Topic: What to do in a bear market - page 3. (Read 748 times)

Every cycle BTC will rise x times less and less than previous, this cycle was 23 times, next time, if btc rises 10 times consider good enough, 20 times top but everything depends where the bottom will be, to me  bottom will be lower than the cost to mine one btc which at moment is around 10k ~ 15k. This will crash a lot yet, this is pre bear market with lot of small bulltraps and then a huge bulltrap before going to hehell then we will know the bottom. September 2022 - March 2023 we will see the bottom.

I’m already getting bear market vibes when I come to the bitcointalk mining section and there are only 5 active topics in the last 24 hours.

When the forum starts to become dead, usually means the bottom should be near. I remember both the 2015 and early 2019 bottom had similar activities. People assumed crypto was dead, moved on and then it bottomed.

The cycle top is usually when mining section is very busy and everyday we get topics like “how can I mine Bitcoin on my laptop”. Like we had almost daily about 6 months ago.

This is evident with crypto casino's too. One of the rudimentary ways of noticing if the crypto market is squeezing the casino businesses hard or not is by tracking the way they campaign in the forum through signature campaigns. A few of them are already pulling out as compared to who things were last year.

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If we are to look at the halving previous cycles, we have only 3 price peaks  with 2 confirmed bottoms to consider. The price growth in the early years before the 2013 bull run obviously had to be more than 100 since the bottom was $0. The next cycle, it was just around 36 times since BTC bottomed at around $530.

It is easy to trade the past 

1500 USD was a good price to sell, and at that moment, was a good decision for sure, because a crash could occur and again people could ended with a bag of coins
After lived a bear market, I learned that we can't be too greedy, and we can always leave some %, like 5 or 10% to sell in an incredible pump.
This is for altcoins and mining to pay costs, for BTC I believe in a better future, and for ETH sometimes I have bad feelings about, but in the long run it should be good enough to maintain the 2nd place and the main altcoin for some years.
And if you hold a coin and mine at a loss just for secure network and support the project I also really respect that.

Bear market is always confusing, some say we are already in a bear market, some say we're not yet, but in my opinion, we are for some time and NOBODY knows the future, maybe the cycle will not repeat again and we can start some run to ATH again...

Everything rose too fast, it was insane, eth did not but altcoins rose too much, so, because altcoins rose too fast a huge crash was imminent, so I sold before that, yea there are phases but insanity goes beyond market phases, crypto is 99% speculation, 1% is error. I bought some altcoins few months ago and sold them when I saw 4 times rise and then all crashed much much lower than what I bought. When on profit, sell, there are levels of greedy, I was not too greedy, yes I was greedy because I got almost 20 times profit and it was enough for me, aiming higher than that is delusion but each to its own.

I always found it curious why you did this. I know you bought your eth at around $80 so selling at $1500 was a huge profit, but why only target around $100+ above the previous ath from back in 2018? Why didn't you dca out, ie. layer out, say 25% at $1500, 25% at $2500, etc.?

Concerning pos, I did not say eth pos would have come in 2021 or even 2022, to me I was always very clear that it would come one year or at least 18 months prior the next pre bullrun. So as btc halves in april 2024, my prediction was that pos would have come starting 2023 onwards, so I was on point on that too as far as is going, the issue that I always pointed out was about buying gpus for more than msrp and we know what happened after january 2021, gpu prices jumped 4 times x msrp and that was insane, no way I would have recommended anybody to buy gpus at such inflated prices but like I said the ones that have bought gpus at inflated prices and sold at top then they won big, the ones that bought gpus at inflated prices and have not sold at top they have not even reached roi because difficulty increased so much and price decreased so much that reaching roi would be close to impossible if people sell their eth now, eth difficulty in february 2021 was 5th's, now 15th's, so basically you are earning 3 times less eth now than in february 2021 and price is pretty much the same.

Given the difficulty at that time 5th's, you were earning with a 3070 0.06 eth per month, today you are earning 0.02 eth per month with 60 mhs and this i'm not even accounting the gpus were lhr which would be 30%~50% less earnings per month and many people bought lhrs 3070 gpus for 2k each. Anyway my point is, 0.06 x 1 first month + 0.05 next month and ever decreasing earnings to the point of 0.02 today makes an average of 0.035 per month x 14 months average = 0.5 eth, eth right now 1.8k, 0.5 eth = 900 usd, people paid on 3070 around 1600 usd, so they never even reached roi up to now if they did not sell close to the top or at top. So the people who bought gpus at msrp or lower earned big and reached roi and that was what I recommended people to do so.

https://whattomine.com/coins/151-eth-ethash?hr=60&p=0.0&fee=2.0&cost=0.1&cost_currency=USD&hcost=1600.0&span_br=1h&span_d=24&commit=Calculate
https://etherscan.io/chart/difficulty

Not knocking what you say just pointing out you have been negative since jan 2021.

and that pos seems to be pushed out one more month to sep 2022 not aug. 2022

We both agree that a slide 🛝 will happen but it is more or less when it happens we disagree on.

