What's your gambling system? - page 2.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 20, 2019, 03:01:08 PM

<...>

that's a really interesting post.
would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

but trust me:
if you find a way that the casino don't have an edge they'll figure it out at some point and change the system.

even if you win, the true winner is always the house.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Haunebu on February 06, 2020, 07:25:56 AM

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

Ok I get it. Very interesting martingale variation but from potability point of view its the same as regular one but i'm not 100% sure. It will be my pleasure to test it. I'll do it in free time.

edit: just deleted 2 off-topic posts. Guys this is not "spam whatever thread". Do not post things like "i like to gamble" or "i like provably fair system". I'll delete them to keep this thread clean.

Haunebu

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 06, 2020, 05:42:51 AM

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Haunebu on February 06, 2020, 04:44:16 AM

Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)

I'll code it for you but i need you to clarify me one thing.

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

Haunebu

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Just found this particular variation of Martingale through Youtube(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPO_fWa_27g&t=1086s) and would like to see whether it is more effective.

Strategy:

1. We aim to gain 1 unit and restart. Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)
2. If we lose, we follow this pattern : 2 2 2(If win, go back to level 1).
3. If we lose, we follow the pattern : 4 4 4(If win, go back to level 2).
etc etc.

Basically, this martingale strategy helps you wager more over a longer period of time, but depends on 2 or more consecutive win streaks.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Ok. I've found some time and I've decided to come back to this thread. OP updated - we have 7 martingale simulations. I'm open for more. Do you have any gambling system that you want to test long-term? Bring it here. It does not need to be martingale variation. I'll do my best to code any simulation.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: mu_enrico on October 04, 2019, 05:06:51 AM

Thanks for the compliment, however
Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return.

I didn't mean to be rude:) Most of the systems presented here was much worse than martingale.
I still have code for your system. I can compare it with martingale in various simulations (like 10% target, portfolio = 100x intial bet etc.)
Just let me know what parameter would you like to see.

Code:

porfolio =
target =
number of test=

I think that fibbonaci martingale will alwais loose with regular martingale.

Quote from: mu_enrico on October 04, 2019, 05:06:51 AM

This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance).

Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted.

Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.

By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk! Grin

This program works like that:

1- start with initial portfolio and play with system:
a - portfolio doubled -> win = win +1
b- portfolio zeroed -> break;
simulation for 1 gambler has ended
repeat for 10 000- 100 000 gamblers

So when you see 10 000 gamblers and none of them was able to double it means that they all zero their portfolio because there is no other way to stop the loop in program (zero or double).

Regular martingale system is like - you profit until you hit killing strike. Gambler who win is the one who was lucky enough to not hit killing strike before doubling portfolio
Fibonacci martingale is like - you are constantly decreasing your portfolio because you are loosing more than you are winning. Gambler who beat casino is the one who had (f.e) 9000 wins out of 10000 from first 10000 bets. - was lucky enough to be the farthest from statistic distribution.
So it's not quite that you are loosing less with Fibonacci. It's like your porfoplio is going down and down untill you are doomed after xxx bets.

mu_enrico

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on October 04, 2019, 04:15:42 AM

Some was able to present system that guarantee loss:

Thanks for the compliment, however
Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 23, 2019, 06:35:42 AM

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance).

Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted.

Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.

By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk! Grin

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: cabalism13 on October 03, 2019, 11:07:22 PM

Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine.

Any Ideas?

You can apply them all but why? I've prooved that all of those systems has lower odds of winning than placing all your money in single bet. Playing automatically not only kills fun from gambling but also pushes your outcome from gambling closer to statistic distribution what guarantee loss. For now no one was able to present system that works. Some was able to present system that guarantee loss:

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 23, 2019, 06:35:42 AM

Quote from: mu_enrico on August 22, 2019, 07:17:32 AM

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;

Well i don't have impressive results.

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

Quote from: cabalism13 on October 03, 2019, 11:07:22 PM

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on September 13, 2019, 06:28:18 AM

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk.

This little guy do not need babysitting

He only sleeps and eats.

cabalism13

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Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine.

Any Ideas?

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on September 13, 2019, 06:28:18 AM

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: Muttley on September 18, 2019, 08:09:32 AM

Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount.

1 - I select any coin from my bank
2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance)
3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times
4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss
5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit
6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1

With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less.

This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake:

https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/

Damn
I didn't notice your post. I'll code it for you in the next few days but as i see it is based on martingale and will profit as long as you would not hit killing strike doing martingale what was shown to be unprofitable in this tread already. Am i wrong?

Quote

do a martingale until you get profit

What if there won't be profit?

Muttley

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Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount.

1 - I select any coin from my bank
2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance)
3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times
4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss
5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit
6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1

With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less.

This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake:

https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: bones261 on September 14, 2019, 11:16:11 AM

Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.

Thank you. Is there anything else i can code for you? For now the best strategy other than single bet was martingale with tripling instead of doubling (much more agressive martingale).

Quote from: Bardman on September 03, 2019, 01:39:28 PM

Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others

Yes, but brute force simulation is easier to do and easier to explain to others.

Quote from: Bardman on September 03, 2019, 01:39:28 PM

I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.

Some people believe in flat earth

Rule is simple. The bigger your trading volume is the more money is sucked by hose edge and the closer you get to statistic distribution. Find your strategy and bring here.

bones261

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on September 13, 2019, 06:28:18 AM

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: bones261 on September 05, 2019, 08:34:53 PM

Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Here are my results.
Strategy2:

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 4 gamblers out of 100000

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 37048 gamblers out of 100000

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

With regular martingale you are constantly increasing portfolio until sudden death. In your strategy you are bleeding slowly with every bet until there is nothing to bet with. With big portfolios this strategy is very similar to flat betting which is 100% loss strategy. Strategy 1 is even closer to flat betting that's why i've decided to go in another direction. Increasing bet up to 32x.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 23416 gamblers out of 100000

Much better than 4

That proofs that the more aggressive you are the bigger are your odds of winning. Up to the most aggressive strategy (bet all your money on red and double or go home broken)

bones261

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on September 03, 2019, 12:37:15 PM

I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly:
strategy 1

Code:

1 
win
2
win
2
win
2
win
2
loss
1
loss 
1

strategy 2

Code:

1
win
2
win
4
win
4
win
4
loss
1
loss 
1

Thats what you mean?

Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.

Bardman

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Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others and can in fact even get a bit more house edge percentage in your favor, talking about a pretty small percentage. I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: bones261 on August 31, 2019, 02:03:32 PM

I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.

I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly:
strategy 1

Code:

1 
win
2
win
2
win
2
win
2
loss
1
loss 
1

strategy 2

Code:

1
win
2
win
4
win
4
win
4
loss
1
loss 
1

Thats what you mean?

bones261

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I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.

Tytanowy Janusz

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cryptovigi found better strategy than regular martingale. It's in link in OP:

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 20, 2019, 03:01:08 PM

Its simple martingale with tripling instead of doubling after every loss.

||

1

||

Martingale v2

||

xxx

||

xxx

||

triple bet after loss

||

I've tested in on different data than so I've found old program and run it on new data. Here are results:

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 43380 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 280 hours in casino

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 43565 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino

So to find "best strategy" you have be beat those numbers

I'll code your strategy in free time.

Topic: What's your gambling system? - page 2. (Read 1506 times)