to buy $30k+ worth of mining rigs during the real bear market, when or if they're half of MSRP. I have gone through the last bear market and this strategy has given me a 5x return on my money. I'll buy the rigs and assume they will make zero profit for 3 years in a row. Only then would I give up and sell the cards.

The 2 x 3080 are for deep learning and AI reverse engineering graphical content, miners usually buy dozens of gpus, anyway, it is always better to buy coins except in the bull market, mining makes no sense if you are looking for profit, yeah my plan is to wait the real bottom and buy just like when I did in 2018. I'm patient, I can wait, funny will be sheeps buying now and then a 50% crash comes in few months and they could have bought twice as much, in this market if people are not patient then they get burnt easily, bear market is here to stay for at least 12 months more and by the way this is a pre bear market, bear market things are much much gloomier hehe

Now I see clearly, I didn't know you are here since that time and that incident. You've been cautious since them, you're calling bear market soon enough to not maximize your gains, but soon enough to not get burned 



Can I ask why bought 2x high end cards, paying to change thermals but not to mine?
I'm just asking because SLI is not an option anymore so it doesn't make sense to buy more than 1 card 
Confess, you're a miner and bought cards to mine 

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Are you really willing to buy cards in a crash, let's say like you "in the real bear"?
I ask that because I see a lot of people saying that will buy cards or coins when it's cheaper, but when the crash comes, only a few have courage to buy
For example, rx480, 470 were dumped a few years ago, pretty cheap, and I saw some guys buying to gaming pc, but I did not see someone buying to mine, because there were no profits to be made...

Do both if you aren't in a very tight situation, have some USDT and keep mining with what you have left, which ever works out you won't be missing out in both sides, this bear market will be around for a year and a half before things start settling again but I think 2023 will be worse, a very bad recession is coming.

I have 2 x 3080, I paid 800 usd for each in january 2021, I spent 100 usd to change thermal pads on them, I never bought them to mine, so I will not sell, yes I'm planning to buy 1 x 4090 for that new samsung monitor g8 1196 mini leds at 3840x2160 4k 240hz for gaming.

It will get to a stage where buying your favourite tokens will save you time and energy instead of mining that's why it's better to have some money available with you and also keep mining with what you have left, you still have a good chance to sell some of your GPU right now before its too late.

If power cost is equal to mining revenue, all the coins go to paying the power bill, and zero are left to HODL. On top of that, the video cards depreciate over time, especially during a bear market. A $380 RTX 3060 card can easily be worth just $200 if ETH went to $900 or ETH went to PoS.

That's why I'm selling half my video cards now, in the hope of building even more rigs if/when the real bear market starts. GPU prices are still above MSRP.

Exchanges like binances and many others are the main ones that pump scamcoins to make people not see them as scamcoins, so people feel safe to invest in them and then they die but before that binance and other exchanges dump before the coin die, people lose money and then binance and other exchanges create a story about it and stays as it goes, 95% of all altcoins are scamcoins. I lost lot of money in mtgox 2014, almost lost money on btc-e, acted fast on other exchanges before they died, mtgox in 2014 bankruptcy taught me many things.

Also Binance CEO said he lost 1.4 bilion on luna but I'm sure before that he dumped so much luna, he had billions on it, sure he lost small amount of what he had but that he will not tell. One thing I have learned through these years is, exchanges by law are just legal thieves, only leave coins that you are willing to lose. I'm still trying to get my money from mtgox, it's been 8 years and still waiting.

Hehehe, you consider all altcoins equal?

I know it's pretty hard to keep altcoins in a long term portfolio, and many will end with a bag of coins
In 2017 - 2018 I had a lot of cards and I put 1 or 2 to only mine unknown coins to keep and sell after some time, expecting to be like ETH worthing a few dollars and them more than 100 USD at that time, and I ended with a bag of coins like I said above 

BUT there are projects of coins, like BNB and SOLANA as you said as a scam coin, who are supported by exchanges, and in my opinion we can't put in the same category of another coins, because it's a coin people will use daily to pay fees on the exchange or to run a game, example of Solana, and Polygon is another coin. There's as incentive to use
Just my opinion, and I don't like POS coins

Raven coin is a project I thought would be dead right now, but even 4 years later people are still mining and supporting the project, ETC classic is another example for me, a coin holding some value even after some cycles.

If next bull market comes then bitcoin always rise first, altcoins rise much later, plus on the bear market most altcoins die and then next bullrun scammers create new ones. So is never a good thing to keep altcoins, also people buy altcoins prior bull market, usually on pre bull market and sell them all as soon as they know bull market pump and dump are done for.


The thing is, most coins, I'd say 95%, are pump and dumps, most altcoins had a 20 or more times rise and then had the same 20 or more times dump, anyway dump is not over yet, will get a lot worse. For example ravencoin, prior bull market 2021, it was 0.007, now around $0.025, it got as high as $0.30 and soon ravencoin might crash to 0.007 again or even lower. This is pow coins, imagine pos coins which are true scam. Don't touch pos coins, if pow coins are bad imagine pos coins, aka luna, solana and other scamcoins.

No one can answer your question in the right way, because none of us can say what coin is more worth in the future.

I checked the  top100 coins today and dezember 2017, many of this coins are less or same worth like in 2017.

My advice = keep mining if your electricity bill is less than your monthly mining rewards, pay your electricity bill with crypto and hodl and swap the rest into BTC and HODL it

What to do in bear market???

Keep mining and HOLD. I have been mining since 2013 and always sold as i needed cash. If only i had held the coins i mined i would be a multi millionaire now. It's too late now to make a lot of money imo but you can still make good money but only if you hold for better prices in bull markets

Yes maybe you have more money in bank account - higher chance to go x5 - x10 or more with altcoins, but also more risk to lose all - Terra Luna  

Higher chance for big win = higher risk to lose all.


I don´t call it a bear market at this time, but the top is over, next top come in 3 years - maybe 2, but not earlier. People still believe we are in the "Super Cycle" or that we on the road, same happen in 2017/2018, people think this are normal correction and yes i agree, but this are bear market / downtrend market corrections. Price range between 20000 - 25000 dollar is really untraded - we will see this price again, the question is - when it happens.

It sure looks like that,I also see very few newly created topics,when it was the top,a lot of people were creating new topics daily asking for help and also for advice on what GPU they should buy,how much money is considered normal to pay for that specific GPU,what was the max price anyone here would pay over MSRP for the specific card and so on the same for ASIC miners.The fact that Bitcoin price is having a lot of difficulty to bypass that 33.000 dollars mark from quite a lot of time can also be considered by many a vibe of a bear market.

The truth is though that we are far from a bear market as long as the price it stays above 30.000 dollars,I consider this to be a good price overall for Bitcoin and for people to continue to mine it,of course those who see value in this and believe in another bull run coming hopefully soon rather than late.

I still don't get it, why are you so against altcoins? All thanks go to altcoins because they are the reason why I have more money in my bank account and also some BTC in my wallet, it won't be possible for me without altcoin investments, I made more money from altcoins that what I am trying to say.

It is difficult to buy at the bottom or to sell at the top, need to find the medium term, buying 20% as it goes down on every new bottom from now is good, for example btc bottom is 25k at the moment, if it goes below that then wait 2 days or so then buy 20% and repeat the process as for myself given the current market conditions, I will start buying bottoms below 15k, I'm not buying altcoins.

Is it possible that 2023 will be more bloody than 2022 bear market? I am trying to look back into the past, I think buying 50% of my portfolio in September 2022 and leaving the rest 50% for 2023 is the best strategy here, what do you think Sir Metroid.