What's the basis for your Bitcoin speculation? - page 2.

AprilioMP

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

An event that is not far away is the approval of the ETF. When the ETF was approved, speculation on Bitcoin prices gave rise to a positive aura towards Bitcoin ownership and continued efforts to get more considering the Bitcoin Halving which allowed Bitcoin prices to optimistically rise according to speculation at that time, in fact another incident occurred which resulted in the price being below $60,000 as current market conditions are still happening. transfer of assets by those with large amounts of Bitcoin from their wallets.

At this point, I have a reason that the time to reach $100,000 has not yet happened and will happen. This means that I am still optimistic while enjoying and observing the conditions that occur while using it as an important lesson in understanding market conditions, especially the Bitcoin price market.

Kemarit

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Personally, I look for a long period and the bigger picture, so it means that I'm not affected by the movement in a given time frame as you can't do anything about it because of it's volatility. So it's better to look like in the next 12 months or so.

As far as going into $100,000, well, just look at Bitcoin's past history and you can see that the prediction for the next bull run is about that price minimum. Last all time high is around $69,000 so just multiple it with 2.x something and maybe you can arrived as what could be the next peak price in 2025.

shinratensei_

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

I will say that even if this is true, following whale is impossible without putting yourself at disadvantageous position, they are the one that make decision so they got the luxury to be the one that's in advantageous position by repositioning before anyone else.

but so far my basis in my speculation for bitcoin always the news, upcoming events and market sentiment as well as greed and fear index.
when I know that there are some entities trying to dump their bitcoin holding to the market by the billions, maybe it's time to get out for a little while to get better price at the bottom or if there's massive buying pressure such as ETF approval gonna happen, then it's a good signal to start buying. always these.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

I have learnt not to fix timeframe for Bitcoin because it is almost impossible to know the length of time it will take Bitcoin to get to a certain price. We can know the trend of Bitcoin at the initial stages of the movement but knowing how far it will go and when it will get to the price expected is what no one can correctly do. I do not see the need for this idea of trying to know when Bitcoin will get to a certain price because such pattern should be the business of short term traders that want to take advantage of such situation. As for long term investors like myself, we are mostly concerned with good entry point that will give us more Bitcoin.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

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Bitcoin adoption and for more general speculations I just look at the past charts. Ofc if I'm trying to speculate for a more specific timeframe I'd go for more current recent news like the ETF, Big holders buying/selling and stuff like that. I generally don't do that though lol I just DCA and call it a day after all, too stressful to always pay attention after all.

If it were a price point of $100k, At minimum I'd wait and see at the end of the year. I wouldn't see us getting close to it before that. That doesn't mean that I guarantee $100k by the end though, I just personally think the chances are there.

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

There's always the bias input about these whales and the same goes in real world about wealthy and successful people. Whatever they tell is a wisdom to us and it's up to us whether we'll pick up their words or not. But on this market, every speculation is a prediction nothing more, nothing less. That's why if you think that most of the whales speculation are only coming from the whales, we can also have ours. Wink

Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Well, the past charts. History might repeat itself and looking at the effects of every halving that has happened. IMHO, that's already enough for me to speculate that Bitcoin will reach those high prices that we haven't seen yet for now. $100k or $350k or higher, we'll be there soon and it's only a matter of time when. Just like in the past, we've been talking about how Bitcoin and when it will be back to its former all time high of $20k and now, we are past that and even nearly tripled at that range and now as its base price although BTC also has passed that and reached new ATH.

Richbased

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A lot of factors determines Bitcoin price movements and not only about the activities of the whales because if there is few demands for Bitcoin then the price isn't gonna appreciate much and there will also be few supply of Bitcoin but however, the whales also plays an important role in the price movements especially when they make withdrawals it affects the markets so much but I just believe that there are some kind of gamble that the whales gambles with the price of Bitcoin that's why at some point in the price they withdraw but that doesn't mean they don't make deposits again after they must have made some profits.

In my own way of making predictions and speculation about Bitcoin price movements is literally by going back to check at Bitcoin previous price history and the activities that caused the fluctuations in it's price and I also read news about what can possibly be the next move of Bitcoin and also I study the activities of the whales in the past and in the present and from all the information gathered I make my speculation and it does works most times.

aoluain

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I think I can speak for a fair few people and say that my basis for "speculating" on
Bitcoin is centered around a few factors:

The debasement of FIAT
Taking control of finances
Inflation
Growing Bitcoin adoption

If we are talking in terms of this current phase of the Bitcoin market the post halving
part of Bitcoins cycle is a big factor.

Personally I dont bother with what whales do and TBH I never considered that
what I do is "speculation"

ajiz138

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Because there are other factors about this speculation: Where we can see the history of previous cycles after the halving bitcoin will be bullish but not an instant time but wait longer even a year from the halving to bullish for bitcoin to $100K and more.

The basis why the price continues to decline due to whale manupulation may have a point but they know this is an attempt to excite the market into more panic after we hear massive sales occur this clearly affects the bitcoin market to go down, but behind it all there is news that continues to spread FUD, it could be that this is an act of the whales so that bitcoin goes down and they buy at the bottom.

