Topic: What would a US recession do to the price of Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 402 times)
Well, that’s how Warren Buffet point of view about having US recession and for me, everyone’s point of view is reasonable. But I believe seeing bitcoin’s high volatility, one thing is certain, bitcoin will definitely undergo price fluctuations based on its macroeconomic conditions or let’s say even the condition of the asset itself. It could go on an upward or downward position, but rest assured the effect will only be temporary.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Am happy Trump won to begin with and if it is going to affect the prices of things or cause a recession, it remains to be seen. The Russia- Ukraine war and the Israel -Hamas war ceased upon his winning and that's a good sign that shows that the economy may get better with time. Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
There's of course a bull run for cryptocurrencies because Trump's son also has a coin he is to launch with the support of his repentant father who now has renewed hope for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
If Trump choose to deport immigrants, America is no longer America that people know.
As far as I know, Trump never claimed that he will get rid off immigrants, and instead illegal immigrants and there's a huge difference between those two. I've heard something like this, if non Europe live in Europe, you're an immigrant, but if non American live in America, you're an American.
Never heard that one, but big difference between Europe and US is that if for example you are born in Europe by illegal immigrant parents, you don't automatically get citizenship (many never get it), while in US you will automatically get it once you are born there.
If Trump choose to deport immigrants, America is no longer America that people know.
I've heard something like this, if non Europe live in Europe, you're an immigrant, but if non American live in America, you're an American.
I've heard something like this, if non Europe live in Europe, you're an immigrant, but if non American live in America, you're an American.
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
The crisis happened in 2007-2009 and 2019-2020, in early days, there's no way to know if US recession affect Bitcoin price, but in 2019-2020, corona virus did affect Bitcoin price, but it was happened not in bull run season, if covid happened in 2021, we can draw the conclusion. For an average American citizen, massive deportations will be good in terms that they'll have higher pay rate, [...]
It will only help your pay rate if you work in very specific industries, doing very specific things, like lower-end construction workers. Construction companies, as a whole, will do much worse since they will have to drastically raise prices, which will reduce demand, meaning they will sell fewer new homes.
And fewer new homes means less sales of all kind of other goods that come with new home formation, etc. etc.
And immigrant labor in the US also deeply affects the food industry, so grocery store prices will rise, and the hospitality industry, so restaurants and hotels will rise in price, which will affect the travel industry.
In the longer run, the US will be a less friendly place to do business since our labor costs will be much higher.
In short, like any government protectionism movement, this will be a positive thing for a small number of workers for a short period of time, but it will hurt everybody else immediately and weaken our economy in the long run.
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That's true, if millions of people lose their jobs, they'll be forced to sell their Bitcoin and altcoins because they need to eat something and if they don't have cash, then they need to convert their assets. Btw during bull run, even if you lose job, it's still hard to sell coins when you see how your asset's value increases. I think that whales will play a major role in Bitcoin's price again because from my understanding, average person would live a poor style instead of selling an asset that they see how it grows every day.
Um, the whales will get out long before ordinary people do
. Unlike ordinary people, they have a staff of economists to help them time the market.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
For an average American citizen, massive deportations will be good in terms that they'll have higher pay rate, better working conditions and more available jobs because migrants work like slaves but at the same time, there is a high chance that their deportation will increase the price on everything, so maybe the life of an average American citizen won't change for better but it's debatable.My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
That's true, if millions of people lose their jobs, they'll be forced to sell their Bitcoin and altcoins because they need to eat something and if they don't have cash, then they need to convert their assets. Btw during bull run, even if you lose job, it's still hard to sell coins when you see how your asset's value increases. I think that whales will play a major role in Bitcoin's price again because from my understanding, average person would live a poor style instead of selling an asset that they see how it grows every day. Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Buffett's stock sales this year, including huge sales of Apple and Bank of America, would appear more related to caution and grasping future opportunities rather than outright panic. Currently, he has loads of money in his pocket, which he could use when the prices go down during economic turmoil. Some have painted that as a warning sign of recession, but certainly not a promise of recession, it is complicated and associated with a number of factors that influence the markets.
The impact of this recession on Bitcoin could happen in some very odd ways, of course, out of work people may liquidate a portion of their assets, including Bitcoin, which could drive down the price of the cryptocurrency in the coming months. However, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a hedge against inflation and a financial meltdown. If there is less confidence in traditional markets, demand for decentralized assets could grow. The relation between crypto and economic downturns isn't directly proportional, instead, it's an idea of safety during turmoil. This is to say that while moves from Buffett and economic shifts will not go unnoticed, Bitcoin might actually be resilient or thrive in the face of global sentiment and adoption trends.
The impact of this recession on Bitcoin could happen in some very odd ways, of course, out of work people may liquidate a portion of their assets, including Bitcoin, which could drive down the price of the cryptocurrency in the coming months. However, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a hedge against inflation and a financial meltdown. If there is less confidence in traditional markets, demand for decentralized assets could grow. The relation between crypto and economic downturns isn't directly proportional, instead, it's an idea of safety during turmoil. This is to say that while moves from Buffett and economic shifts will not go unnoticed, Bitcoin might actually be resilient or thrive in the face of global sentiment and adoption trends.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
That is the thing, he could be right or wrong, we will never know what is going to happen, so he is betting on himself, so be it.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
We have seen it all, and yet Bitcoin holds it's own against this recession buy having it's bull run no matter what.
