That was my original claim several months ago in the official thread. But I thought it will be open to all BTC holders until the supply was fulfilled. I didn't realize they were going to do this more unfavorable later rounds. I should have realized that would be the gimick the insiders would use to get 10X more supply than everyone thought they would get.
But because the issuance is to exclusive to those who participated in the very favorable first round, I think maybe they think they should hold on. So far they only have a 10% gain on their BTC. They probably feel Byteball is going to be the next great THING in crypto.
But they better do the pump soon. Because other coins are coming, and Byteball's features won't seem so unique later in the year.
The distribution was created as such with Metcalfe's Law in mind. There have been several distributions price has been fairly stable.
Kola-schaar posted some interesting insight into this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.17967162
There are only 12% of the Bytes in circulation and people keep them tight because of the compound interest.
If the growth (linked to BTC + interest rate) remains constant (every round +50k linked BTC), we still need 19 rounds.
If you invest 10 GBytes (~0.45 BTC) you have after 19 rounds 10GB*(1+10/100)^19 = 61.15 GBytes.
Maybe we need 10 rounds more: 10*(1+10/100)^29 = 159 GBytes.
The compound interest works very strong - very strong argument to hold.
If you invest 0.45 BTC for the next (maybe 19) rounds, and the price remains constant (at 0.045 BTC/GB total capitalization ~54 Mio.).
You will have a profit: 0.45 BTC*61.1 Gbytes/ 10 Gbytes => (2.75 BTC–0.45 BTC)/0.45 BTC => 512%. With each additional round (see exponent) it becomes more.
The crucial question, however, is how far can the price drop until I lose?
We bought at a price of 0.045 BTC/GByte (10 Gbyte).
Therefore, we can endure 0.45 BTC /61.1 GBytes = 0.0074 BTC/GByte.
(If we sell our 61.1 GB then 0.0074 BTC/GByte * 61.1 Gbyte = 0.45 BTC we get our bet back.)
Question: 0.0074 BTC/GByte which capitalization is this?
It’s 0.0074 BTC/GByte * 1E15/1E9 => 0.0074 BTC/GByte * 1E6 GByte = 7400 BTC or ~7400BTC *1200$/BTC = 8.8 Mio $
You can still match the Dev! (tony holds 1%):
price ~76 BTC ~1.7 TByte*1,1^19=10 TByte -> 1% of total capitalisation
or with lower budget:
1/10 price 7.6 BTC ~0.17 TByte (170 GByte) -> 0.1% of total capitalisation
1/100 price 0.76 BTC 0.017 TByte (17 GByte) -> 0.01% of total capitalisation
1/1000 price 0.076 BTC 0.0017 TByte (1.7 GByte) -> 0.001% of total capitalisation
For those who have participated in the 1st and / or 2nd round and / or which additionally connect BTCs (got Bytes for free), the above calculations looks even better.
Classic BTC holders: They link her BTC and sleep (like Kostolany:”.. buy
shares and take some sleepingpills: when you wake up, you've made money" will have) - lazy people (sometimes to lazy to link Smiley).
Nowhere is there such an interest (without any risk) for the BTCs.
And they will receive a free diversification (and a technology upgrade) of their portfolio: A very good idea, because that is already a trend:
Good to have at least two horses in the barn (A hopeful foal and an old horse).
There is much to win, but little to lose, so people do not sell…
For the vast majority of holders, there is simply no reason to sell (1st round participants are believers, ICO's already hold because of diversification, BTC whales ditto -They ride the old horse and lead the foal next to it).
A sale makes sense only if one likes monocultures (only BTC). Or you would like to get your investment (bought bytes) back in order to minimize the risks..
10GB*(1+10/100)^10 = 25.9-10=15.9 -> 15.9*1,1^9=37.6 Gbytes Undecided
… Then there are also our black friends (BB) ..
perfect for small investors with a small money bag… You can exchange half of your earning in blackbytes..
It is the philosophy of this distribution to allow as many adopters as possible a (as far as possible risk-free) access (to Bytes / Blackbytes).
disclaimer
The author does not force you to invest now or to by BTCs now. There may also be more favorable times.. No idea!