What will happen when the 21M bitcoin will be minned - page 5.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 02:41:03 PM

Ok, then what do you guys think will happen in the case of other coins, such as ixCoin, where there will be a sudden and sharp drop-off in supply.

ixcoin will die. It has no support, no infrastructure, no services, no merchant adoption. The supply will go max monetary inflation to 0% inflation overnight. If it was robust and heavily adopted it might be able to absorb that kind of shock but it isn't so it will do as well as a egg going from 50 mph to 0 instantly when it hits a brick wall.

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There's a lot I like about ixCoin but the fact I don't know what will happen in 18 months does worry me a bit.

That is the the kind of thing that would be useful to look into before heavily acquiring the coin.

Vlad2Vlad

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on September 24, 2013, 02:37:39 PM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 12:58:56 PM

My question is, what will happen to the price of Bitcoins given there will be a sudden and sharp drop in supply?

There won't be a sudden and sharp drop in supply. The largest nominal drop in daily new generation has already occured. Ever subsidy cut going forward will have less and less of an impact.

Ok, great point. And thanks for the good attitude.

Ok, then what do you guys think will happen in the case of other coins, such as ixCoin, where there will be a sudden and sharp drop-off in supply.

I'm not mining right now so its hard for me to see what I would do.

What would the miners here do? Would you guys keep mining ixCoin for its paltry fees? Would you remove it from your list? Would you dump the coins beforehand, or would you buy coins beforehand thinking the value will go much higher since there will be no more coins being minted.

There's a lot I like about ixCoin but the fact I don't know what will happen in 18 months does worry me a bit.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 12:58:56 PM

My question is, what will happen to the price of Bitcoins given there will be a sudden and sharp drop in supply?

There won't be a sudden and sharp drop in supply. The largest nominal drop in daily new generation has already occured. Ever subsidy cut going forward will have less and less of an impact. Already today the effect of new coins on trading is minimal.

Vlad2Vlad

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Quote from: skeltoac on September 24, 2013, 01:22:59 PM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 12:47:24 PM

So let me ask again, what will happen to the value of Bitcoin when There's no more Bitcoins to mine? TIA

Mining rewards decline so gradually that any effect will occur long before the last satoshi is mined.

When the reward went from 50 to 25, what happened to the value as a result of that? Did it even matter?

I think the only way it matters is if mining is over-centralized and the fairness of the system is undermined.

Ok, so we don't have to wait over 100 years to find out - but that still doesn't answer the question.

And it does matter. This is a fiat and the constant supply will simply die off. Something of great effect will happen, but I honestly can't tell in which direction it will go.

I was hoping to skim some insight from some of the more senior guys on here or some of the guys who understand Bitcoin and coding much more than me. But so far I have not seen any real insightful answers, just pure guesses which I have plenty of myself.

Thanks for your input!

Vlad2Vlad

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Quote from: millsdmb on September 24, 2013, 01:01:20 PM

I do not believe that mining difficulty or block rewards correlate to the fiat value of btc.

It does indirectly. The block rewards, or lack thereof, directly affects the supply which then affects the value of any fiat.

But if the bait to mine Bitcoin is all of a sudden gone, will people simply choose to go to a different coin which will reward mining and totally abandon Bitcoin? That's the dilemma here.

skeltoac

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Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 12:47:24 PM

So let me ask again, what will happen to the value of Bitcoin when There's no more Bitcoins to mine? TIA

Mining rewards decline so gradually that any effect will occur long before the last satoshi is mined.

When the reward went from 50 to 25, what happened to the value as a result of that? Did it even matter?

I think the only way it matters is if mining is over-centralized and the fairness of the system is undermined.

millsdmb

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I do not believe that mining difficulty or block rewards correlate to the fiat value of btc.

Vlad2Vlad

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Right guys, I know the mechanics of it and the idea of mining for fees.

My question is, what will happen to the price of Bitcoins given there will be a sudden and sharp drop in supply?

Will it skyrocket even more or will it collapse given the real benefit to mining it will be gone?

This is why I brought up ixCoin, because it's set in fast forward to see what will happen to Bitcoin. But I would like to figure this out before I keep adding more ixCoin to my portfolio. It is my favorite coin but it is risky given nobody seems to know what will happen when those coins are all gone from the mining world.

millsdmb

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miners will work for tx fees...

cp1

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Stop using branwallets

Transaction fees will still be mined
People with bitcoins won't want to see them become worthless so they will spend some % of their net worth to "secure the network"

Vlad2Vlad

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So let me ask again, what will happen to the value of Bitcoin when There's no more Bitcoins to mine? TIA

Vlad2Vlad

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Quote from: zebedee on September 24, 2013, 10:03:19 AM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 06:19:43 AM

Can we get a debate going about this, I'd like to have an idea since I've been accumulating ixCoin which is set to run out of mined coins in about 18 months.

Thanks!

It's long since run out of value. But your attempts to pump it up are impressive. I suggest you find something better to spend your time on. Write it off and move on.

You've now twice said I'm trying to pump ixCoin.

Here's me adding at 9802 just last week. With ZERO SELLS. Is this what a pumper does after owning 2%?

Let's stop the silly chatter.

Vlad2Vlad

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Quote from: zebedee on September 24, 2013, 10:03:19 AM

Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 06:19:43 AM

Can we get a debate going about this, I'd like to have an idea since I've been accumulating ixCoin which is set to run out of mined coins in about 18 months.

Thanks!

It's long since run out of value. But your attempts to pump it up are impressive. I suggest you find something better to spend your time on. Write it off and move on.

Pump what?

Hahhahaaa.

I could have sold and doubled my money last week (ixCoin) but I was actually adding as high as 9802, and I was buying large blocks. I'm now a near 2% holder.

