I dont agree with the measure is what it comes down to I guess. I think its inaccurate to consider value like this and I know personally from small trading a market is easily saturated by excess supply, the active turnover relates to market cap and I found a link to justify this some.
I was remembering this from a long time ago but its very relevant and quoted every day in in the S&P 500 stock index. It was changed as of 2004 to reflect the actively traded stock which is correct and I agree with and should be considered for many markets imo.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-move-to-float-adjusted-indexes-will-create-turnover The only asset I can think of where I would say its justified is gold assets, some of this stock has not changed location since the 1930's and in some cases the ownership has been the same that whole time too. It still represents value because the issued notes of each central bank are in some way backed by the asset value deposited and left seemingly liquid.
We are obviously very far into a FIAT money setup now but its still arguable this gold is due payable in exchange for the debt and notes of a country and could be placed in demand for exchange of goods traded. Libya, Venezuela and I think Iran are the most recent examples of large transfers of gold for use in trade even when that gold had not been used in decades.
that doesn't mean $1 trillion in actual capital needs to be re-allocated from other markets. Market cap is much easier to inflate than that based on supply being withheld from market. If there is only 1,000 BTC of ask side liquidity between $10K and $11K, it only takes $10 million to increase the market cap nearly $20 billion.
Basically I agree with you, considering every BTC coin mined previously is not right. Thats deliberate inaccuracy and exaggerates BTC size and something crooked imo like XRP or many alt coins are very off their official figures I guess.
However I think some of those trillions in dollars contained in treasury debt for various countries will never come near crypto; hence we will need to see a larger move elsewhere to make waves of some magnitude in BTC. Someone said in another thread, when central banks start buying crypto; they never will. ECB, BOJ, FED and China will buy SDR which is still Fiat with some gold, they will never be buying privately controlled (as they see it) money.
I have to mention QE programs themselves promote this thinking, most of the new debt produced is held by government itself in public pension schemes. In thirty years when that debt is payable to pensioners who earnt that value, we will find out whats it worth or what was lost.
I feel obliged to say I think everyone should own at least a tiny bit of gold (for decades or pension like holds of value) because of all this incorrect thinking in economies and all of us will lose money from the failures and fallacies in QE.
I need to find a source because I'm not qualified its just my opinion all dollar prices are incorrectly stated hence BTC 250k can occur etc. Its a house of cards waiting to collapse because stating value not openly traded is false, QE is a bad system and counting Satoshi's wallet as BTC market cap is wrong.
If there is only 1,000 BTC of ask side liquidity between $10K and $11K, it only takes $10 million to increase the market cap nearly $20 billion.
This explains why the price declines as supply comes online at the higher prices. Its not available there initially but people will bring it to exchange as they observe the higher price. Thats why I always expect some digestion in the price as we pullback we observe where it might start the next leg higher or hopefully notice if its not holding its ground.
