What's your gambling system? - page 3.

mu_enrico

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 30, 2019, 01:21:11 AM

This is one strategy or 2?

Two strategies as explained by @numanoid

Quote from: numanoid on August 30, 2019, 10:49:05 AM

IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Well, this is experiment right? Who knows it will give better results than

Edit: removed wrong comment

Anything better than the ~~above~~ below results will be the "best strategy" lol

PS: make sure you count the correct lose streak

libert19

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Quote from: carlfebz2 on August 30, 2019, 02:56:37 PM

Quote from: numanoid on August 30, 2019, 10:49:05 AM

Quote from: Malsetid on August 30, 2019, 03:32:25 AM

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days.
Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up
We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.

Right, thinking like, "I have had 6 losses in a raw so I must be winning the next one" is wrong thinking, every dice roll comes with the same odds, you can't predict what next roll will bring.

carlfebz2

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Quote from: numanoid on August 30, 2019, 10:49:05 AM

Quote from: Malsetid on August 30, 2019, 03:32:25 AM

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days.
Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up
We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.

numanoid

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Quote from: Malsetid on August 30, 2019, 03:32:25 AM

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Malsetid

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 30, 2019, 01:21:11 AM

Quote from: mu_enrico on August 30, 2019, 12:29:31 AM

- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

This is one strategy or 2?

I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly?

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol. It works for some people but almost not for everyone in the long run. This system worked for me for a short while though when you get drawn deeper into betting, losing everything will be really quick.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: mu_enrico on August 30, 2019, 12:29:31 AM

- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

This is one strategy or 2?

I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly?

mu_enrico

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Bro, could you do the followings:
- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

I think these would be the best strategy.

Tytanowy Janusz

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@libert19
There is no need of quoting my whole post. Just add @Tytanowy Janusz or quote a sentence you are referring too so the whole topic won't look like rubbish. You have 24 h to correct your post otherwise i'll delete it to keep whole topic clean for people willing to read it.

Quote from: libert19 on August 28, 2019, 09:43:50 PM

Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

In roulette there is ~970 $ return out of every 1000$ bet on average (with statistic distribution) https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.49808336. No matter how will you place it. If you will place it in one bet than your average return will be 970$ (3%*1000$ * 1 bet = 30$ for casino). If you will place 100$ 100 times (win, loss, win, loss, loss, win etc) than your average return will be 700$ (3% * 100$ *100 bets = 300$ for casino). The best strategy than is to limits your betting volume to minimum (by placing all your money in single bet). That's makes your outcome maximum far from statistic distribution what gives you the biggest chance to win.

libert19

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Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: libert19 on August 28, 2019, 05:50:46 AM

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Again. Better outcome but still worse than regular martingale or betting all your money in single bet:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 27633 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 21 hours in casino (1 bet per minute,)

Only 27,6% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. 21h spent in casino for average winner. 500 $ / 21h = 23,8$/h with 72.4 % probability of fail and loosing 1000$.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8260 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 82,6% gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio (slightly better than last time -72,9 % ):

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8049 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 25 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

80,5% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio (that's much better than last time - 7.4%). This strategy seems to be much more portfolio size resistant - that's because its much more aggressive.

libert19

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Thanks! I have discovered another 'strategy' where I had bit of luck last few days . I would love to have your results on it.

It works pretty much similar, just that after making winning bet twice in a row you don't reset to base bet rather come to it by decreasing by half until you reach base bet.

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Base bet: 0.1 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.2 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.4 eos

On win repeat the winning bet

next bet: 0. 4 eos

(now, don't go to base bet after win, go to it by decreasing it by half)

So your next bet: 0.2 eos

If you win

Next bet: 0.1 eos

Else

Next bet: 0.4 eos

Repeat..