So do I sound like a pumper when I'm going around asking people if they have any ixCoin to sell? I really want the price to stay lower a while longer but that's getting hard to do.

niothor

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in defi we trust

Quote from: Meni Rosenfeld on September 24, 2013, 10:36:11 AM

(We have until 2049 to decide if we want to increase the precision, thus making the final amount closer to 21M.)

Quote from: niothor on September 24, 2013, 10:21:26 AM

After 2060 less than 2 bitcoins will be mined in nearly 80 years.

You listed the amounts per day. There are 1441 days in 4 years, so actually, 2563.4553 BTC will be mined after 13 halvings.

My bad , still that's around 0.01% (?) of the total number of bitcoins.

polarhei

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Firing it up

There are exchanges, strong being is reduced to keep stable. Additionally, there may be another forked for improvements to add up to 92 to suit the planet. The last bitcoin never be mined but close to the target due to exponential nature.

Meni Rosenfeld

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Quote from: KSGuy on September 24, 2013, 10:08:25 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on June 19, 2012, 10:05:16 PM

Quote from: knight22 on June 19, 2012, 09:33:28 PM

the 21 million bitcoin will be mined in 15 years... I will be certainly not dead. Well I hope so!

You might want to recalculate that. Technically we will never reach 21 million coins but it will be a lot longer than 15 years before the subsidy goes to zero.

I thought the last coin wouldn't be mined until year 2140?

At least that's the number I've been telling my friends.

With the current protocol, the last satoshi will be mined in block 6929999, approximately in the year 2140. But at that point we will not have 21M bitcoins, only 20,999,999.9769.

The minting will be completely insignificant a long time before that, of course.

(We have until 2049 to decide if we want to increase the precision, thus making the final amount closer to 21M.)

Quote from: niothor on September 24, 2013, 10:21:26 AM

After 2060 less than 2 bitcoins will be mined in nearly 80 years.

You listed the amounts per day. There are 1441 days in 4 years, so actually, 2563.4553 BTC will be mined after 13 halvings.

niothor

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Quote from: KSGuy on September 24, 2013, 10:08:25 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on June 19, 2012, 10:05:16 PM

Quote from: knight22 on June 19, 2012, 09:33:28 PM

the 21 million bitcoin will be mined in 15 years... I will be certainly not dead. Well I hope so!

You might want to recalculate that. Technically we will never reach 21 million coins but it will be a lot longer than 15 years before the subsidy goes to zero.

I thought the last coin wouldn't be mined until year 2140?

At least that's the number I've been telling my friends.

Found this : (bitcoins mined /day)

Halving 1 (2012) : 3600.00000000 #Halving was November 2012
Halving 2 (2016) : 1800.00000000
Halving 3 (2020) : 900.00000000
Halving 4 (2024) : 450.00000000
Halving 5 (2028) : 225.00000000
Halving 6 (2032) : 112.50000000
Halving 7 (2036) : 56.25000000
Halving 8 (2040) : 28.12500000
Halving 9 (2044) : 14.06250000
Halving 10 (2048) : 7.03125000
Halving 11 (2052) : 3.51562500
Halving 12 (2056) : 1.75781250
Halving 13 (2060) : 0.87890625
Halving 14 (2064) : 0.43945312
Halving 15 (2068) : 0.21972656
Halving 16 (2072) : 0.10986328
Halving 17 (2076) : 0.05493164
Halving 18 (2080) : 0.02746582
Halving 19 (2084) : 0.01373291
Halving 20 (2088) : 0.00686646
Halving 21 (2092) : 0.00343323
Halving 22 (2096) : 0.00171661
Halving 23 (2100) : 0.00085831
Halving 24 (2104) : 0.00042915
Halving 25 (2108) : 0.00021458
Halving 26 (2112) : 0.00010729
Halving 27 (2116) : 0.00005364
Halving 28 (2120) : 0.00002682
Halving 29 (2124) : 0.00001341
Halving 30 (2128) : 0.00000671
Halving 31 (2132) : 0.00000335
Halving 32 (2136) : 0.00000168

After 2060 less than 2 bitcoins will be mined in nearly 80 years.

KSGuy

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on June 19, 2012, 10:05:16 PM

Quote from: knight22 on June 19, 2012, 09:33:28 PM

the 21 million bitcoin will be mined in 15 years... I will be certainly not dead. Well I hope so!

You might want to recalculate that. Technically we will never reach 21 million coins but it will be a lot longer than 15 years before the subsidy goes to zero.

I thought the last coin wouldn't be mined until year 2140?

At least that's the number I've been telling my friends.

zebedee

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Quote from: Vlad2Vlad on September 24, 2013, 06:19:43 AM

Can we get a debate going about this, I'd like to have an idea since I've been accumulating ixCoin which is set to run out of mined coins in about 18 months.

Thanks!

It's long since run out of value. But your attempts to pump it up are impressive. I suggest you find something better to spend your time on. Write it off and move on.

Vlad2Vlad

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So there were only 2600 miners last year?

I thought we had a few hundred thousand miners now but it looks like we're probably under 10,000.

So I have 2 questions:

1) If I'm right and Bitcoin gets the ETF license, we should see a massive inflow of miners coming in and with ASICS getting so cheap and soon on real mass quantities, and not BFL "lie quantities", we should see a massive jump in difficulty.

So where do you guys see difficulty going next year if we get an ETF license.

And...

2) What do you guys see happening to the price of Bitcoin when there will not be anymore coins to mine?

It's hard to predict as that had never happened to before.

Can we get a debate going about this, I'd like to have an idea since I've been accumulating ixCoin which is set to run out of mined coins in about 18 months.

Thanks!

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