I am thinking winter 2022 / 2023.

Say Dec-Jan time frame.

I did not call a bear market since januay 2021, I called a huge crash because altcoin prices rose too fast, beyond anything possible, some coins rose 50 times in days and that is insane, and when I see that I will call that a huge crash is coming. There are phases in this market, I'm not even calling this a bear market yet, this is a pre bear market, yeah the next one is a bear market. Yes, I said not to buy gpus if more than msrp and I said not to buy coins because scammers were pumping coins to more than 50x. I said to sell coins and get that 50x scammers pumped, I myself sold 80% of my eth I had at the end of january 2021 at 1500 usd. So you are right, if people bought gpus before january 2021 and still mining to this day june 2022 did profit big but only if they sold close to the top if not then they have not because gpus prices at that month rose too much too, remember you only profit if you sell, eth at 4.8k top was good eth at 1.7k is bad and will get worse.

Listen to the Bears.

Metroid has called a bear market since Jan 2021 or 12+6 = 18 months in a row.

Every one of those months a person mining eth with a nvidia series gpu and 15 cent power turned a profit.


Lets see 3090 burns 300 watts  or 7.2 kwatts a day lets say 8 kwatts a day.say 8 x 15 cents  it earns 110 x 2.3 cents

so earns 2.53
and burns 1.20 at 15 cents

daily profit = 1.33 a day. this is not bear for mining

in fact

it burns

80 cents at 10 cent power

and

40 cents at 5 cent power


so

1.33 15 cent power for next 75 days = 100 profit
1.73 10 cent power for next 75 days = 130 profit
2.13   5 cent power for next 75 days = 160 profit

the numbers above are most likely surely going to happen

and they would mean that miners will have had a solid 21 months in a row of making money.

One or 2 more delays of pos now sept say Jan 1 would mean 24 or 25 months of profit since Metroid called bear.

Not knocking Metroid as we have a new condition here

bear/crab for investor/trader dec 2020 =28k June 2022 = 29k

bull/crab for miner same time zone


this is actually new as I see it.

The reason it has never "crashed below the previous all-time high " is because btc grew 100 or more times on previous cycles, this cycle it rose only 23 times, bottom to top. So yeah lets see what happens this time around.

I don't think so. I think the price can go much lower than this, especially if Bitcoin price goes < $25k. Either way, I didn't short it to speculate. I shorted it to hedge the risk of coin prices going down further.

Shorting Coinbase is way too late right now. Most likely the stock has bottomed or it will bottom pretty soon. Best time to short it was during launch.

Generally when the bull market is strong, many exchanges hire tons of extra staff. Because they get flooded with applications, support, etc.

But in a bear market, nobody is interested in crypto and they start to lay people off. Happens every cycle.

Yes, excellent observation!

I also believe, the war between Russia x Ukraine is very relevant and that it could impact perhaps the entire population on earth, directly and indirectly!
Not to mention, this war could get worse, as there will be the possibility of other countries getting involved.

A few years ago I was also interested in buying some video cards to mine, but with the great popularity of mining, it became unfeasible, because most of the video cards became scarce and with that the price of these equipments increased.

I even want to go back to mining, but in my opinion, I believe it will be more valid when the migration from ETH changes to PoS, with that, there will be great opportunities to acquire vga's with an inviting price!

I sold 90% of my coins back in May last year when BTC was ~$45k. I don't think that was a bad price, considering I bought the coins when BTC was ~$5k. It's impossible to time the market perfectly. I thought things would keep going down from there, which is why I didn't build any mining rigs then. But I didn't foresee the second bull run later that year, which is fine, because I profited enough.

So this market was actually similar to 2018, where there was a bull trap in May-June. I fell for that bull trap and signed a lease to rent mining colocation space for 6 months, hoping that we could keep mining because the price would at least stagnate if not go up. But the teddy bear left and the grizzly bear showed up, ETH went to $90 and the rest is history.

History has it that BTC has never crashed below the previous all-time high after a new cycle. Let's wait and see what happens this time round, but as far as I know, we are already in a bear market. Most people realize it when it's too later.

That's right. I think the only profitable move these days is to short Coinbase, Riot Blockchain or Marathon on the stock market. I was actually applying to jobs at these kinds of companies a month ago, but thank god I pulled the plug on them.

Given the market trend at the moment it does not seem appropriate to buy new gpus it is better to wait for their price to drop, instead it is better to stock up on altcoins both by buying them cheap and by mining them

Many exchanges have been laying off people because they know this is going to get worse and worse, the truth is exchanges know more than even any crypto TA because they know if there are more buys or sells, there is a reason they are laying people off. Anyway, I hope you trolls sold some coins to get through the bear market if not then dont miss the opportunity on the last bulltrap that is coming in few weeks or months, is not going to be easy, during previous bear markets were never easy anyway.

Now is a bad time to buy video cards because they are still expensive. It is probably better to wait for the news about the end of ethereum mining and buy a mining farm at a good price. But this is provided that 1 kilowatt costs no more than 6 cents.