My estimation: 4-6 monthes or so.
it might even drop,but who knows.
Topic: When Will Bitcoin Reach $1000?? - page 18. (Read 19685 times)
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever 
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
That's correct. The exponential growth right now is a result of the diffusion of bitcoin e.g. "how many people knowing about it" being roughly proportional to demand.
The diffusion curve looks like this below - this sort of represents how many people know of bitcoin in the world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
http://i.imgur.com/lffdyqI.png
Since the log of the price is still quite linear over large times, it seems like we are still in the beginning of this diffusion. I went into great detail on the matter on my blog, but the price of course also depends on the effective supply. The degree to which bitcoin is being hoarded has drastic impact on the price at a given time. The demand seems to obey this curve well and since the supply function, disregarding hoarding, is well known, we observe the log linearity. Log linearity does imply exponential growth - overall, of course. Keep an eye on the log linear model.
Like clockwork, bitcoin has gained 10x or 1000% in any 1 year window. 1000%/yr is an outrageous gain, but it happened 4 times and I cannot see much evidence that is changing soon. However of course we must all recognize there will come a time with diffusion of bitcoin will slow. At that point, I do not know what the price will do.
Everyone read this^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
Are you crazy? Exponential growth cannot last forever.
It can last as long as Bitcoin informative measures are booming. More people are coming to Bitcoin and will for a while.
Yes in the end, but I guess im not as certain as most people it wont take a nice dive first. Anything can happen we just have to sit back and watch.
I think people are just noticing that people are coing to the coin, which means there are entirely new economies and organizational structures being attached to Bitcoin, so the price will go up. But they don't see that it still does work kinda like a real market in that it is based on supply and demand.
Soon, I am guessing end of this year...
I'm placing bets on 2014.
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
That's correct. The exponential growth right now is a result of the diffusion of bitcoin e.g. "how many people knowing about it" being roughly proportional to demand.
The diffusion curve looks like this below - this sort of represents how many people know of bitcoin in the world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Since the log of the price is still quite linear over large times, it seems like we are still in the beginning of this diffusion. I went into great detail on the matter on my blog, but the price of course also depends on the effective supply. The degree to which bitcoin is being hoarded has drastic impact on the price at a given time. The demand seems to obey this curve well and since the supply function, disregarding hoarding, is well known, we observe the log linearity. Log linearity does imply exponential growth - overall, of course. Keep an eye on the log linear model.
Like clockwork, bitcoin has gained 10x or 1000% in any 1 year window. 1000%/yr is an outrageous gain, but it happened 4 times and I cannot see much evidence that is changing soon. However of course we must all recognize there will come a time with diffusion of bitcoin will slow. At that point, I do not know what the price will do.
I think 2014 is a safe estimate.
I think that bitcoin will hit 1000$ during Q3 of 2014.It grows rapidly
have you seen the bitstamp order book ? it's going to crash any moment.
Its about time. I would like to rebuy back at about 200
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
It only last until it bubble....
have you seen the bitstamp order book ? it's going to crash any moment.
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
Are you crazy? Exponential growth cannot last forever.
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
The graphs are awesome.Yes, yes it can last forever.
I fit the logarithm of bitcoin's price to a line in excel which produced the prediction August 25, 2014
The fit derives from this linear fit of the log of the price
The excel sheet is here
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B2HU2oGcAN_SbDRHZmFsWldSX0E&usp=sharing
The fit derives from this linear fit of the log of the price
The excel sheet is here
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B2HU2oGcAN_SbDRHZmFsWldSX0E&usp=sharing
Nice graph, but exponencial growth cannot last forever
Well then if thats true all my mining equipment shall return hard!!! No idea how you came up with or want to even understand it, but I hope it happens.
The excel modeling is really low level statistics crap. Not very accurate outside of a several month window. However I explored the validity of log linearity of the bitcoin price and why it should trace an exponential curve while it is this young here:
http://altoidnerd.wordpress.com/
I described a more intricate model and found the price depends strongly on the effective supply (which it should) and made some assumptions about the way the "news" of bitcoin spreads and generated 100's of plots in mathematica and left code in another drive on my blog, linked above.
Well then if thats true all my mining equipment shall return hard!!! No idea how you came up with or want to even understand it, but I hope it happens.
I fit the logarithm of bitcoin's price to a line in excel which produced the prediction August 25, 2014
The fit derives from this linear fit of the log of the price
The excel sheet is here
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B2HU2oGcAN_SbDRHZmFsWldSX0E&usp=sharing
The fit derives from this linear fit of the log of the price
The excel sheet is here
https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B2HU2oGcAN_SbDRHZmFsWldSX0E&usp=sharing
Yes in the end, but I guess im not as certain as most people it wont take a nice dive first. Anything can happen we just have to sit back and watch.
They will go up and down in value, but further up in the end.
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