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Quote from: Solosanz on July 11, 2024, 10:35:13 AM

Just five hours ago German Government sold 150K Bitcoin and Bitcoin price went up from $58K to $59K. Tongue

It's not about how much they buy or sell Bitcoin because they almost give no affect since Bitcoin market cap is already huge, except they invested $1 Trillion, it will double Bitcoin price.

The biggest reason why Bitcoin price can move based on whales activity is because the medias and content creators make panic.

This is exactly one of the reasons why I usually say bitcoin price fluctuations can never be impacted by only one whales, the reason why any of their movements usually causes the fluctuations of the market isd simply because the news has broken out and many other whales or investors have used the news as fundamentals to make their own decisions.

For example is the current sell of bitcoin by the Germans the news of it and other sales caused the FUD that prompted many to sale but immediately after the dump and other investors felt the bottom, their recent sells isn’t impacting it anymore because other sellers aren’t selling again. Whales also do not have any accurate data rather they prefer to spread news around to help them get more impact

aylabadia05

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

Because the Bitcoin circulation of the total number of Bitcoins of 21 million is very close or almost reached. If the supply circulation reaches 21 million, then Bitcoin will be scarce and the price will be high and the price predictions that have been made by many people, both famous figures and people like us, will be achieved. When? full of mystery.

Now we are and will still face various obstacles that make prices continue to decline, such as Mt.Gox and the German government which has been rumored by several media regarding their Bitcoin ownership. If that is finished, perhaps we will be faced with other conditions that cause prices to fall again amidst conditions that have increased.

Obim34

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Whales usually do have an impact in fluctuating the price of Bitcoin in the market, on whether they choose to buy or sell we can see some quick, non lasting shift in the market value. Some common instances can be used to speculate the price of Bitcoin like that of past occurrences as repetitive events (Halving) or as much people who believes in reading charts to speculate on the price of Bitcoin.

It is just a natural phenomenal in the world of Bitcoin that over the years we get to see new all time highs, so no matter how much DIP we catch there is every certainty that a lot higher prices within every cycle will be met.

Gozie51

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Usually one general way to speculate about the price of bitcoin is during the halving season after which the price will be expected to rise and that is what the times are at the moment as most investors look forward to a surge in price because of the rewards that will be splitted and increase in the value.

Another speculation is through news of whales dumping their hodling or buying more coins. This causes most times artificial bull or bear because of the news.

Also, their is manipulation which is also a form of speculation whether it is real or not. And where there is negative or bad news from government or whale causes market price to change within a short time.

YOSHIE

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Quote from: Marvelockg on July 11, 2024, 08:52:08 AM

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame?

Personally, I initially speculated that the increase in Bitcoin prices was influenced by two factors, [1] halving, which generally has occurred due to the increase in Bitcoin prices, on the basis of reduced supply, [2] Bitcoin ETF, convenience for investors, but now I no longer speculate on these two factors, but I have confidence that this year Bitcoin will experience ebbing waves for various reasons.

Maybe this time I should agree with Alexander's predictions and speculations, where he mentioned.

Quote

Alexander said that during the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin will trade in the range of US$40,000 to US$45,000, until the halving occurs again in the specified year.

Meaning: if that happens, there is little hope that Bitcoin will reach the $100k or $300k level this year, but that is just speculation, what actually happened, only God knows, we can speculate, considering the global economy and the current war that has not stopped in several top countries, which have the highest economies, Alex's speculation seems to be in a cage.

The point is, whatever speculation there is at the moment, it remains to be said that each person believes in the price of Bitcoin now or in the future, that is the real challenge for crypto users in particular, to think.

Solosanz

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Just five hours ago German Government sold 150K Bitcoin and Bitcoin price went up from $58K to $59K. Tongue

It's not about how much they buy or sell Bitcoin because they almost give no affect since Bitcoin market cap is already huge, except they invested $1 Trillion, it will double Bitcoin price.

The biggest reason why Bitcoin price can move based on whales activity is because the medias and content creators make panic.

Marvelockg

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We understand the roles most Bitcoin whales play in the Bitcoin price movement, and from all indications, every action that's taken by them either to buy or sell goes to have a sort of positive or negative ripples in what people speculate about Bitcoin's future price.

When they increase their buys, most speculators become bullish in terms of their Bitcoin price projection and when they sell or there appear rumors about the possibility of them selling, it goes on to redefine an average person's speculation of what Bitcoin price will be in a particular period and technically, it sometimes becomes visible and sinks Right with what Bitcoin price eventually becomes.

This gives me the impression that the most accurate speculation is most likely the one that will come from Bitcoin whales since they are the major holders and might know more about Bitcoin price speculations than an average holder out there.

What's your basis for speculating that Bitcoin will get to a certain price in a given time frame? Let's share our thoughts on this so that while talking about Bitcoin getting to $100k or $350k in a particular timeframe we can do it with some sort of fact.

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