Topic: What will happen when the 21M bitcoin will be minned - page 4. (Read 26066 times)

So you think ixCoin can go up as we approach their final days of mining?  Should be interesting.

Yeah sorry I skipped the "at a profit" part of your sentence.
I thought you wanted to sell at a loss.

How could I short ixCoin?

I am being cool about this, I have been adding ixCoin for 3 months while everyone is telling me I'm stupid and crazy.  I see the coin much higher so I keep buying as I get more BTC.

Now I'm taking a break and just holding what I have (about 2%) cause I'm trying to buy some ASICS before we get ETF news and the lines go around the block and the ASICS prices through the ceiling.

Now wait hold on.
I don't know much about about ixcoin but I do know its 13 in the coin market cap.
I also know that they will all be mined by 2015.
Don't short 30BTC worth of ixcoins, that sounds nuts.  
Just hold and don't let pump and dumpers get to you.
Also the ROI of ASIC miners is not a guarantee.
Just keep a cool head and don't be rash man. 

1) we will all be dead a long time before

2) I guess miners will earn more BTC via fees than by block reward, this, within a decade

3) unless BTC worth nothing, and are'nt used anymore, there will always be miner to supprt the network.  I'm sure of that because I'll be one of those

I could dump them at a decent profit now but I cannot do that unless my view changes.  And no, 30 BTC is a lot of money for me right now since I'm not even working a regular job at the moment.

 Not to mention I wanna buy an ASICS rig which means I've gotta spend another 50 BTC in the next few days.

This crypto thing ain't cheap.  I sure hope I'm right on either the ASICS rig move, ixCoin or preferably, Both.

I think we'll find out before this year is over - as I feel we'll get news regarding a Bitcoin ETF by then.

Wow man, I've never seen it put in numbers before.  That's incredible and I think it's gonna be even better than that.  So it's definitely worth it to invest in some ASICS gear.  If that gear pays itself off then anything made after that is free money.

Thanks!

i havent read all the posts, but my reply to the topic is this.

unless governments change, more tree's are planted and we move away from fossil fuels. the least of our grandkids worries are what happens with the last mined satoshi

ixcoin is worthless and I can't believe you really bought 30BTC worth of them.  You should dump them ASAP unless 30 BTC is nothing to you.  You're just part of the dump.

Ouch yeah that will throw the average off.   If we exclude the last 10 days then average fee per block in Sept was 0.28 BTC per block or 1.1% of total miner compensation, not as impressive as 2.5% but still fees as a % of BTC revenue tripled in a year.   One interesting note is excluding those accidental high fee txs, the average fee per tx in BTC terms actually declined.  That makes sense because the min mandatory fee was reduced 80%.  An interesting factoid is that compared to a year ago a higher % of tx are paying a fee which IMHO is a good sign.  So more txs, lower fee per paying tx but greater portion of tx paid some fee.  In USD terms, fees paid to miners rose from $300 per day in Oct 2012 to ~$5000 per day in Sept 2013.

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees-usd?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7×pan=&scale=1&address=

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/1cfsaiyavfk12dnzpzalcrsp9jjwdk26fx-stop-making-transactions-296217


http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Higher tx volume = higher tx per block = higher total tx fees per block.  Even if the fee per tx remains low.  Measuring it in dollars makes no difference.  If fees are 20% of miner total compensation then are 20% of the total compensation in BTC or USD regardless of the exchange rate.

Fees per tx don't have to be high for the total revenue to rise.  As a complete hypothetical in USD terms today miners collect (collectively) ~$180M USD in combined fees and subsidies.  PayPal has a tx volume of ~50 tps and today Bitcoin has a tx volume of ~0.6 tps.  If Bitcoin grew to be as large as PayPal and the average fee per tx was $0.02 that would be $31B a year in miner compensation or >150x higher than today even if the subsidy was zero.


Not possible to say.  How many tx will there be per block 100 years from now?  However if we look forward just 3 years and say IF tx volume keeps growing, and % of txs which are paying grows, and the block subsidy is halved then the % of miner total compensation will rise.  Even if the % of tx that pay a fee doesn't increase AND tx volume doesn't' increase after the subsidy cut rise fees be ~5% of miner total compensation.

20%?

But the fees in the end have to be cheaper and more efficient than banker fees.  So given the difficulty will reach some mind numbing number, how much then can a miner expect to earn mining bitcoins, in real dollar terms?

