What's the basis for your Bitcoin speculation?

Alpha Marine

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

For me, history is one thing I base my speculation on. Take for example the halving, I know by history that bitcoin would get to a a new ATH by next year. Also, history makes me know that if certain events happen, it may affect the price of bitcoin negatively or positively. So I take the history of bitcoin seriously.

What I'm not good at is predicting the exact price of bitcoin at a certain time, but I know that after a while it would grow, that's why I prefer holding bitcoin for the long term alone.
I also use the current price of bitcoin to determine the future price of bitcoin. If bitcoin is at 20k today and saying it will get to 100l at the end of year is reaching. I like to be realistic when it comes to speculating bitcoin price.

Captain Corporate

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Why have a basis tho? "Gut feeling" is as good as it gets for most people. I mean we can also base it on the history of bitcoin as well, I believe that we are going to end up with something that will get a lot better. However, we are talking about something that will also take some time as well, so just because we think it will do fine, doesn't mean that we know when that will happen. I, for example, believe that we are going to be 100k, that doesn't mean I know when that will happen, I just know that it will happen but I have never given a result for it or a time for it at all. The best thing we can do right now would be just focusing on how to make it work better, it would be greater for me on the long run to just invest, and not think about the "when" part.

BITCOIN4X

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Quote from: Webetcoins on July 22, 2024, 11:09:22 AM

Quote from: Minor Miner on July 17, 2024, 05:30:23 AM

~Snip

The crypto market itself is unpredictable. The price of BTC can suddenly go up very high at any time and drop at any time.

Sometimes I don't completely agree with such assumptions, of course because in some cases the direction of price movements can be predicted. The most difficult thing is not predicting where the move will go, but at what price. Remember that price volatility is influenced by various things, one of which is news. Whale activity can of course also be a reference in predicting the market, but once again, the exact price is clearly very difficult to predict.

Increasing real use cases, friendly regulatory changes in various countries, increasing investor activity are some of the speculation grounds that we can benefit from. Moreover, we can still expect higher prices this year into next year considering the history of halvings. However, still consider your own risks before investing large amounts.

dunfida

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

We understand the roles most Bitcoin whales play in the Bitcoin price movement, and from all indications, every action that's taken by them either to buy or sell goes to have a sort of positive or negative ripples in what people speculate about Bitcoin's future price.

When they increase their buys, most speculators become bullish in terms of their Bitcoin price projection and when they sell or there appear rumors about the possibility of them selling, it goes on to redefine an average person's speculation of what Bitcoin price will be in a particular period and technically, it sometimes becomes visible and sinks Right with what Bitcoin price eventually becomes.

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Totally depends about on what kind of approach your do have towards Bitcoin on which whether you would really be going for long term or you would be going for short term? Lets talk about short term approach
on which you would really be definitely finding up the sweetest spot whether you would really be making up some buybacks or you would be selling out your position on which this one would really be situational
since not all would really be risk takers when dealing up with volatile space. We do know that there would really be those investors that would really be tending up on holding for long term rather than on dealing
it up on active manner on which we know that this one would really be requiring that specific skill set. Speaking about on what are the things been used then you would be needing up that TA+FA
on which this one would really be relevant and significant.

You would really be finding it useful on the moment that you would really be touching up this space. Of course you would really be needing to adjust accordingly on which are the things that
would suit out your risks appetite on which we do know that each person does have their own approach.

Webetcoins

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Quote from: Minor Miner on July 17, 2024, 05:30:23 AM

In my opinion, predictions like $100k or $350k mostly come from people's expectations instead of them relying on certain factors to make predictions, most predictions are based on people's emotions. I still remember the $100k target that appeared during the 2021 bull season, many people predicted and believed that bitcoin would hit the $100k mark before entering the bear season, but that didn't happen. And this time, that goal was reiterated once again.

Bitcoin is unpredictable and we should plan to hold for the long term, I mean hold bitcoin until we reach our goal instead of depending on and placing too much faith in our predictions.

The crypto market itself is unpredictable. The price of BTC can suddenly go up very high at any time and drop at any time. Only by prediction and guesswork is neither trading nor market moving. Your advice is good that we should hold BTC until we reach our goal but some people have not set any goal and are just sitting holding Bitcoin, and if we ask them, they say we're going to hold Bitcoin for another 8 to 10 years. One of the things I find more dangerous is that no one knows the future and the crypto market is not something that can be blindly believed.

Therefore, to avoid possible losses, it is the best option to set the profit of the money you are investing in your mind, or if it is mine, if my money goes to such a profit, then I will sell it.

