You forgot to put a rational thought in your argument because at the current rate of ~$240, I dont see any reason for the number of miners to keep on increasing and pump up the difficulty into such high number while they are already losing their chance to breakeven if the current diff is double of the current one
right now for $240 to be profitable at today's difficulty, a miner needs to have an efficiency of .77 J/GH if they pay 13.5 cents per kWh. You can buy an Antminer S5 and run it at .5 J/GH so you would be profitable and
keep adding hashpower. As for the bolded part in your post, Thats what my point about my previous post is. I should have make it clearer I guess.
If people keep on increasing hash power, there will be a peak point that it wont be profittable anymore at the current $240 ~. Therefore your argument is invalid about the 210 billion difficulty. I have stated in my previous post ( the bolded part ) that with the current difficulty x2 people will be having no chance to break even at the current rate and somewhat reaching 210 billion is impossible
What makes you think people will keep on increasing their hashrate till 210 billion anyway ? Anyway miners isnt the controller of the
BTC price. Even without miners dumping, we have seen the price is pretty much unstable and volatille. Take it in your notes that traders are the one that control the price not solely miners
i'm not making an argument, I am making a calculation.
IF we hold electricity cost and energy efficiency constant, the mining network would have to grow big enough to increase the difficulty to 210 billion IN ORDER for mining only to be worth it if the price is $1,000.
How's that? It's a hypothetical but it is revealing.
Theoretically your calculation is correct but as I have stated there isnt any rational thought in it. Firstly it is due to that no one will be keep increasing hashrate if it isnt anymore profittable for him to mine as I have stated previously that even 2x of the current hashrate will no be inevitable anymore to mine.
Secondly it is that you are pointing it all towards miners as you have left out the most important things that it is not the miners that control the price but it is traders that control it.
Furthermore , Id like to add that
BTC is dead once we reach that 210billion difficulty while we are still hanging at the current rate. The reason would be that , miners is needed to keep on finding blocks for confirmation therefore Id love to see who will be keeping their miners only for the sole reason of confirmations while on the other hand he is losing each time his miners is turned on
Therefore the argument about this 210 billion to reach $1000 is pretty much an invalid argument because it is irrational but somewhat true if you are seeing it from the math sides only