So if I have a strong ASICS miner and today I'm getting say 1 BTC per day, how much would a similar investment get me when there are no more coins?

There is a caveat:  people will be able to merge mine many coins so in that case, mining Bitcoin for even a nominal fee would still be a good incentive.

And in that case, people may choose to mine ixCoin when there are no more coins to mine given it doesn't cost anything extra to merge mine it along with Bitcoin.

In one year the % of miner compensation paid by fees for Bitcoin has increased from 0.3% to 2.5%.
http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

Oct 2012.  
30 BTC per day in fees. 144 blocks per day.  
Average fees per block 0.21 BTC.  
Subsidy per block 50.
Total miner compensation per block 50.21 BTC
Fees as a share of total compensation: 0.4%

Sept 2013.  
90 BTC per day in fees. 144 blocks per day.
Average fees per block 0.62 BTC.
Subsidy per block 50.
Total miner compensation per block 50.21 BTC
Fees as a share of total compensation: 2.5%

This trend has been continuing for a long time.  If we look back further to say Oct 2011 fees were ~ 0.02 BTC per block or 0.0004% of total miner compensation.

The rise in fees as a share of total compensation is due to three factors
a) avg fee per tx.  while the min fee has gone down by a factor of 100x the % of tx paying a fee (any fee) has increased
b) number of tx per day/block.   ~ 100 per day in 2009, ~ 400 per day in 2010, ~5,000 per day in 2011, ~18,000 per day in 2012, ~45,000 per day in 2013
c) the block subsidy decreasing from 50 BTC to 25 BTC (and will decrease to 12.5 BTC in 2016).

As long as those trends continue it is possible that fees will be more than 20% of miner revenue not in a 100 years but by the time of the next subsidy.  As an example.  TX volume in 2016 is 5x higher than today or 300K tx per day.  Average fee per tx is 0.004 BTC (double today).  Block subsidy is reduced to 12.5 BTC.   That puts fees per block at ~4 BTC, the subsidy is 12.5 BTC for total miner reward of 16.5 BTC.  Fees are 4/16.5 = 24%.

Right, but unless there's a massive network, these fees will be peanuts.  And even with Bitcoin, I doubt any fees will compare so the actual bitcoins one could mine.

Transaction fees will go up, to replace the block rewards.

Ok, I've only been around for 4 months so I don't know what ixCoin was once selling at.  I can't trust graphs since so many show flawed prices, like $10 for devcoin.

But for the last 4 months, ixCoin has surprised me in that it has moved opposite thn the way I would have expected it to.

But I admit this could have been from outside factors such as pumpers or it could just be a bad case of confirmation bias.

This does worry me a bit as I've put over 30 BTC into it just based on the feeling bankers will want to do a second ETF and ixCoin would be a good fit either by itself or in a basket of alt coins. 

The graph is on money supply not value. ixCoin HAS gone down if you look at it on a long timeframe.  Down by 99% or more.  In the short term pump and dumpers can easily make moves of 100% or more .... until the dump.  None of that has anything to do with value.


The money supply is well known and predictable for both coins and is based on the subsidy algorithm.  ixcoin money supply went up faster (i.e. higher annual inflation) because it was designed to do that.  Still both of those graphs are only an estimate as due to network growth blocks can be found faster than expected over a short period of time.

Well, I have been looking into all these things, but there are no definitive answers. 

Your answers at least carry factual biased theories which of course worry me.  But I will stay invested in ixCoin because the ETF 2.0 theory of mine still feels right.  But I would feel much better if the expected outcome in 18 months would appear less bleak.

Thanks for your input.

What an interesting graph, man.

Why is there such an inverse correlation between ixCoin and Bitcoin when in fact ixCoin is printing much more coins and has way less users and miners while Bitcoin has a much larger velocity and less and less coins being minted.

This graph confuses me even more as I'd expect ixCoin's price to go the exact opposite direction, given its supply is growing at such a more rapid rate with near zero support and near zero velocity.

Can anybody explain this phenomenon?  Because I cannot think of any coin with such little interest with a higher current inflation rate that would chart like this against Bitcoin, the last few years.  And at such a consistent rate.


What's more odd, when Bitcoin went to $68 a couple months ago, ixCoin actually got cut in half and as Bitcoin doubled over the last 2 months, over 90% of the coins out there imploded while ixCoin went up some 30% higher relative to Bitcoin.

Once again, it simply makes no sense.


TIA!