Topic: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) (Read 2606 times)

Can't wait to see what this chart looks like a month from now.

Congrats to the three people who voted today. As there's little more to discuss about this topic, I will be opening a new thread to put any future revisions of this chart in. Final chart:

Most likely the last day was today. Here's the chart:

Charts:

And how we got there:

(I know the date is wrong; too lazy to fix it right now).

Today's (no time to post analysis, sorry):

Cool! A good diagram .. Can subscribe to this diagram?

For the forseeable future, I'll try to keep the chart updated (in this thread until it finishes, I guess). Before the chart though, some numbers:

Today's open was USD 5.0, slightly (+1.0%) up from yesterday. This relative stability is expected as long as the calm period beginning late February lasts. 365 days ago, on 2011-05-03, the open was USD 3.2, significantly (+5.5%) up from 2011-05-02. This massive gain was not unprecedented; in fact, on 2011-05-01 the open was USD 3.5. Significant increases continued for the next day of May, +6.6% on the fourth. On the fifth, a slight decrease occurred, -0.1%. The sixth brought a moderate decrease, -2.1%, before another significant increase occurred on the seventh (3.5%). In total, the increase for the first part of May is not substantial enough to permit a likely passage through parity.

If our stability continues, it will take until 2012-05-10 to finally hit parity (and, because of the inflated open on that day, surpass it by far). Past that point, we will likely not return to a positive 365-day change until after the June 2011 bubble pops; even then, it will take a very long time. A resurfacing is possible in August, likely in September, and barring a cataclysmic event for Bitcoin nearly certain by November.

Without further ado, here's the chart reporting about today's slight slide (but still a good 50% buffer). It won't go much lower until the 10^th.

Weighted average is an excellent statistic too, which I happen to have in my spreadsheet. Only issue is that it's one day behind (the open is almost immediately available). Here's a chart (made now, but information up until yesterday):



Edit: Almost forgot, here's an interday:


As predicted, there was a recovery for May 1. Here's the new chart:


We won't have another chance till the 7^th, I believe.

love this topic subscribing.

I only doubt opening price is meaningful. Would have picked weighted average or so instead.

This chart is going to be fun to watch for during May and June.  Please keep it updated.

what is it your trying to sell us?
the infamous 2012-05-10 

I must be getting old if I'm dating things a year in the past .

Here are some charts:



We missed the chance to reach parity 2012-04-30, and it's going to be hard to reach parity until at least 2012-05-03. We won't have a real chance (I would say >5%) until 2012-05-07, three days before the infamous 2012-05-10.

No, it would have to be 2012-05-10. Gee, aren't we clever today

Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

Yeah, but only the open price matters. I guess I'll emphasize that in the OP (it's in the poll question, but nobody reads that).

As an aside, I made a chart demonstrating how close we're getting now:

The spike happened on the 10th.... so people ought be picking the 9th?

To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance.

Oh, right. That makes sense, but it's still unusual in that none of the dates around it were picked. The issue is, the thread did say 365 days ago and not a year ago. February 29 sort of messes that reasoning up.