Topic: When will Butterfly Labs (BFL) run out of money? - page 3. (Read 12358 times)
I think bfl is done too, they made their own grave. (see my sig)
To be honest I am surprised they even got that far as producing two of their low end products. Might have been assembled with a skillet and toaster oven technique... At this rate.. oh well. 
Pics of FPGA Single assembly last year:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wondering-where-your-bfl-singles-are-90333
Right around the time people realise this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/490000-avalon-chips-already-ordered-150t-hashrate-spike-coming-in-august-181982
they'll be fine. the recent demo unit hype will ensure plenty of preorders.
Prerecords of what? YouTube Videos channel or line in the queue for next year eventually?But as i already told they will probably will not run out of money in that case
they'll be fine. the recent demo unit hype will ensure plenty of preorders.
Considering they have a working chip and the amount of orders they have been bringing in before they even had a working product, they would have no problem finding additional VC funding at this point. A start up project being literally sold out before you even have a prototype is almost unheard of.
Had the chip on the other hand been a bust and needed a complete redesign then this discussion would have been a lot more interesting. The only thing atm that could be a bit worrisome is the actual cost of making each pre-order unit, this is more about how fast they can make back the initial RnD costs though.
Had the chip on the other hand been a bust and needed a complete redesign then this discussion would have been a lot more interesting. The only thing atm that could be a bit worrisome is the actual cost of making each pre-order unit, this is more about how fast they can make back the initial RnD costs though.
The answer is simple. As long people are putting more and more money into BFL venture they will no run out of money anytime soon. As long people want a refund 100% of the customers the had run out of money a LONG time ago 
When will you run out of BFL threads?
You never have enough threads when doing calculations that can be computed massively parallel! 
I think that depends on the price of Bitcoin. I'm pretty sure they leveraged their way into the rally to remain profitable, but now that's over it might go down pretty quick.
To be honest I am surprised they even got that far as producing two of their low end products. Might have been assembled with a skillet and toaster oven technique... At this rate.. oh well.
To be honest I am surprised they even got that far as producing two of their low end products. Might have been assembled with a skillet and toaster oven technique... At this rate.. oh well.
When will you run out of BFL threads?
I would like to discuss the probability of Butterfly Labs running out of money.
This would have serious implications:
- no more refunds
- no ASIC products
- no support for FGPA products
I don't know when their Venture Capital partners put an end to it (they surely won't wait forever to see a return on invest), so this discussion will be solely about pre order money.
While watching Butterfly Labs Company Video I was thinking: What are those employes actually doing? Besides looking busy on the soldering stations for the video and moving (empty?) boxes around with forklifters ...
6 months have passed since BFLs estimated ASIC shipping date (October 2012) and they have not shipped as single ASIC product to one of their customers. What did BFL workers do all day long in the last 6 month?
Labor costs must be a huge cash burner for BFL.
Yesterday BFL has finally managed to ship something that's supposed to be a Jalapeno to a technical reviewer: BFL Jalapeno Unboxing and Demo. Although it's not passively cooled any more and needs way more than the 5 Watt it was originally designed for.
It seems BFL simply took a Single SC casing, heatsink and fan for this Jalapeno2.0 thingy. While watching this video I noticed how incredibly loud the fan was. It seems to be running at maximum speed. Which means it's barely able to handle the 30 Watt of this device.
A few calculations: 5.5GHs at 30 Watt means:
- Jalapeno: 5.5GH/s at 30 Watt
- Little Single SC: 30GH/s at 163 Watt
- Single SC: 60GH/s at 327 Watt
- Mini Rig SC: 1500GH/s at 8181 Watt (!!!)
If the fan/heatsink is barely able to handle 30 Watt, how is it supposed to handle 163 or 327 Watt? No way in hell can it do that!
Which means, besides the Mini Rig Casings, BFL can also throw away all their Single and Little Single casings, PCBs, fans and heatsinks. Or maybe reuse a few of them for the "new" Jalapeno2.0.
Which means: More (of our pre order) money down the drain ...
My best guess is that BFL starts shipping what they have: Jalapenos. And only Jalapenos. Which will leave lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers behind.
I highly doubt they can manage to ship 400 units a day (Josh brought that number up) - I fear it will be more like 40 per day. Or 4 ;-)
Summarized:
- lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers want a refund: negative cashflow
- existing Jalapeno customers get their products: negative cashflow (because BFL already has the pre order money, but has to pay labor costs)
- a few new Jalapeno customers: positive cashflow
But will that be enough for BFL to survive?
What do you think?
Disclaimer: All this is of course speculation, based on the little facts that are available from BFL.
This would have serious implications:
- no more refunds
- no ASIC products
- no support for FGPA products
I don't know when their Venture Capital partners put an end to it (they surely won't wait forever to see a return on invest), so this discussion will be solely about pre order money.
While watching Butterfly Labs Company Video I was thinking: What are those employes actually doing? Besides looking busy on the soldering stations for the video and moving (empty?) boxes around with forklifters ...
6 months have passed since BFLs estimated ASIC shipping date (October 2012) and they have not shipped as single ASIC product to one of their customers. What did BFL workers do all day long in the last 6 month?
Labor costs must be a huge cash burner for BFL.
Yesterday BFL has finally managed to ship something that's supposed to be a Jalapeno to a technical reviewer: BFL Jalapeno Unboxing and Demo. Although it's not passively cooled any more and needs way more than the 5 Watt it was originally designed for.
It seems BFL simply took a Single SC casing, heatsink and fan for this Jalapeno2.0 thingy. While watching this video I noticed how incredibly loud the fan was. It seems to be running at maximum speed. Which means it's barely able to handle the 30 Watt of this device.
A few calculations: 5.5GHs at 30 Watt means:
- Jalapeno: 5.5GH/s at 30 Watt
- Little Single SC: 30GH/s at 163 Watt
- Single SC: 60GH/s at 327 Watt
- Mini Rig SC: 1500GH/s at 8181 Watt (!!!)
If the fan/heatsink is barely able to handle 30 Watt, how is it supposed to handle 163 or 327 Watt? No way in hell can it do that!
Which means, besides the Mini Rig Casings, BFL can also throw away all their Single and Little Single casings, PCBs, fans and heatsinks. Or maybe reuse a few of them for the "new" Jalapeno2.0.
Which means: More (of our pre order) money down the drain ...
My best guess is that BFL starts shipping what they have: Jalapenos. And only Jalapenos. Which will leave lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers behind.
I highly doubt they can manage to ship 400 units a day (Josh brought that number up) - I fear it will be more like 40 per day. Or 4 ;-)
Summarized:
- lots of angry Single, Little Single and Mini Rig customers want a refund: negative cashflow
- existing Jalapeno customers get their products: negative cashflow (because BFL already has the pre order money, but has to pay labor costs)
- a few new Jalapeno customers: positive cashflow
But will that be enough for BFL to survive?
What do you think?
Disclaimer: All this is of course speculation, based on the little facts that are available from BFL.
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