Topic: What's your shutdown point? - page 4. (Read 11441 times)
Actually I find that during such times as a lot of miners stopped, there is a good range of second hand graphic cards and other equipment at cheap prices which may help the existing miners cut their cost per hash. It can be a good time for some, it can be a bad time for others.
That's correct, but most miners don't sell their coins every minute in real time, so it's really hard to determine the absolute profitable cutting point.
difficulty adjustments don't happen that fast, but if a miner isn't selling their coins in a timely manner after mining them, they're speculating.
That's correct, but most miners don't sell their coins every minute in real time, so it's really hard to determine the absolute profitable cutting point.
It's a hard question to answer, because the difficulty certainly will follow the price,
Say at 2 mil difficulty, my shutdown point would be at $5,
but when we actually reach $5, the difficulty went down to 1 mil,
so the new shutdown point is at $2.5, since you're getting double the amount of coins.
Say at 2 mil difficulty, my shutdown point would be at $5,
but when we actually reach $5, the difficulty went down to 1 mil,
so the new shutdown point is at $2.5, since you're getting double the amount of coins.
right, but that only makes sense AFTER difficulty adjusts. so if you're losing money right now, you shouldn't be mining until difficulty adjusts lower where you'll be profitable again.
It's a hard question to answer, because the difficulty certainly will follow the price,
Say at 2 mil difficulty, my shutdown point would be at $5,
but when we actually reach $5, the difficulty went down to 1 mil,
so the new shutdown point is at $2.5, since you're getting double the amount of coins.
Say at 2 mil difficulty, my shutdown point would be at $5,
but when we actually reach $5, the difficulty went down to 1 mil,
so the new shutdown point is at $2.5, since you're getting double the amount of coins.
jup lol i see btc drop like a rocket
Gut check folks! Welcome to sub-$3! 
$1.80. That is the electrical cost for my hardware efficiency, current difficulty, and my electrical rate. Obviously that number would adjust based on difficulty.
Another way to look at it is my cutoff point is (diff/USD BTC price): 854,626.1111 or roughly 850,000. If difficulty / price is >= 850,000 I quit.
Another way to look at it is my cutoff point is (diff/USD BTC price): 854,626.1111 or roughly 850,000. If difficulty / price is >= 850,000 I quit.
$1.80? Holy smokes! You must have super, super, super cheap power or something. My two mining rigs together pull about ~850w and at $0.091/khw + current difficulty, I'm only at $20/mo profit.
If price were to drop to $1.80, I'd be out $25/mo!
The price of a bitcoin is so low that now it's only for fun.
But that's the point I don't get. What's the fun? If you could just buy the bitcoins for less than it's costing you to mine them.
Keep in mind that trends often benefit bears in lean times, IE people who buy low often lose out in the short run and payoff in the long. I"m investing heavily now and I'll see great returns I believe. If you are speculating, you're not an investor, you're a pig... Pigs get slaughtered.
I hate to say it, but I didn't think bitcoin would fall this far given that there hasn't been a major theft recently. It looks like folks are just giving up. It's a shame because history shows us what happens when reason and progress fails. Bitcoin was a grand experiment in an egalitarian economy. Bitcoin, you either love it or hate it and while it's outlasted most marriages, every good thing will die. I wonder if anyone is developing a coin that works as a virus destroying computers? Now that is something our military-industrial complex would invest a great deal in resources to develop.
My shutdown point is $0, since I use my computer to heat my house. 
At $3.50/BTC, my earning rate would be $0.91/day after power at 1.2Ghash. So needless to say, my miners will stay off for the time being 
I think the thing that's going to come to light is that without speculators driving the price, in a healthy system, the ratio of difficulty/price will keep mining a zero profit game. If anything, the market is just adjusting back to levels it can support without people pumping money into it looking to make a quick buck.
I think the thing that's going to come to light is that without speculators driving the price, in a healthy system, the ratio of difficulty/price will keep mining a zero profit game. If anything, the market is just adjusting back to levels it can support without people pumping money into it looking to make a quick buck.
I couldn't imagine anyone would still be into this for the profit side of things, You would make more money in a single day washing car windows at the local traffic lights than you would mining for a whole month.
So with that in mind the question about a cut off point is stupid, People will believe in there minds what the want to believe even if they have convinced them self they are making money. But I would say atleast 90% of miners are in it for the community and fun(if you can call it that).
So with that in mind the question about a cut off point is stupid, People will believe in there minds what the want to believe even if they have convinced them self they are making money. But I would say atleast 90% of miners are in it for the community and fun(if you can call it that).
How many hours of work does it take to run your miners each month? I have 4 rigs running off usb drives which I haven't touched in weeks (except the whole DDOS fun and even that was maybe 1 hour of "work"). Now there is my 5th rig which is also my workstation that I tweak, modify, and change as a hobby of sorts but that is more a choice than a necessity.
Mining is more comparable to an investment than a job. If I wash cars for 8 hours I get paid for 8 hours. If it takes 8 hours per month to run and maintain the rigs I can get paid for 1000+ hours.