When greed enters the heart of a trader, it becomes the reason for his failure, so you should be getting your desired profit, so don't think ahead, get your profit instead It is much better to wait a long time and see your profit go to loss, then turn to profit, then go to loss.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Anyone who comes or preaches how certain their speculations are is a deceiver directly or indirectly. No one is certain about the price of Bitcoin, where it will be today, tomorrow, next week, or even next year. Yes, a lot of people would have some fat to back up their speculations which may be convincing if you dive deep into understanding it. But what may happen will shock you.

This year's halving is enough to make us understand that we shouldn't expect things to be recalled all the time. What happened in the past may not repeat the same so many people speculated things to reoccur this year halving so much conviction but look how it all ended. People lost a lot of money, especially traders.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

We understand the roles most Bitcoin whales play in the Bitcoin price movement, and from all indications, every action that's taken by them either to buy or sell goes to have a sort of positive or negative ripples in what people speculate about Bitcoin's future price.

When they increase their buys, most speculators become bullish in terms of their Bitcoin price projection and when they sell or there appear rumors about the possibility of them selling, it goes on to redefine an average person's speculation of what Bitcoin price will be in a particular period and technically, it sometimes becomes visible and sinks Right with what Bitcoin price eventually becomes.

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Basis for Bitcoins price speculation? Of course majority will really be that relying or checking out with their charts and looking into those technical analysis that they had made out earlier on which it would really be just that a normal approach or thing to have. We do know that we could really be able to apply whether technical or fundamental analysis on which it wont really matter on which one you would be using as long you do
have that at least the idea on whats happening around on the market. This is why it would really be that important that you should really now on what you are doing and not really just that making positions randomly.
People would really be having their own approach on things on the time or moment that they do found themselves specially on a losing condition.

Some people do rely with others calls and trading tips because they dont have the plans on making their own or simply they are just that lazy. Its possible but you wont really be that making yourself that progressive
in terms of trading knowledge. If you are really just that contented into this then it would really be y our choice on how you would really be gonna dealing with this unpredictable space.

tabas

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It goes with the normal scene for Bitcoin's price by rotating with its supply and demand.

Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

The past cycles did give us a surprise when how they were able to reach unexpected highs. We can learn a lot of lessons from those histories like never time the market. I may not be certain but each of us has that goal of seeing it reach $100k soon. $350k is not out of question but it's quite high but again, as I've said that one of the lessons that we can learn from this market is never time it and expect the unexpected highs that it can go.

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Quote from: justdimin on July 18, 2024, 05:00:23 AM

Quote from: Minor Miner on July 17, 2024, 05:30:23 AM

In my opinion, predictions like $100k or $350k mostly come from people's expectations instead of them relying on certain factors to make predictions, most predictions are based on people's emotions. I still remember the $100k target that appeared during the 2021 bull season, many people predicted and believed that bitcoin would hit the $100k mark before entering the bear season, but that didn't happen. And this time, that goal was reiterated once again.

Bitcoin is unpredictable and we should plan to hold for the long term, I mean hold bitcoin until we reach our goal instead of depending on and placing too much faith in our predictions.

That is unfortunately true, a lot of people have no idea how these work and they are just making these up, I think it is quite important to realize that we are talking about mid term target like thing that is taking a little bit of time, and it is not going to be that high that quickly.

In the short term I do not see it be 100k anytime soon, not in the next 60 days for example, and yet in the next 60 days I can see it reach to 70k again, and even make a push for 75k as well. That means I can have a long term bullish hold, and that means I will be able to profit from both of that. I am not going to do futures, I do not trust myself that much, but I will keep holding the bitcoins that I can afford to buy.

Yes, most predictions come from people's thoughts and expectations rather than relying on indicators and technical analysis. But there is nothing wrong with those predictions because we all know bitcoin is unpredictable. Even top traders cannot predict accurately, so it is not difficult to understand why many people do not trust indicators or technical analysis. But I believe that besides some baseless predictions, many people will rely on factors such as history, and macroeconomic news...to make predictions and this is what I am using instead of trusting completely in technical analysis.

What I mean is, we should only sell bitcoin when we reach our initial goal no matter how long it takes, it will give us less pressure on our investment. Because in the short and medium term, bitcoin's volatility is unpredictable.

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Quote from: Minor Miner on July 17, 2024, 05:30:23 AM

In my opinion, predictions like $100k or $350k mostly come from people's expectations instead of them relying on certain factors to make predictions, most predictions are based on people's emotions. I still remember the $100k target that appeared during the 2021 bull season, many people predicted and believed that bitcoin would hit the $100k mark before entering the bear season, but that didn't happen. And this time, that goal was reiterated once again.

Bitcoin is unpredictable and we should plan to hold for the long term, I mean hold bitcoin until we reach our goal instead of depending on and placing too much faith in our predictions.

That is unfortunately true, a lot of people have no idea how these work and they are just making these up, I think it is quite important to realize that we are talking about mid term target like thing that is taking a little bit of time, and it is not going to be that high that quickly.

In the short term I do not see it be 100k anytime soon, not in the next 60 days for example, and yet in the next 60 days I can see it reach to 70k again, and even make a push for 75k as well. That means I can have a long term bullish hold, and that means I will be able to profit from both of that. I am not going to do futures, I do not trust myself that much, but I will keep holding the bitcoins that I can afford to buy.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

In my opinion, predictions like $100k or $350k mostly come from people's expectations instead of them relying on certain factors to make predictions, most predictions are based on people's emotions. I still remember the $100k target that appeared during the 2021 bull season, many people predicted and believed that bitcoin would hit the $100k mark before entering the bear season, but that didn't happen. And this time, that goal was reiterated once again.

Bitcoin is unpredictable and we should plan to hold for the long term, I mean hold bitcoin until we reach our goal instead of depending on and placing too much faith in our predictions.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

In my (and I assume many others’) opinion, the basis for the future growth of bitcoin is the fundamental reason associated with the 4-year cycles arising from the halving of bitcoin mining. A reduction in btc mining generates an increase in demand for this type of asset. Also, an increase in the number of holders, in particular, from large investment (and other) companies, as well as the governments of some states (El Salvador). There is very little bitcoin in free circulation (are becoming scarce) and, according to the laws of the financial market, it causes an increase in value.

It’s too early to talk about $350k, but the $100k mark will be reached within the next year (or a one and half year). This is caused by some delay in the start of the bullish trend after the halving.

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Quote from: Kelward on July 12, 2024, 10:58:31 AM

I think that different factors plays out to determine the price of Bitcoin at different times and I cannot deny that the impact of whales buying and selling is one of the major determinants. I don't bother much about looking for basis for Bitcoin speculations because they can only be for a short time, I know that whatever it is whether it's whales dumping, a country offloading their bags or some global news, it won't count for long term hodling. I buy, hodl and wait for as long as it takes because I have faith that events will happen that will always skyrocket price and there'll always be new ATH.

It is a fact that big whales have a lot of influence on the market but it's not just the whales that affect BTC's rise or fall, many other factors make Bitcoin go higher and lower. And that's great for people who are looking at Bitcoin's future, or who believe in Bitcoin so much that they can wait a long time for the market to go up or down. It doesn't matter because those people are buying and saving for a better future.

I have been holding Bitcoin for almost four years, and maybe hold on for a few more years but I think I'll sell it after a few years and hopefully get a good price. As well as holding long-term holdings in Bitcoin, I also buy and sell altcoins, I don't hold altcoins for a long period when I get a little profit from them I sell them I find that there is a lot of profit in short-term trading, so I do both.

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Quote from: Lucius on July 12, 2024, 05:50:59 AM

It depends on how someone looks at it, because it is true that we are at 19.7 million BTC in circulation, but to me 1.3 million BTC that still needs to be mined is a lot. Also, by 2032, 99% of all BTC will be mined, so we are still talking about a period of about 6 years, which is not exactly "almost".

There is no mystery here, the fact is that there will be no more new BTC (at least not anything significant) flowing into the system, but even today with around 450 new BTC per day, the impact of "fresh" BTC on the market is very small.

I do agree that we should consider the situation that we are not going to get any more, and that means we are not going to deal with anything harder. Sure, a lot of people think that we are going to see a surge, and I believe them as well, the scarcity of bitcoin makes it only possible outcome to this situation.

This doesn't mean that we can't make it work, of course we could still drops, and we are seeing them right now as well, but that doesn't mean that it's a must, we could make it work some other way as well. This is why I honestly believe that we need to keep on holding for long term, while I feel like it may not be great on the short term, I think we are going to see it do amazingly when it comes to long term.

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Quote from: redsun114 on July 12, 2024, 07:03:36 AM

Quote from: AprilioMP on July 12, 2024, 05:19:51 AM

in fact another incident occurred which resulted in the price being below $60,000 as current market conditions are still happening. transfer of assets by those with large amounts of Bitcoin from their wallets.

I think you are referring to those Germans who did a massive sell-out which occurred last time. I'm not only sure if we can consider this as an event because everyone can buy and sell their coins whenever they like.