It pains me to write, easier done than said 😂

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: libert19 on August 23, 2019, 07:58:07 AM

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

Just coded it - I was quite busy last days. Outcome is much better but still worse than betting all your money in single bet. Here are results:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 6049 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 172 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 6,0% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. Much better than 0 last time. I've added time that average winner spent in casino. 172 h for 500 $ = 2,9$/h is not what you want to get from gambling. Especially with 94% probability of fail.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 7294 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 15 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 72,9 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. It should be close to 90%. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 738 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 766 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

7,4% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio. Much better than 0 last time but still not close to oryginal martingale or single bet strategy. Again - bigger portfolio makes it worse. 766 hours in casino to earn 1000$. 1,3$/h with 92% probability of fail and loosing 10000$ (every gambler who do not beat casino zero his porfolio).

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8092 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

81% gamblers was able to win 10%. It should be 90%. Looks like the less money you bring to the casino the bigger are your odds to win certain % of your portfolio.

eternalgloom

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 20, 2019, 02:01:08 PM

I've coded simulation for martingale that shows that it has lower odds of winning than putting all your money in 1 bet and going home with profit or 0.

Sorry that I'm cherry picking this statement out of your entire topic, but that's actually something I'm going to use when someone asks me whether Martingale is a good idea.
It's indeed much better in a wide variety of scenarios (not just with Martingale), to just place one bet that gives the payout you want, instead of doing multiple bets.

I reckon it would also be a good tool to prevent yourself getting addicted, but only if you sick to the one bet.

libert19

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 23, 2019, 07:17:39 AM

Quote from: libert19 on August 23, 2019, 05:57:46 AM

Quote

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: libert19 on August 23, 2019, 05:57:46 AM

Quote

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

My simulation is simple martingale but not with 50% winrate but 75% win rate. The payout is accordingly lower:

libert19

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Quote

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: mu_enrico on August 22, 2019, 06:17:32 AM

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;

Well i don't have impressive results.

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

How about lower limits?

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 3460 gamblers out of 100000

Only 3,46% gamblers was able to double. With original martingale 39% gamblers beat casino.

That's because Fibonacci function grow too slow. Means that after 10 lost bets next bet will be 89. Total loss will be 232 what gives net loss. That way you are constantly going down with your wallet.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: libert19 on August 20, 2019, 11:09:58 PM

2) Roll with 75% win chances. Double on lose, make the winning bet twice and reset to base bet.

As i already had working code for roulette i've decided to modify it. To reach 75% win chance i've set my simulation to the situation in which you spread your bet on 27 numbers giving 27/37=73% win rate with 36/27 payout.

Outcome is horrible. Much worse than with martingale:

I've started with portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 100000

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 278 gamblers out of 10000

Only 2.78 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

None of gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. Looks like bigger portfolio is making it even worse

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 4735 gamblers out of 10000

47% gamblers was able to win 10%. It sould be 90%.

Quote from: mu_enrico on August 22, 2019, 06:17:32 AM

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

Thanks. This may bring interesting results. I'll do it in free time.

mu_enrico

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Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 22, 2019, 01:50:38 AM

Quote from: Haunebu on August 21, 2019, 02:29:01 AM

Preferred systems:
~...
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )
Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then.
(....)

Can you specify what's it about?

This system is quite a low risk and there's something like Martingale style.
1 bet unit is for 1 bet won, once you already 1 unit you bet, you will reset.
Example:
1 unit bet = Won, so you will reset.
1 unit bet => 1 unit bet lost => 1 unit bet lost => So , you already 3 units lost bet, continue to bet 1 unit until you get a win.
after 3 units bet lost, your next bet is still 1 unit => win => so, your lost is already 2 units. Here, you can add 1 unit to your initial bet, so.
2 units bet => lost (so, you already 4 units lost), continue => 2 units bet => Won, so you are still 2 units bet lost => increase your bet again to 1 unit, so.
3 units bet now=> and you won. 2units - 3 units = 1 unit WON. and reset now since you won 1 unit.

Watch more here about this system. This is something a good strategy for roulette games or maybe on dice games.

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