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Just suck it in, right now we are in the bull run, till next year. But after that, in 2026, Bitcoin will have to rest and start all over again, meaning we will be in the bear market. So the price is going down, very hard, so most likely there will be investors who will shift to stocks and any other assets.
But it doesn't mean that it will cause the downfall of the US economic other Trump, that's how Bitcoin works, we have a 4 year cycle.
If the recession happens then we'll be seeing massive bitcoin adoptors which definitely would lead to increments of bitcoin price
Recall that bitcoin already is potential to store values during an economy downtime as that so I don't see bitcoin diminishing either does it have a potential set back of commodities and economy system.
Bitcoin has potential and can be used as a store of value but I don't see it reaching that stage yet . I mean, with the current volatility , it's still not a perfect store of value and if we accept the reality , most people are just using it as a speculative asset.
Remember the 2022 inflation period 1 year ago ? Bitcoin dumped when inflation peaked , showing it's not the store of value we once thought it was.
Bitcoin is only used as an investment these days so a recession won't be good for it, I think bitcoin will get dumped if recession happens.
The opposite could also happen if the new US administration turns it into a national reserve, but as we all know , Trump's idea is not easy to implement.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD.
Not exactly true... He's doing some restructuring and could be piling cash to make a major investment. He sold some Apple and bought Domino's and Pool (whatever that is).
Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
All of the selling happened before the election. He's taking some massive profits, which is what good investors do. And yeah, the S&P looks crazy overvalued after a giant multi-year run-up.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
Well, that is the question, and the answer is nobody knows for sure because Bitcoin has only existed in a bull market (minus the whole covid fiasco which America printed its way out of pretty quickly).
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Bitcoin is pretty much a toy for the rich, and Wall Street sees it as having the highest risk of all high risk investments. So in a sudden economic downturn the price would indubitably drop due to its eccentricity as an investment class. However, if economic problems are caused by a devaluing dollar, then we could actually see a "flight to bitcoin".
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He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy.
I don't think that the US economy is really dependent on import. Reducing the import of cheap goods, that are produced in China would most likely lead to inflation rather than recession. The illegal immigrants provide cheap labor, but I also don't think that they are really important for the US economy. I expect a new Bitcoin ATH in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a bear market that will continue for a long time frame. Inflation is good for BTC, recession is bad, but I don't expect any major recession in the USA during the Trump administration.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
Trump regime would be a new administration which calls for restructuring of economy infrastructures so at this time we may not be expecting a normalized economy flow not until the tampered system aim is achieved for stability. This shouldn't be a call of Fomo unless Warren Buffett was an anti-Donald Trump then he has to take early concious move to secure his values before he begin to reap what he sow.
I don't think Buffet is "anti-Donald" and I doubt he even cares about Trump either way. He is just looking at the markets and making a judgement.
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If the recession happens then we'll be seeing massive bitcoin adoptors which definitely would lead to increments of bitcoin price
Recall that bitcoin already is potential to store values during an economy downtime as that so I don't see bitcoin diminishing either does it have a potential set back of commodities and economy system.
If that's the case, how do you explain the fact that Bitcoin has roughly tracked overall market momentum over the last few years? When stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down. Today stocks are at ATH, as is Bitcoin.
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So I think governments that would be awaken to adopt bitcoin would be safe if really the recession happens.
If Bitcoin dropped significantly in the market then El Salvador would be bankrupt, the president would be overthrown, and... I really doubt any other country would ever try something like that ever again
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Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
Trump regime would be a new administration which calls for restructuring of economy infrastructures so at this time we may not be expecting a normalized economy flow not until the tampered system aim is achieved for stability. This shouldn't be a call of Fomo unless Warren Buffett was an anti-Donald Trump then he has to take early concious move to secure his values before he begin to reap what he sow.
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
If the recession happens then we'll be seeing massive bitcoin adoptors which definitely would lead to increments of bitcoin price
Recall that bitcoin already is potential to store values during an economy downtime as that so I don't see bitcoin diminishing either does it have a potential set back of commodities and economy system.
Imagine a government as El Salvador adopted bitcoin on what important role bitcoin would play to the improvement of their economy when commodities are faded due to economy infrastructures.
So I think governments that would be awaken to adopt bitcoin would be safe if really the recession happens.
Warren Buffett is selling off stocks this year and hoarding USD. Why? He clearly is expecting an economic downturn from Trump's tariffs and mass deportations. Americans have voted for massive changes to the US economy. Clearly the majority in the US feels these changes will be good for them. But Mr. Buffett clearly doesn't.
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
Maybe he's right, or maybe he's wrong. We'll see.
The question is, if he's right, what will a recession do to the price of Bitcoin?
My own assumption is that it will be very negative for the price. Millions of individual Bitcoin/crypto investors will need to liquidate their holdings if they lose their jobs, or are afraid of losing their jobs. If inflation spikes, then interest rates will also spike, which will diminish economic growth, leading to mass layoffs--and everything Trump has promised will inevitably spike inflation (it remains to be seen if he will really do any of this though).
Is there a bull case for digital currencies during a US economic downturn though? What do you all think?
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