You are very true that anyone can do anything over the Bitcoin including the German government towards Bitcoin. On one hand, what the German government did could not be considered an event because the decision to sell Bitcoin was fully their right to their bitcoin but on the other side when they saw market conditions, large -quantity sales could be an event according to the price point of view because it hampered market price movements Although it is normal regarding rising and falling prices.

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I think that different factors plays out to determine the price of Bitcoin at different times and I cannot deny that the impact of whales buying and selling is one of the major determinants. I don't bother much about looking for basis for Bitcoin speculations because they can only be for a short time, I know that whatever it is whether it's whales dumping, a country offloading their bags or some global news, it won't count for long term hodling. I buy, hodl and wait for as long as it takes because I have faith that events will happen that will always skyrocket price and there'll always be new ATH.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

I think that everyone speculates based on the market movement, behavior, and past and current events but guess what, none are able to hit a certain price. I would say that $100k is nearly possible but talking about $350k is just a dream, far from reality. I clearly don't make speculations or assumptions about the future which is impossible and I don't think it is worth seeing the price of bitcoin reach even $200k, poor people can't afford it anymore.

I would like to see bitcoin stay and exist longer but not in the situation that it is too expensive because that won't encourage anymore IMHO.
I would just hope that 10 years from now the price remains as low as possible like below $150k, that is still affordable by many.

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Quote from: AprilioMP on July 12, 2024, 05:19:51 AM

An event that is not far away is the approval of the ETF. When the ETF was approved, speculation on Bitcoin prices gave rise to a positive aura towards Bitcoin ownership and continued efforts to get more considering the Bitcoin Halving which allowed Bitcoin prices to optimistically rise according to speculation at that time, in fact another incident occurred which resulted in the price being below $60,000 as current market conditions are still happening. transfer of assets by those with large amounts of Bitcoin from their wallets.

At this point, I have a reason that the time to reach $100,000 has not yet happened and will happen. This means that I am still optimistic while enjoying and observing the conditions that occur while using it as an important lesson in understanding market conditions, especially the Bitcoin price market.

Even though there are other events that makes the people to feel the same, we can say that ETF was a bit different because it only happened one time. Maybe if there is a decision to remove it, we might see another approval again in the future, if they still change their mind. After ETF, we have another event called the BTC halving. The price did not rise after it and that resulted for a negative speculation.

Quote

in fact another incident occurred which resulted in the price being below $60,000 as current market conditions are still happening. transfer of assets by those with large amounts of Bitcoin from their wallets.

I think you are referring to those Germans who did a massive sell-out which occurred last time. I'm not only sure if we can consider this as an event because everyone can buy and sell their coins whenever they like.

Quote

At this point, I have a reason that the time to reach $100,000 has not yet happened and will happen

Huge dumping in price can actually be a start of a massive a pump because a lot of people are also buying during it.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 09:52:08 AM

We understand the roles most Bitcoin whales play in the Bitcoin price movement, and from all indications, every action that's taken by them either to buy or sell goes to have a sort of positive or negative ripples in what people speculate about Bitcoin's future price.

When they increase their buys, most speculators become bullish in terms of their Bitcoin price projection and when they sell or there appear rumors about the possibility of them selling, it goes on to redefine an average person's speculation of what Bitcoin price will be in a particular period and technically, it sometimes becomes visible and sinks Right with what Bitcoin price eventually becomes.

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

I don't know, we are already in 2024 and I don't think that whales has that big influence in the market. Although when we trade and we see that huge buy or sell orders, maybe there could be someone specially newbies that might have affected by what they see on the trading floor. But for those investors, might not be the case, although we look at what influence the current price for the timeframe and then we might the correct judgement. However, we are no speculators, we look to buy and then HODL, and I think that is one of the most effective strategy so no matter what basis others think it might not be to others specially those who have been in the market for so long already.

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Quote from: aylabadia05 on July 11, 2024, 03:58:10 PM

Because the Bitcoin circulation of the total number of Bitcoins of 21 million is very close or almost reached. If the supply circulation reaches 21 million, then Bitcoin will be scarce and the price will be high and the price predictions that have been made by many people, both famous figures and people like us, will be achieved. When? full of mystery.
~snip~

It depends on how someone looks at it, because it is true that we are at 19.7 million BTC in circulation, but to me 1.3 million BTC that still needs to be mined is a lot. Also, by 2032, 99% of all BTC will be mined, so we are still talking about a period of about 6 years, which is not exactly "almost".

There is no mystery here, the fact is that there will be no more new BTC (at least not anything significant) flowing into the system, but even today with around 450 new BTC per day, the impact of "fresh" BTC on the market is very small.

Topic: What's the basis for your Bitcoin speculation? (Read 322 times)