I won't be running my rigs for charity. Maybe some miners will but not all of them will. This is evident in the falling hashrate of the network. So my break even point is very real $1.59 per BTC (modified by seasonal effect of heat). When we hit that I will shut off my rigs. If we go above it I will turn them back on.
I couldn't imagine anyone would still be into this for the profit side of things, You would make more money in a single day washing car windows at the local traffic lights than you would mining for a whole month.
So with that in mind the question about a cut off point is stupid, People will believe in there minds what the want to believe even if they have convinced them self they are making money. But I would say atleast 90% of miners are in it for the community and fun(if you can call it that).
So with that in mind the question about a cut off point is stupid, People will believe in there minds what the want to believe even if they have convinced them self they are making money. But I would say atleast 90% of miners are in it for the community and fun(if you can call it that).
Current difficulty 7,255,634,282,020,860 hashes per block.
2MH/watt * 60 * 60 * 1000 = 7200000 MH / kWh
7,255,634,282,020,860 / ( 7200000 * 1000 * 1000 ) = 1007 kWh per block. 9 cents per kWh = $90.63 per block. $90.63 / 50 = ~$1.80 per coin.
2MH/watt * 60 * 60 * 1000 = 7200000 MH / kWh
7,255,634,282,020,860 / ( 7200000 * 1000 * 1000 ) = 1007 kWh per block. 9 cents per kWh = $90.63 per block. $90.63 / 50 = ~$1.80 per coin.
So if I'm pulling ~1550 from the wall for rigs and cooling and getting ~3120 Mh/s, I'm at ~2MH/watt right? Why does your difficulty number have more commas than the national debt? At $0.149/kWh what price am I better off buying coins?
It isn't difficulty. It is what difficulty represents. Number of Hashes to make a block.
Difficulty * 2^32 = number of hashes per block.
Another way of looking at your numbers:
7,255,634,282,020,860 / (3120 * 1000 * 1000 * 60 * 60 ) = 646 hours.
It will take you 646 hours to find a block.
646 hours * 1.550kW = 1,001 kWh per block. (neto just about 1 MWh)
Every block you find consumes 1,001 kWh of electricity.
10,01 kWh * $0.149/kWh = $149.
When you mine you are essentially buying a block for $149. It doesn't matter if you buy it from the market or buy it from mining either way you are buying it.
$149/50 = $2.98.
If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
In the winter you likely can reduce that by 1/3. The energy consumed heats the house. It likely isn't as cheap/efficient as using natural gas so we shouldn't consider it "free heat" but maybe "subsidized heat". In the winter (if your rigs are in heated part of your house) maybe use $2.00 as the breakpoint. In the summer if you need to AC to cool your house that adds about 30% additional electrical cost making your break even more like $4.00
So getting super complex. The most efficient method to acquire coins.
In summer. Price above $4 MINE. Below $4 BUY.
In fall/spring. Price above $3 MINE. Below $3 BUY. *if not needing to use AC or heat
In Winter. Price above $2 MINE. Below $2 BUY.
Of course when difficulty changes you will need to adjust but only the first number in the equation changes. Number of hashes per block is simply difficulty * 2^32.
Nice Work! Thanks.
For me, I also like to add the capital investment into the calculation.
All the hardware should be paid off in 18 months in my opinion:
That's the average time before hardware doubles in power and/or the price is cut in half.
FPGAs will become commonplace and ASICs may be come common after that.
If you already had all the capital on hand before you joined the bitcoin venture, then it makes since not to think about it; however, in the future, in order to compete in mining capital investments will have to made by all specifically for mining.
1001 kWh * $0.149/kWh = $149.
When you mine you are essentially buying a block for $149. It doesn't matter if you buy it from the market or buy it from mining either way you are buying it.
$149/50 = $2.98.
If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
When you mine you are essentially buying a block for $149. It doesn't matter if you buy it from the market or buy it from mining either way you are buying it.
$149/50 = $2.98.
If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
+1 to this really great calculation and clear explanation. I especially like how you give an extra 33% margin depending on heating/cooling. Well done, sir.
I, personally, like to keep my calculations "honest" -- after all, I wouldn't want to pretend my costs were lower than they were, and just "believe" I was making money.
Wouldn't that be stupid -- be making money in my own mind, but losing money in my actual bank account?
Wouldn't that be stupid -- be making money in my own mind, but losing money in my actual bank account?
I think I mentally came up with 3.50. price per k/wh is only the base price, the elec company seams to have a plethora of other charges that get added in.
Yeah mine isn't really $.149, but that's what it averages with fees - granted some of those fees are fixed and would be paid with or without mining.
If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
Thanks, that makes sense. I was at the same number, just got it a different way and was unsure it was accurate.
I think I mentally came up with 3.50. price per k/wh is only the base price, the elec company seams to have a plethora of other charges that get added in.
If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy.
Thanks, that makes sense. I was at the same number, just got it a different way and was unsure it was accurate.
Oops. Yeah that would be the non-optimal strategy to maximize cost.
Fixing post.
Fixing post.
Jump to: